January's referendum on southern self-determination may not be the last of its kind in Sudan, writes Asmaa El-Husseini As the countdown continues for January's referendum on self-determination for the south of the country in Sudan, the signatories to the peace treaty, the National Congress Party (NCP) that rules the north of the country and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) that controls the south, have begun to put pressure on each other in search of a last-minute compromise without reaching solutions on any of the many unresolved issues. Because of time constraints, some of these issues will be postponed until after the referendum, which is viewed by the government in the south and the international community as a fixed date that cannot be changed. However, amid calls for a delay in the referendum until unresolved issues are settled, and other calls for tough issues like the Abyei region and north-south borders to be postponed until after the balloting, many observers have begun to wonder whether the referendum will indeed be able to achieve peace and settle differences. Meanwhile, each side has been trying to fortify its position and put pressure on the other. The SPLM has accused the NCP of arming and harbouring southern opposition politicians and armed militias, with a view to destabilising the south. A conference was held in the southern city of Juba a few weeks ago at the behest of southern Sudanese president Salva Kiir Mayardit, in order to decide on steps to be taken in the south after the referendum, including the formation of a national unity government that would include all the southern Sudanese parties. Elections would then take place in the south two years later. For its part, the NCP has accused the SPLM of using armed groups in the western province of Darfur to put pressure on Khartoum. These accusations have escalated recently in the light of increased movement by Darfur groups towards southern Sudan, as the peace process on Darfur, which is sponsored by the international community and African countries, stalls in Doha. The Darfur Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the largest rebel group, has withdrawn from the negotiations, and Abdel-Wahed Mohamed Nour, a leader of the SPLM, has also refused to participate in the talks. Khartoum is continuing attempts at negotiation in Doha, but it has yet to reach any agreement. Despite efforts to bring the JEM back to the negotiating table, the group has insisted that the negotiations should be revised to include Egypt, Libya and Eritrea in the process, that deadlines on the talks should be removed, and that impartial mediators the group considers are not biased towards Khartoum should be included. The group is also demanding that freedom of movement be accorded to its leaders. JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim is now living in Libya after Chad, which has moved closer to Sudan, destroyed his passport and identity papers in the Chadian capital Ndjamena. Khartoum has refused to meet the JEM's demands, not wanting a resolution of the Darfur situation before the referendum date on the south on 9 January 2011. Over recent days, Juba has become a magnet for the Darfur rebel movements, with meetings taking place between leader of the SPLM Mini Arko Minawi, Nour, and Abul-Qassem Imam, a leading figure in the SPLM. Minawi signed the Abuja Treaty with Khartoum in 2006, and accordingly became president of the interim government in Darfur and senior deputy to the Sudanese president. However, since the country's last elections he has not acted as deputy to the president, and he has often complained that Khartoum has only implemented some 15 per cent of the Abuja Treaty, frequently storming out of meetings in Khartoum for Darfur and only returning as a result of the intercession of Sudanese vice-president Ali Othman Taha. Recently, Minawi refused to meet with Taha in Juba, indicating that the rebellion in Darfur may be on the brink of restarting. Nour is the leader of a breakaway faction of the SPLM that broke with Minawi after the latter signed the Abuja Treaty and refused to participate in peace negotiations. Imam reached an agreement with the government and became governor of West Darfur State, but was removed from office in the post-election shuffle. Khartoum has accused the SPLM and the southern government of assisting JEM forces across the border from south Darfur, asserting that this support has helped the Darfur rebels advance their operations over recent weeks into areas of Kordofan and south Darfur. Khartoum also claims that neighbouring Uganda has been providing support to the rebels in Darfur. In response, the rebel groups in Darfur have accused the northern government of escalating confrontation in Darfur, claiming that it plans to close the refugee camps and reach a hasty solution before the referendum on the south takes place. These developments spell risks for the future of Sudan, since they may indicate that the situation will not be resolved by partitioning the country into north and south and that there will continue to be tensions that could expand along the length of the 2,000km border. Even more seriously, January's referendum on self- determination for southern Sudan may not be the last such referendum or the end of attempts to carve up the country. On the contrary, it may be just the beginning. Other than the issues of Abyei and the border between north and south, Darfur remains a hot spot where talk of using arms to topple the regime remains current. Observers also say that Darfur residents may also demand self-determination if a solution for the area is not found. In the Nubia Mountains and Blue Nile regions, local populations are also scheduled to be consulted about their future, with Khartoum and Juba disagreeing about the procedure to be followed. Some southern leaders believe that these regions will eventually join the south, seeing them as part of the southern struggle for independence from the north. Groups from the Nubia Mountains have already declared that they will organise a large protest march in the United States on 16 December in order to demand self-determination. Claims by the SPLM that regime forces have attacked areas under southern control have been denied by Khartoum, but there are nevertheless concerns about escalation. Meanwhile, disputes over the registration process for the referendum continue to intensify, and the NCP has signalled that it may not recognise the results in January.
