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On the brink of an abyss
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 12 - 2010

Rows over the composition and powers of the country's proposed policy-making council have further delayed the formation of a new government, writes Salah Hemeid
Efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to form a new cabinet foundered this week, as the country's political groups failed to agree on terms for setting up a new council supposed to work out and supervise government activities.
On Saturday, Al-Maliki urged would-be partners in the new government to send their nominations for members of the cabinet, signalling that he would likely not form a new government much earlier than the 25 December deadline.
In November, Iraq's main political leaders ended an eight-month period of deadlock following inconclusive elections that pitched Iraqi political and sectarian groups into a fierce power struggle.
Under a power-sharing deal to allow the formation of a new government, Shia politician Al-Maliki retained his position as prime minister and Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani was re-elected as president, while Sunni politician Osama Al-Nujaifi was named as new speaker of the parliament.
The deal also stipulated that former prime minister and leader of the Sunni-backed Al-Iraqiya List Iyad Allawi would be named as head of a newly created national policy- making Council.
Yet, efforts to form the new body, named the National Council for Strategic Policies, have thus far stalled, with the country's political groups differing sharply on its terms of reference and composition.
Allawi has insisted that the council should include all government leaders, senior security officials and party political leaders under his chairmanship and that it should formulate national policies and have veto powers over major government decisions.
Al-Maliki and other Shia leaders have made it clear that the new council should not have the power to veto government decisions and should only function as a consultative body, arguing that anything more would disrupt the activities of the other executive bodies.
The deal was originally proposed by the Obama administration as an incentive to Iraqi Sunnis to join the government, assuring them that the proposed council would have real powers, almost equal to those of the prime minister, and that it would not be merely symbolic or ceremonial.
To support their demands, Iraqi Sunnis have presented a draft law setting out the council's composition at nine members, including Allawi as chairman, the prime minister, the president, the minister of the interior, the minister of defence, the director of intelligence, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan and his prime minister, and leaders of the country's political blocs.
According to the draft law, the chairman would be empowered to invite other members, or cabinet ministers, to serve on the council, and the council's decisions would be binding if 80 per cent of its members voted in favour of a specific resolution.
These terms have been rejected outright by Shia leaders, who have said that they violate the country's constitution, which gives the prime minister far-reaching executive powers, and that they create a two- tier government system.
In order to avoid being reduced to a situation of perceived powerlessness, Shia politicians have warned that they will veto any such draft law if it is introduced to parliament.
The disagreement reflects a deep division among Iraq's rival political blocs over what power-sharing might mean and their attitude towards how Iraq should be governed in future.
Resolving the disagreement will mean making a choice between salvaging the original deal leading to the formation of a new government and seeing the possible collapse of the whole political process.
Allawi has insisted that if Al-Maliki and the Shia leaders do not honour the power- sharing agreement to his satisfaction he will not be part of the new government.
In an interview with the London Times published last week, Allawi threatened to quit the government if his demands were not met. "Power-sharing is not happening," Allawi said. "It is not set to work in a meaningful way... If it does not change, I will not participate."
While Allawi's Al-Iraqiya List won the most seats in the country's March elections, it was unable to gain enough support from other parties to create a majority government. Al-Maliki's State of Law bloc came second in the elections, but was later able to muster enough support to lead a larger Shia coalition that forged an alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis.
In addition to the dispute over hammering out the rules governing the new council and its powers, the rival groups have also not yet agreed on the distribution of cabinet seats, with each trying to get as large a number of portfolios as they can and eyeing key ministries.
There have also been demands that as part of the power-sharing deal a ban on several leaders of Al-Iraqiya, previously disqualified from joining the government on the grounds that they are former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling party, should be lifted.
Thus far, the Shia-controlled Accountability and Justice Committee has not lifted the ban on three prominent leaders of Al-Iraqiya, and some Shia leaders say the move could take months to be made.
If efforts to form a new government stall for much longer, Iraq could face a new period of instability. The constitution requires that president Talabani name a new prime minister if Al-Maliki fails to form a government within 30 days of his nomination.
At the time of striking the power-sharing deal, Al-Maliki said he would be able to meet the 25 December constitutional deadline, ending the political deadlock that began with inconclusive parliamentary elections nine months ago.
However, some of Al-Maliki's aides are now suggesting that a new government be formed even if disagreements over the Council and bans on former members of the ruling Baath Party are not resolved.
This could be a recipe for further trouble, though further stalling in the process of forming a new government could also easily upset the relative calm that has prevailed in the country following the announcement of the power-sharing deal.
On Sunday, at least 15 people were killed and 44 injured in two suicide bomb attacks in Iraq. In the western province of Anbar, 13 people were killed and 41 injured in a suicide attack near a checkpoint.
Another suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt targeted a group of Shia pilgrims in the Iraqi city of Baquba, some 60km northeast of Baghdad. The attack killed two people and injured three.
At least four people were killed and 17 wounded in a suicide bombing north of Baghdad on Monday. The suicide bomber struck a group of Shias in the town of Balad Ruz, just east of Baquba.
On Saturday, Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani told a meeting of the Kurdistan Democratic Party that Kurds had a right to self- determination in this northern, semi- autonomous region.
Barzani said that he would be presenting the issue to the Party's week-long conference, which opened on Saturday in Irbil to decide future strategy.
Barzani's remarks sparked strong reactions from many Iraqi Arabs, who said the move indicated that the Kurds might be moving towards seceding from Iraq.
Iraqi politics following the 2003 US-led invasion has never been straightforward, but the current taste for brinkmanship among Iraqi politicians will certainly push the country further into the abyss, not least because of uncertainty surrounding the intentions and tactics of the men precipitating the crisis.


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