Can the referendum on self-rule in southern Sudan be postponed, asks Asmaa El-Husseini The countdown has begun for the referendum on self-determination that is scheduled in south Sudan on 9 January 2011. The world is closely monitoring the situation in Sudan with concern over the possibility of a resumption of a civil war. Indirect regional and international warnings that the referendum should be postponed until pending issues between north and south are resolved have now become shrill as the date for the plebiscite approaches. Leaders in the south are adamant about holding the referendum without delay for any reason, as are United States President Barack Obama and his administration and other Western governments. There are doubts, however, in Arab capitals, as expressed by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal. In fact, Abul-Gheit went beyond suggesting that voting should be postponed to a later date by agreement from both sides. He proposed a confederacy between north and south to pre-empt a catastrophe, because Cairo -- which is very close to the Sudanese issue -- feels one is imminent. The official voiced Egypt's concerns that Cairo is preparing for a backlash, namely an influx of Sudanese refugees if war breaks out between the two sides. Perhaps international parties should sit up and pay attention instead of ramming through the referendum and ignoring needed preparations. These worries are magnified by statements by UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos during a recent visit to Juba. Amos warned that balloting on time could result in unprecedented risks and a humanitarian crisis if violence breaks out. The US position is detailed in The Washington Post, which noted that as time runs out, there is rising concern inside the Obama administration about the possibility of reigniting civil war in Sudan, and that it is mulling over incentives to persuade Sudan's leadership to cooperate with the referendum and make it peaceful. American researcher John Prendergast, the co- founder of the Enough Project and a strong critic of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir, warned that the death toll in another war will be unprecedented. He criticised Obama's Sudan policies as being weak and ineffective. Prendergast, who was an adviser on South issues during the Bush administration, also faulted US Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration for being conciliatory with Al-Bashir. Christian and Jewish organisations, as well as African American groups agree with him. It is most likely that any attempt to postpone balloting will be welcomed by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by Al-Bashir, as well as other parties in northern Sudan who are apprehensive about the outcome. This apprehension is rooted in regional and international concerns and beyond. Most Sudanese players are convinced that if their country is divided under current circumstances, without resolving outstanding issues, this would only result in a dispute of the results and lead to violence before, during and after the plebiscite. If the country is partitioned, they expect this to result in two hostile warring states. But this would not be the end of the issue in Sudan because it would cause instability in a number of regions in the north, or both north and south, or the disintegration of Sudan altogether. In the south, it's a different story. The masses there have been mobilised by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the government in the South in preparation for the referendum. They promote it as the day to end the north's colonial control and liberation from injustice, oppression and war which they accuse the north of subjecting them to since the exit of British occupiers in 1956. Accordingly, the call for secession has gained strength in the south, even by SPLM members who in the past -- with their late leader John Garang -- had called for a united Sudan based on equality and justice. The south has undertaken many preparations ahead of the anticipated day. They have written a new national anthem and recalled a large number of their people in Khartoum and other northern cities, and even expatriates from around the world, in anticipation of building their new nation. Despite all attempts, this deliverance from the north which the south is intently preparing for will not occur as smoothly as they anticipate, or as the international community and some elements in the north would like. This is because of the character of northern and southern Sudan, which are like conjoined twins sharing one heart, lung and other vital organs. Their separation would require several complicated surgical procedures which threaten the lives of both. Sudan cannot be partitioned without severe side-effects because this is more than dividing two segments of land in the north and south, but a division of a people, interests, history and future. Most important is the oil which is produced in the south and exported by the north. There are also joint debts. The division of peoples is a problem. Not just the southerners in the north and the northern people in the south, but the wide belt inhabited by millions of Sudanese along the border between north and south stretching nearly 2,000 kilometres. This region will either become a place of peaceful co-existence and joint interests between the two, or it will disintegrate into a line of fire and destruction for both north and south. Abdullah Massar, adviser to the Sudanese president, says that borders have not yet been demarcated, security arrangements have yet to be decided, and the border issues of Abyei need to be settled. Massar noted that other pending matters are post-partition arrangements for oil, citizenship, debts, agreement on referendums in the regions of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, and other issues which require a clear vision between the two sides whether they are divided or united, as well as technical issues. He warned that holding the plebiscite before agreeing on these criteria will make its outcome an issue of contention within the north and south, and in all of Sudan which is awash with tribal conflicts. Meanwhile, SPLM Secretary-General and Minister of Peace in the southern government Pagan Amum rejected Cairo's proposal of creating a confederacy. Amum stated that during a recent trip to Juba, both Abul-Gheit and Egypt's Chief of General Intelligence Omar Suleiman reiterated Egypt's support of holding the referendum on time and respecting the will of the people of south Sudan. He suggested that anyone who has any more ideas about the future relationship between north and south "should first work for holding the plebiscite on time, respecting its outcome and ensuring its implementation." Amum added that the relationship between north and south will be decided after the referendum, and will be based on the interests of the Sudanese people whether they are united or separated. It will be a relationship built on accord and cooperation, he assured, with the aim of building peace and achieving prosperity for the people of Sudan. It will be very difficult for the south to accept any delay on the referendum. It has adamantly worked to speed up separation and focussed on resolving internal divisions to maintain united ranks in the south regarding holding the referendum on time. The leaders in the south have recently become more critical of the north, accusing it of attempting to delay voting in order to divide southern ranks. Sudanese sources doubt that the SPLM and the government in the south would agree to postponing the referendum, saying: "If they did that, it would be digging their own grave for two reasons. First, any delay would give Al-Bashir's party, the NCP, time to reorganise itself in the south and work against the interests of the SPLM and the government there. Second, if one party accepts and the other rejects postponement, this could divide the SPLM and the government, who are currently united over the referendum." Sudanese sources in the south asserted that the NCP "is launching a psychological war against the SPLM and its leadership to undermine its positions and will. First, they quote Balah Al-Ghaeb who predicts that the south will vote for unity and that [Southern Sudan President] Salva Kiir Mayardit will flee to a neighbouring country on the day of voting. "Then they plant the seeds of doubt among southern leaders by disseminating statements by Mayardit criticising his deputy Riek Machar, or propagating fables that Machar will rule the south. They are also attempting to sabotage relations between the south and Arab states by circulating alleged statements by Mayardit that he intends to establish ties with Israel after partition and open an Israeli consulate in Juba, or by claiming that Israelis are training the army in the south and supplying it with weapons." photo: Reuters
