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In perpetual limbo
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 12 - 2010

With a fragile cabinet emerging in Iraq, it is too early to tell if the government is working, writes Salah Hemeid
Ending more than nine months of political infighting, following an inclusive election, Iraqi lawmakers endorsed Tuesday a new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister-designate Nuri Al-Maliki.
The legislators approved 70 per cent of the 42-member cabinet, leaving the unfilled posts in the care of acting ministers who will be replaced at an unspecified later date.
Iraq has been in a state of political paralysis since the 7 March election, with wrangling between factions highlighting ethnic and sectarian divisions seven and a half years after the US-led invasion that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein.
The indecisive national elections have meant that Iraq's rival ethnic groups and their politicians, particularly Shia Al-Maliki and Sunni-backed former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, are unable to forge a compromise for a government.
On 11 November, they finally reached a power-sharing agreement to form a new government that would represent all ethnic and political groups. Parliament speaker Osama Al-Nujaifi, a Sunni Arab, was selected, and Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, was chosen for a second term as president while Al-Maliki was named prime minister.
The formation of the government comes after the parliament lifted a ban on three Sunni politicians who were barred from participating in Iraqi elections because of links to Saddam's Baath Party. The lifting of the ban was a top requirement made by Al-Maliki's rival bloc, Sunni-sponsored Al-Iraqiya List, led by Allawi.
The partial cabinet included three deputy prime ministers and 29 other cabinet ministers. Thirteen other ministers are to be named later because the political leaders could not agree on appropriate candidates.
The leaders of the fractious coalition government should also agree on who should hold key posts in security departments and name three vice-presidents. Portfolios of the ministers of defence and interior have been left vacant because the parties could not find compromise candidates.
In a speech to the parliament, Al-Maliki acknowledged that it was a very difficult task to form a government in a country like Iraq. "The hardest thing in the world is to form a partnership government where there are multiple sects, nationalities, ethnicities, religions, blocs and parties," he said.
Yet, that could be prove to be easier than the daunting challenges which the Iraqi leaders are expected to face in governing a country beset by sectarian division, rampant violence, a wrecked economy and failing public.
In the coming few days one of the key tasks awaiting lawmakers is to pass a law to form the High Policy-making Council which would be entrusted with the task of overseeing the government's performance.
The Iraqiya List, which won more seats than any other bloc in the parliamentary election, has demanded that the law governing this council must give it powers over major government decisions.
Allawi said he would accept a job as the head of the council that was offered as part of a power-sharing deal only if it has powers over major government decisions.
Iraqi Sunni Arabs have pushed for the council to have real powers in order to end what they feel as marginalisation by Shias and Kurds who have tight control over the government. Failing to strike a balance that would keep the two groups checked would stall the process and upset the relative calm that has followed the announcement of the government deal.
Kurds, on the other hand, have insisted that Al-Maliki should comply with a set of demands that they submitted in exchange for the decisive support they gave to Al-Maliki's bid for a second term.
The Kurdish Alliance, which has 57 seats in the 325-member parliament, demanded several measures that would give it significant autonomy within Iraq's oil sector.
Among their demands is the passage of a specific revenue-sharing law sometime in the 2011 financial year and an oil law that will allow Kurds to sell oil directly from fields in their areas to foreign oil companies, in defiance of Baghdad.
The demands also include clearly defined boundaries of the Kurdish territory, including the fate of Kirkuk which is believed to have some of the world's richest oilfields.
Earlier this month Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani told a meeting of the Kurdistan Democratic Party that Kurds had a right to self- determination in this northern, semi- autonomous region.
Although Barzani later clarified that the right to self-determination does not imply a desire for secession, his statement triggered a strong reaction from many Iraqi Arabs, who said the move indicated that the Kurds might be moving towards seceding from Iraq.
Another challenge that Al-Maliki will face is that he should keep his Shia allies satisfied, especially the followers of the radical cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, because with 40 seats in the parliament they hold the majority that is crucial to keeping him in power.
The group has made it clear that it wants a reward in return: a bigger role in Iraq's new government and a greater say in security matters. On Wednesday the Sadrist lawmakers said they had been shortchanged after backing Al-Maliki. If they feel they are marginalised they might create serious troubles for Al-Maliki's government.
The group has already gotten bolder on the ground and its feared militia which was crushed by Al-Maliki two years ago has returned to the streets in Shia neighbourhoods.
There have been widespread reports that the Sadrists have launched "a morality campaign" in many Iraqi cities closing down social clubs, bars and alcohol shops and intimidating people who are not following their version of Islamic restrictions.
In one incident they entered a lingerie store in the movement's Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City and brusquely told its owner to take bras and underwear out of his display window.
At the parliament session to endorse the government, members of the opposition Kurdish Goran (change) party pulled out, a reminder that the partnership government could still erode in a storm of acrimony.
Female members of the parliament said they had been marginalised, offered only a token job as a minister of state without portfolios though they have 82 seats in the new assembly.
At any rate, those hoping for a definitive answer on whether Iraq's new government stands a reasonable chance of success are going to have to wait a bit longer.
As the mess of the government formation has showed, Iraqi politicians are in for a long bumpy ride. The newly formed government had to deal with multiple security, political, social and economic problems.
Given Iraq's military shortcomings, especially in combat skills, intelligence coordination and logistics, Iraqi security forces might not be able to impose law and order in the country.
Electricity is still in short supply, medicines are available mainly through the black market, and there are long lines for fuel in a country that has the third largest oil reserves in the world.
One of the biggest problems is corruption, which is robust even by world standards. Iraq is ranked fifth from the bottom of Transparency International's corruption list of 180 nations.
According to US and Iraqi officials, bribery and outright theft are flourishing in virtually every Iraqi ministry, and some of those ill- gotten gains are being used by rival politicians in building strong power basis in order to perpetuate their rule of the country.
Despite the flurry of the government formation that might have ended the political stalemate, peace and stability are still a rarity in the troubled nation.
It is expected to remain so as long as it lacks decent institutions and its politics continues to be polarised among and within ethnicities and beholden to the sectarian sway of powerful militias.


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