UN monitors started their mission in Syria this week amid warnings of catastrophe should they fail, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus UN monitors toured various areas of Syria this week in order to confirm that regime military forces had been withdrawn from the country's towns and cities in line with the peace plan proposed by the UN and Arab League envoy, former UN secretary-general Kofi Anan. On 19 April, the monitors visited the village of Deraa in the south of the country where the uprising began 13 months ago, and only one person was killed the day they visited. However, as soon as the monitors had returned to Damascus, 15 others were reportedly killed by regime forces in surrounding rural areas. On Saturday, six international monitors visited the city of Homs, with the shelling stopping for their visit. It was the first time in four months that no missiles had been used to bombard residential neighbourhoods, though local people feared that the shelling would resume when the monitors left. Members of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA), made up of defectors from the regular army and volunteers, called on the UN monitors to leave two of their members to protect civilians and guarantee the safety of the city. The monitors agreed, and two inspectors were stationed there. Hours before the UN mission arrived calm reigned in Homs, with regime forces having stopped the shelling, tanks being concealed, and pro- regime militias vanishing. Communications were restored to the city to make it seem as if the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was implementing the terms of the Anan peace plan. However, as they talked with residents of the Al-Khalediya district of Homs, the monitors heard gunshots in neighbouring districts under the control of regime forces, though no casualties were reported. Opposition activists said that before the arrival of the monitors the army had concealed tanks inside government institutions, dug ditches to hide armoured vehicles, and covered military equipment with dirt. Meanwhile, pro-regime militias had hidden in vacant houses, and intelligence agents had put on police uniforms. Light and medium weapons had not been withdrawn owing to fears that demonstrations could break out and that these could develop into permanent sit-ins. The presence of the monitors in Homs stopped the bloodshed for one day at least, but observers were left wondering whether the army would resume its bombing of the city after the monitors left or whether they would observe the ceasefire. There have also been questions as to whether the monitors will be able to police the whole of Syria. On Saturday, the UN Security Council unanimously agreed a further resolution expanding the mission to include 300 unarmed military observers and to provide logistical support, including the provision of air transport. Such a large number of inspectors could deter the regime from using heavy artillery against residential areas and could force it to withdraw its military and security forces from towns and cities as a first step in the peace plan drawn up by the UN and agreed to by Syria. The observers will remain in Syria for three months to monitor the fragile ceasefire, though there are fears that the ceasefire may fail before the three-month deadline. The Syrian regime agreed to the plan ten days ago, but the ceasefire remains delicate and could disintegrate, with the country's opposition claiming that the regime has not withdrawn its forces but has merely concealed them. The regime will use any pretext to violate the ceasefire, opposition figures say, perhaps by claiming that its troops need to respond to armed attack. There has been debate about how successful the UN mission will turn out to be, since a similar Arab attempt failed a few months ago. The Anan plan is also not being implemented under chapter VII of the UN charter, which means that the Syrian regime is not necessarily obligated to abide by it. Commenting on the plan, the opposition has said that monitoring the security forces and militias on the ground will be complicated if not impossible because the regime will likely deny responsibility for any violence and will cast the blame on other parties. The release of political prisoners is also unlikely to take place as planned, opposition sources say, since the regime has transferred detainees to secret compounds and military barracks where monitors are not allowed. The regime is likely to deny all knowledge of the fate of the thousands of missing people, they add, and there have been doubts about the impartiality of the monitors, since some of them may be sympathetic to the regime. The six-point Anan plan is not limited to returning the army to its barracks, but is also intended to open the door to a political solution to the crisis, even if thus far efforts have focused on ending the violence in the country. Among the provisions of the plan are calls to end the violence in Syria, to withdraw the army to its barracks, allow the delivery of humanitarian aid, and launch a dialogue between the government and opposition with the aim of advancing political transition in Syria. According to the FSA, the regime is not genuinely committed to the Anan plan, but intends to undermine the monitors' mission. The FSA has called on the international community to carry out "surgical strikes" against regime targets in order to halt the bloodshed. It has also asked that safe zones be established on Syria's northern, western and southern borders and that weapons be given to opposition fighters to allow them to fight regime forces. "The international community is committed to implementing the Anan plan. But because we know that the regime is incapable of abiding by it, we are preparing ourselves for the next phase," Marah Biqaie, spokeswoman for the National Action Group for Liberating Syria, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We intend to go to the UN General Assembly and demand the application of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) procedures. Some members of the opposition have already started working with US lawyers to prepare a legal brief that will be sent to the UN." R2P is a principle that the UN adopted in 2005 after events in the former Yugoslavia under which it is a state's responsibility to protect its citizens. Should it not do so, then sovereignty cannot be used to provide carte blanche for a state to do what it likes, or to prevent foreign intervention. For the time being, the US, together with Europe and the countries making up the so-called Friends of Syria group, has preferred to move slowly to see whether the UN mission will have positive results. However, it has also said that it will not support extending the mission if the Syrian government does not implement the Anan plan to the letter, and it has said that if all else fails it will seek action against Syria under chapter VII of the UN charter, which authorises the Security Council to use force to impose its decisions. Russia is the most important obstacle to moves in this direction, though Russian approval of the monitors may indicate a change in the country's policy towards Syria. Returning from a visit to Moscow as part of a delegation representing the opposition inside the country, Haitham Manaa, deputy coordinator of the Forces for Democratic Change, told the Weekly that "if the Russian government thinks about its interests and future in Syria, it will lean towards democratic change and the civilian popular movement." "We felt that our respective viewpoints were much closer [during the visit], and the Russian role has become more promising. The Russians said they did not support the dictatorial and despotic legacy in Syria, and that they were concerned about the unity of the people, integrity of the state and peaceful transition by the Syrians themselves." Russian participation in resolving the Syrian crisis and bringing about political transition in the country would be welcome, Manaa said. While neither the Syrian opposition nor the US or Europe wants the Anan plan to fail, there are concerns that it is being undermined by the regime in order for the latter to buy time and to gain advantages on the ground. The UN is taking a serious risk in sending monitors to Syria to supervise a still-fragile ceasefire, since the climate needed for the observers to carry out their mission effectively is still not in place and the intentions of the regime and some international players are ill-defined. As a result, many observers believe that despite early positive signs disaster could still be in the offing.
