The long delay in forming a new Iraqi government is a sign of much deeper trouble in the country's political system, writes Salah Hemeid Capping eight months of political wrangling, Iraqi politicians reached a deal to form a new government on 11 November, which it was hoped would put an end to the impasse that has sparked fears of a new round of civil war in the country. Under the power-sharing pact, the Iraqi parliament chose Sunni politician Osama Al-Nujaifi as speaker and re-elected Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani as president. Shia prime minister Nuri Al-Maliki was to keep his job after he skillfully outmanoeuvred his rivals. However, since then hopes of forming a new government have been dampened, with Talabani delaying the appointment of Al-Maliki for fear of triggering a renewed crisis. Talabani had been expected to name Al-Maliki as the country's next prime minister last Sunday. Iraqi officials said the delay in the announcement was meant to give the still incumbent prime minister more time to negotiate ministerial posts. Under the Iraqi constitution, Talabani has 15 days to appoint a prime minister following his selection by lawmakers. Once named, the prime minister has 30 days to form a government. Talabani is almost certain eventually to appoint Al-Maliki as the country's next prime minister, but the question is whether the latter will be able to form a stable government that can carry out the mountainous task of national renewal, including restoring stability and rebuilding the devastated country. Talabani's delay in announcing Al-Maliki's appointment may indicate power struggles among competing groups and leaders. In order for the new prime minister to succeed in his task of forming a strong and stable government, he will need to address some basic problems, the most important of which is how to implement the power-sharing agreement with his partners. Al-Maliki will need to distribute posts in cabinet to satisfy those who backed him in his efforts to keep his job and to provide the basis of his support in parliament. All the country's political and ethnic parties will need to be represented in the new government and to have their voices heard. A second consideration that will have a major impact on whether members of the new government can work together effectively is the need to establish common denominators on key policy issues. Thus far, the country's Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc has made it clear that it will only join the new government on the understanding that its ministers will be real partners in the power-sharing cabinet and in other key institutions, such as the army and police. Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi said on Monday that the bloc would participate in the new government only if that "participation is active and effective". "We will not be false witnesses. We will not join the government unless we agree on decision-making," he told the Al-Arabia television network. Iraqiya is pressing hard to make sure that a new statutory body is set up that will make major policy decisions and oversee security matters before it agrees to join the new cabinet. This Higher Strategic Policy-Making Council is seen by Iraq's Sunni Arabs as a guarantee against any abuse of power by Kurds and Shias in the government. Although Al-Maliki has agreed to set up the council as part of the agreement for his leading the next government, he and other Shia leaders have indicated that changing the chain of command by establishing such a body will require constitutional changes that they are unlikely to accept. Instead, they have argued that the new body should be an essentially advisory panel with no independent authority. However, in Iraqiya's eyes were this to be the case the new council would be powerless, and Al-Maliki would have reneged on the agreement and insulted the country's Sunnis. Iraqiya won the largest number of seats in Iraq's March 2010 parliamentary elections, most of them in Sunni areas, and its support is seen as vital in preventing any resurgence of sectarian violence. Al-Maliki also has to satisfy the followers of radical Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, who joined the prime minister's National Alliance after being promised key seats in the next government and the release of prisoners from detention. If Al-Maliki now retracts on this deal, then hardline Sadrists, who have 40 seats in parliament, could withdraw their support and reassume their disruptive role in Iraqi politics. Al-Maliki also needs the support of the country's Kurds, who had given him enough seats to have a comfortable majority. However, the Kurds also have a long list of demands, including the formal attachment of the oil-rich province of Kirkuk to Kurdistan, as they have long demanded. The Kurds have already played the role of king makers in helping to resolve the current crisis, and Al-Maliki's need of their support is clear. The involvement of certain neighbouring countries in reaching a deal has also been evident. Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria have been working to ensure that groups close to them are part of the new Iraqi government, and they will continue to work to ensure that their interests are maintained. All these will be critical issues not only for the future of Al-Maliki's government and its ability to make decisions, but also for overall stability in Iraq. Al-Maliki's previous government was rendered largely ineffective by internal divisions, lack of coherence and foreign interference. Given the continuing in-fighting and the government's inability to forge a common policy on neighbouring influences in the country, it looks as if Al-Maliki's next government will suffer from similar problems. Meanwhile, as Iraqis wait for a new government to be formed, violence has been spreading more death and destruction nationwide. A spate of attacks targeted several towns this week, including assaults on officials, journalists, lawmakers and US troops. On Monday, two Iraqi Christian brothers were gunned down inside their vehicle workshop in Mosul just one day after three new members of parliament escaped an assassination attempt in the restive northern province. Also on Sunday, an Iraqi local television presenter was killed by gunmen in Mosul. Further south, an American soldier was killed in Tikrit by insurgent gunfire. This background of violence, together with continuing disagreement over the composition of the next Iraqi government, make it unlikely that the country's politicians will be able to forge a government that can guide the war-torn nation through the crucial coming years.
