Asma El-Husseini observes a country in a state of shock All signs suggest that the southern Sudanese have overwhelmingly opted for secession in the recent plebiscite on self-determination for the south. Although the voting took place under relatively peaceful conditions, implementation of the outcome will undoubtedly sweep both the north and the south of Sudan like a tsunami. Not only will the country split into two, but the effects of the split will strike deep into both halves. Above all, there will be little hope for lasting stability on either side unless both governments undertake their responsibilities to implement the required arrangements and handle the pending issues between them in a sensible manner. When I arrived in Khartoum just before the referendum, a cloud of gloomy suspense hung over the capital. The beginning of the New Year marked the 55th anniversary of the independence of Sudan. Yet, this ordinarily joyful occasion turned into something of a wake when the people of the north realised that the south would soon be severed from the country. Numerous assemblies in Khartoum turned into dirges lamenting the end of the long-vaunted million square kilometres of territory and into sessions of self-reproach and recrimination over the fate of the nation whose founding fathers had fought and sacrificed their lives for independence and sewed the seeds for democracy, dignity and peaceful coexistence. Sadly, that legacy has vanished; the South is on the verge of departure and people in the north are wondering whether other parts of the country will follow suit. Meanwhile, hordes of southerners who had lived in the north for decades are streaming southwards, raising the question as to how the nascent government of the South will cope with this additional burden. Now that secession has become a near certainty, the political arena in the north is seething. The polarisation has never been sharper between the ruling National Congress Party that has no intention of relinquishing power and the opposition forces who have begun call for the ruling party to step down and for the resignation of President Omar Al-Bashir. Never before has the opposition been so open and so adamant. Even when the president announced during his independence day address that he would form a broad-based coalition government the majority of the opposition rejected his proposal, insisting instead upon a constitutional convention and interim government consisting of all political forces that would resolve the problem of Darfur, undertake the post-secession obligations and hold fair and free elections. Perhaps it was the conflicting statements and positions of Al-Bashir and his party that inspired the opposition's tenacity on these points. Up to a few days ago, the president and his government were issuing ultimatums to opposition forces, ordering them to repent, and threatening to establish an Islamic state and constitution that does not recognise diversity. In addition, the majority of the opposition does not trust the current government. They say that it has broken every promise it has ever made and relegated the parties it had struck agreements with to a decorative margin as it exercised power as it wished. Al-Bashir;s recent remarks have brought the opposition together as never before, at least at the theoretical level, in Khartoum and elsewhere in the north, in Darfur, South Kordofan and the Blue Nile states, giving the Popular Congress, the People's Movement, the Umma Party, the Communist Party, the Democratic Unionist Party and others common cause. The opposition's anger was undoubtedly fired by the belief that the current government is chiefly responsible for the forthcoming secession of the South and that it is thus guilty of nothing less than a crime against the nation. The opposition's determination to oust the current government is strengthened by the frustration at the lingering problem of Darfur, which remains unresolved after eight years of negotiations, and by the fear that if the government remains in power it will relentlessly steer the country toward renewed warfare with the south and toward the disintegration of the rest of the country. What has poured further fuel on the opposition's fire is the utter disdain that the government displays toward opposition. The ruling party did not only express its contempt in statements that were offensive to the leaders of the opposition parties but in acts of brutality, the most recent of which was the savage assault by security forces against a meeting of the Sudanese Umma Party in the course of which they fractured the skull and broke the hand of the political activist and wife of the Umma Party leader Maryam Al-Sadeg Al-Mahdi, and wounded many others. Security forces have also recently arrested the Islamist leader and head of the People's Congress Party Hassan Al-Turabi. Considered the spearhead of the Sudanese opposition, Al-Turabi and his party have called for the downfall of the current government. Shortly before his arrest, Al-Turabi warned of a Tunisia-style revolt in Sudan and declared that any regime would be better than the current one which would only shatter Sudan into fragments. A major factor that will strengthen the hand of the opposition and win it popular support is the soaring prices of goods and services, which places severe strains on broad segments of the Sudanese populace. The opposition also believes that it will receive international support in the forthcoming phase in which the ruling National Congress Party government is expected to come under increasing international pressure. The Al-Bashir regime is of a different opinion, of course. It remains complacent, confident of the overall weakness, internal divisions and financial problems of the opposition, as well as relying on the army, police and other security forces that it has at its command to nip any opposition movement in the bud. Government officials have issued numerous warnings to the opposition, the most recent being the Khartoum police chief's challenge, "Whoever wants to take to the streets, go ahead and try." Still, there are certain concrete circumstances that should make all Sudanese parties keep a cool head. The situation in Sudan today is very different from that which prevailed at the time of the October and April uprisings against the regimes of former presidents Ibrahim Abboud and Jaafar Al-Numeiri. Sudan today is extremely fragile. International forces are on the ground, the peripheries are thick with weapons and armed movements, and Khartoum reels under international pressures, sanctions and warrants. The situation, in short, is extremely fraught and complex. The longer it remains this way, the greater are the chances of mounting tensions, renewed outbreaks of violence and additional fragmentation. Surely such spectres should give the Sudanese people pause to think of a different approach to crisis management and a new way to solve their country's problems collectively.
