Even with a new government finally in place in Iraq, the country is still on the brink of disaster, writes Salah Hemeid Ordinary Iraqis expressed their relief last week at the fact that a new government was finally in place after nine months of gridlock, hoping that this will now be a step towards peace and stability in the beleaguered nation. However, while the breakthrough may have ended the governmental impasse, the crisis has only highlighted the fragility of Iraqi state-building more than seven and a half years after the US-led invasion of the country. The year 2010 did not start off well for Iraq as violence persisted and politicians' bickering raised concerns about the country's ability to get back onto its feet after the US withdrawal next year. Thousands were killed, including civilian bystanders, army and security officers and government officials, and thousands others wounded in a string of suicide bombings and attacks in Iraq throughout the year. The violence proved that the Iraqi security forces are not yet able to protect civilians in terms of numbers, equipment and training, while insurgents tied to Al-Qaeda continue to launch attacks, spreading an air of danger in many Iraqi cities. Critics maintain that the newly trained Iraqi armed forces are incompetent and sharply divided along ethnic and sectarian lines and that they cannot be expected to succeed in ending the violence, raising questions about whether the remaining US troops in Iraq will be able to exit the country as many Iraqis desire. The United States has reiterated that it will stick to plans to withdraw all its troops from Iraq by December next year, but Washington might have second thoughts if the new government fails to restore stability and insurgents continue their campaign to bring it down. In addition to the security problems, the newly formed government has to end the chaos in Iraq and deal with multiple political, social and economic setbacks. One of the biggest problems is the deep schism facing the country, which needs to be bridged by national reconciliation. Reconciliation of Iraq's ethno-religious communities is seen as a necessary precursor to stemming the country's sectarian violence. There are dangers that the country is descending into a situation in which it is becoming less tolerant in terms of religious freedoms and human rights, as the government fails to deal with increasing fundamentalism. An intensifying campaign is putting more pressure on the government to go after religious fundamentalists, operating in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, who seek to impose their strict interpretation of Islam. There have been widespread reports that these groups have ordered social clubs, bars and alcohol shops to close down and that they are intimidating people who do not follow their version of Islamic values. The crackdown has included shutting music and drama departments in arts institutes, banning arts festivals and circuses, and imposing strict codes of behaviour. The moves have heightened concerns among academics and intellectuals that Iraq, now emerging from foreign occupation and war, is displaying all the tendencies of a Taliban-like Islamic state. The year 2010 was also among the worst for the country's Christians, with thousands fleeing their homes and more leaving the country during 2010 than at any time since the US-led invasion. The latest exodus follows a massacre led by Al-Qaeda at a Christian Catholic Church in central Baghdad on 31 October, which left some 60 people dead, almost 100 maimed and an already apprehensive community terrified. Since then, the terrorist group has targeted Christians in their homes, including family members of those who survived the attack. In Baghdad, as well as in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, Christmas services have been cancelled for fear of further violence. After more than seven years of war, the Iraqi economy is in tatters, with the country depending largely on imports for nearly everything from cars to tomatoes. Unemployment is among the highest in any country worldwide. The country also still lacks basic services. Electricity is in short supply, medicines are available mainly through the black market, and there are long lines for fuel in a country that has the third largest oil reserves in the world. Another serious problem is corruption, which is spectacular even by world standards. Iraq is ranked fifth from the bottom of the pressure group Transparency International's list of 180 nations. Bribery and outright theft surround virtually every Iraqi government department, with some of the kickbacks being used by rival politicians to cement their power bases in order to perpetuate their hegemony in the country. Some two million Iraqi refugees are either abroad or displaced inside Iraq after being forced to flee their homes to safe havens because of violence and sectarian threats. Today, most of Baghdad's neighbourhoods are shielded by high concrete walls from the rubble-strewn streets and are cordoned off by the security forces as residents are trapped in fear of a renewal of sectarian conflict. However, the good news in 2010 was that Iraq increased its oil exports. New Petroleum Minister Abdel-Karim Luaibi said on Wednesday that Iraq's crude oil production had increased by 100,000 barrels a day to 2.5 million barrels. The ministry had announced earlier that sales from Iraqi crude oil exports during the first 11 months of 2010 had reached $46.9 billion. Last year, Iraq's oil revenues reached $41.3 billion, compared with $60 billion in 2008. Iraq might have made other small advances in 2010, especially in avoiding civil war, but the country still has a long way to go. At the end of a long and exhausting year, it is hard to see a clear end in sight. Strengthening the Iraqi state will be hard, especially after the March elections that produced a government many Iraqis consider to be weak, fragmented and incompetent. According to some scenarios for post-2010 Iraq, next year will be crucial as it will see the withdrawal of the remaining US troops. The pullout will mean that the US will no longer have a large foothold in Iraq, leaving the country to local forces and interests as it absorbs the after- effects of the American-led invasion. One scenario is that the national partnership government will succeed in holding the country together and that a strong central government will emerge. This will be able to prevent violence escalating and erupting into all-out civil war. A second scenario would be that the instability in Iraq continues, with the growing confrontation between the country's Sunnis and Shias over power and resources leading the country into chaos. Neighbouring countries will be fearful of the risk of contagion and will try to keep the chaos contained within Iraq's borders. A proxy war could be the result, along the lines of what is happening in Somalia. Another scenario would be the collapse of the government because of sectarian fighting and the country descending into outright civil war. This would most likely lead to Iraq's disintegration with instability spreading to the entire region. The year 2011 will be pivotal for Iraq's future, and that future will be more than anything else determined by the fortunes of the new government. It is to be hoped that Iraq's politicians will not repeat their previous mistakes and that they will stand together to end the people's misery and start rebuilding the devastated country.
