Inching towards the abyss?

Cairo has been warning that a ceasefire that fails to deal with the substantive issues of Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands is doomed. Developments, as Tarek Atia and Nevine Khalil report, seem to prove it right
Despite the re-activation of the US role in brokering peace in the region, Israel has continued to escalate its aggression against its Arab neighbours. For its part, Egypt is consulting key players in the region, as well as Washington, in an effort to stem nine months of bloodshed in the occupied territories.
On Monday, President Hosni Mubarak met Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah in separate talks to discuss the deteriorating situation in the region and find ways to move away from the abyss of all-out violence. Mubarak and Abdullah held a second meeting on Tuesday.
On the eve of Mubarak's meetings with the Arab leaders in Alexandria, Israel escalated its aggression by bombing a Syrian radar post in Lebanon, injuring three Syrian soldiers and one Lebanese. Later on Sunday, Israeli jet fighters flew over Beirut, breaking the sound barrier, contrary to a pledge not to fly over major Lebanese cities. Soon after the attack, Mubarak spoke to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to denounce the aggression and re-assure Damascus of Egypt's support for both Syria and Lebanon.
A high-level source at the presidency also strongly condemned the attack, describing it as an "unjustified provocation which augurs an escalation of tension in the region." The source added that the attack caused "the vicious cycle of violence to continue at a time when international efforts seek a revival of peace talks on all tracks."
The source called on the Israeli government to "halt these dangerous actions and commit itself to the bases of the peace process," namely withdrawal from occupied Lebanese and Syrian territories. Cairo also counselled all parties to exercise "self-restraint and return to serious negotiations in order to reach a just and comprehensive peace."
The inter-Arab consultations came on the heels of US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the region last week to consolidate the fragile US-brokered cease-fire between the Palestinians and Israelis. But the truce mediated by CIA director George Tenet is on the verge of collapse because the daily confrontations continue between the two sides.
In Alexandria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia agreed that peace was unattainable without Palestinian sovereignty over East Jerusalem, a guaranteed right of return for Palestinian refugees, and the creation of a Palestinian state. The two Arab heavyweights also insisted on the full implementation of the recommendations of the Mitchell report -- both security and political provisions -- which maps out the way for a cease-fire and a return to the negotiating table.
The Saudi Crown Prince arrived in Egypt after meeting French officials and Powell in Paris last Friday. Abdullah had told Powell that Israel could not expect the Palestinians to guarantee security in areas under Israel's control.
"The perception now is that the Israelis have turned their back on peace," Abdullah told Powell. He added that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was "pushing the region to a precipice."
While in Alexandria, Abdullah also met Arafat, who frequently visits Egypt to consult Mubarak on the next peace moves.
Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher emphasised the need to keep the cease-fire test period as short as possible, complementing it with simultaneous political measures which represent a full implementation of the Mitchell plan.
Speaking to reporters on Saturday evening, Maher said: "Egypt has consistently stated that extending the time-frame of the cease-fire is dangerous because it allows factions who do not want it to hold to complicate matters."
Maher spoke specifically about "Israeli settlers who continue to undertake destructive actions against the Palestinian people."
Maher added: "Mitchell is clear. Israel should start taking action. It has not taken action."
Referring to the uproar in Israel caused by statements -- later retracted -- by the Israeli defence minister that several makeshift settlements would be removed, Maher said: "The settlements he was talking about aren't even buildings. If they're making a big deal over a simple thing like this, it introduces serious doubts as to their ability to move things in the right direction in general."
Sunday's Israeli strike on the Syrian radar station was an "action which did not go with a desire to move towards" a comprehensive peace, he said. It was an "unjustifiable escalation of the conflict at a time when there are negotiations and discussions" going on to calm the situation.
In Gaza and the West Bank, a fundamental problem was who would determine whether the cease-fire was holding. According to Maher: "If they [the Israelis] think they should be the ones to determine [issues of] implementation and timing, that is not acceptable, and can never be accepted by Egypt, Palestine or even the US."
It was only logical then, in Maher's view, that there was a need for observers. "Who these observers are, and from which country, is not the problem. The issue is that there needs to be oversight of the situation, so it can be proven," he said.
The issue of international observers has consistently been lobbied by Egypt and the Palestinians. In a telephone call to US Secretary of State Colin Powell following Mubarak's meeting with Arafat on Monday, Maher affirmed the need for observers on the ground to "prevent further violations and determine who is committing these violations."
Arafat himself, speaking at the Arab League on Tuesday, said: "Israel is killing our sons and is looking for a military solution, rather than a political one." Arafat indicated that there was no cease-fire from the Israeli side, while Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa wondered whether Israel's agreement to go along with the Tenet proposal and the Mitchell plan were just "attempts to gain time and escape from political solutions." Moussa warned that the situation was still explosive, and could return to zero point.
Regarding the cease-fire, Nabil Shaath, Palestinian Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, who met Maher on Saturday, raised similar questions. "Can the US guarantee complete quiet -- zero violence -- in Washington DC for 24 hours? It is impossible. Can it guarantee the same thing in Canada, where it has no sovereignty? The idea that we will be judged on every violent incident that takes place both on Palestinian land and on Israeli land is impossible; its only goal is to justify Sharon's desire to prolong the no-peace, no- war situation, so that he can say that he is the only one who decides whether the cease-fire has been observed for the right period of time. This is unacceptable, and it's not what we agreed to with Powell."
Shaath explained, however, that Powell was somewhat vague on this point. "It will be up to both parties to decide," he said, but added: "When both parties are given that right, Israel has been given the right to veto."
Maher, in his telephone conversation with Powell, argued that the situation involved a cease-fire that was being consistently broken by the Israeli side. And yet Israel, he said, considered itself the referee with the right to decide when to take the next step, even though, he said: "We know that the US refuses the principle of giving any one party the right to veto.".
Shaath felt the positive aspect of Powell's visit was the Secretary of State's "assertion -- while in the region -- that there was progress on the cease-fire, which is something that the Israelis did not want to admit at all."
Still, with the deadline for a cooling- off period being today [Thursday], Shaath said he could not say that he was optimistic.
Meanwhile, an Egyptian diplomatic mission travelled to Paris on Monday for talks with French officials on the latest developments in the region, and to provide them with an Arab perspective ahead of Sharon's visit to Paris on Thursday and Friday. According to Egyptian ambassador to France Ali Maher, the team's efforts will focus on making clear Sharon's direct responsibility for the deterioration of the situation.
Egypt and other Arab states welcome a greater European role in peace-making in the region. Europe itself is considering ways of enhancing that role.
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