By agreeing on a new election law, Iraqis have removed a roadblock on the way to next year's national ballot. But it is far from being the solution to the country's problems, writes Salah Hemeid Iraq's parliament on Sunday approved plans to hold national elections early next year that are seen as an essential step towards political reconciliation and as paving the way for the country's full sovereignty after the withdrawal of US troops by the end of 2011. The last-minute endorsement of the "explanatory memorandum" during an emergency session convened shortly before midnight came after months of bickering and futile attempts to break an impasse over balloting provisions that would satisfy Iraq's rival sects and groups. Under the new plan, the next Iraqi parliament will be composed of 325 seats to be contested in open lists of candidates from political, sectarian, ethnic and tribal groups. 310 seats will be given to Iraq's 18 provinces, while a further 15 will be distributed among ethnic minorities and the lists that received the most votes. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki hailed the passage of the law as the beginning of "a new era that will help to achieve the aspirations of our people to establish a democratic system". He said that the law would help Iraq to overcome "a difficult period that could have imperilled its security and stability". The Obama administration also applauded Sunday's vote, a step that the US hopes will ease the eventual withdrawal of American troops from the country. White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs called the agreement "a decisive moment for Iraq's democracy". Protracted negotiations over the law governing the elections had lasted more than two months and had got mired in demands from minority Sunnis for a greater political voice and what to them would have been a more favourable distribution of seats in the new parliament. The deadlock started after the country's Sunni Vice-President Tariq Al-Hashimi vetoed a previous law that the Shia and Kurdish legislators had teamed up to pass, opposed by the Sunnis because they considered it unfavourable to their interests. When Shia and Kurdish lawmakers then overturned Al-Hashimi's veto, Sunni lawmakers, enraged that the veto had resulted in a law that they considered even more unfavourable to their interests than the previous one, vowed to reject it. Some Sunni leaders called on their constituencies to take to the streets in protest against the law and even threatened to boycott the election. Al-Hashimi, one of the three members of the country's presidency council, warned that he would also veto the second bill if parliament did not introduce amendments to give adequate seats to Iraqis who had fled abroad, most of them believed to be Sunnis, and address concerns regarding the number of parliamentary seats in predominantly Sunni areas. However, knowing that the Shias and Kurds had enough votes in parliament to override a second veto, the Sunnis finally accepted a compromise that would give them some of the claimed seats. After the passage of the new law, Sunni leaders hailed it as a victory for all Iraqis. "The victor is national consensus," said Sunni parliamentary speaker Iyad Al-Samaraai. Even Al-Hashimi himself endorsed the law as "a historical victory". The original election was scheduled for 16 January, but Iraq's independent electoral commission has ruled out meeting that deadline. On Tuesday, the presidential council, made up of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies, announced that 6 March would be the new date for the elections. Underlining the current fragility of the political process in Iraq, the parliamentary speaker raised the possibility of a further crisis when he said that the delay should prompt an extension of the term of the current parliament. Al-Samaraai noted that the constitution gives a rigid timetable for the election, the expiry of the current parliament and the formation of a new cabinet. If the elections are delayed for a month or so, the term of the existing parliament should be extended for the same period in order to avoid a constitutional and political vacuum, he said. The election, the second national vote in Iraq since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, is seen as a crucial step towards consolidating Iraq's fledging political process and securing US military withdrawal by the end of 2011. However, the protracted battle over the election law has again exposed the sectarian struggle that pushed Iraq to the brink of civil war after the US-led invasion, and it has been a troubling reminder that the country's factions have still not resolved many of the differences that divide them. The latest revisions to the election law raise the possibility that Iraqis will go into the next election as bitterly divided as they were the last time around, when most Sunnis boycotted the balloting. The Kurds, who had originally threatened to boycott the poll because they did not like the way seats had been distributed, said that they had reluctantly accepted the new arrangements, which will give them only 43 seats, far less than the 53 they won in the last election. Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani only agreed to give his negotiators the green light to pass the law after he had received calls from US President Barack Obama and Vice- President Joe Biden. US Ambassador in Iraq Christopher Hill also spent tremendous time and effort pushing for the law to be passed. Iraqi Shias have also expressed their concern that overseas voting could be marred by irregularities and even rigging in countries that host majority Sunni communities, such as Syria and Jordan. While the amendments did not offer any extra seats to Iraqi refugees, the country's Shias are afraid that Arab Sunni governments might use the elections to increase pressure on the Shia-led government. Moreover, the Shias themselves are conflict-prone. As was the case in June's provincial elections, the Shias will enter the national elections sharply divided, with the potential for shifting alliances in their community. There may well be a fierce internecine struggle over who will lead the Shias and the next Iraqi government. A new element might also further complicate the Iraqi political scene after the election. Under the new provisions, the election will be based on a modified open-list system, in which voters will have the choice of voting either for an individual or a list, lessening the influence of unelected party functionaries. Given the loose nature of party alliances in Iraq, candidates who generate more votes, such as tribal chiefs, are expected to demand better treatment, including government positions for those representing their constituencies. Given the contentious nature of Iraqi politics, it is also difficult to expect an end to Iraq's quagmire. A possible rise in insurgent attacks is expected before next year's election and before the withdrawal of US combat troops by the end of August. On Tuesday, a series of orchestrated bombings wrecked several buildings and markets in Baghdad, killing and wounding hundreds of people. There have been at least 14 bombings around the country since last Friday, with more than a dozen people killed and 80 wounded. The threat of political violence linked to the election is a major concern for US forces in the wake of the bloody attacks in Baghdad on 19 August and 25 October this year that killed more than 250 people. For the US military, the election is an important step in plans for withdrawal from Iraq, and the question now is whether the possible political and security chaos will make the Obama administration reconsider that decision.
