Waiting on Washington

Despite cautious moves towards stemming violence in the occupied territories, Cairo's view on the peace process is palpably bleak. Tarek Atia, in Cairo, and Hoda Tawfik, in Washington sound out the outlook on the US administration's role
Egypt is not harbouring any false hopes on a break in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at the present time. In Cairo's view, the gap formed by the United States' disengagement from actively bringing the two sides together is at the crux of the issue. And, although President Hosni Mubarak's trip to the United States last week has been seen as successful in its attempts to convince the US administration of the importance of adopting a more active role, the US, for now, is leaving the gap open.
It's understandable that the US would want to take a step back and observe for a while, suggests one diplomat, who added that the pause should not take long. After watching its predecessor dedicate eight years of energy and resources and end up nowhere closer to peace, the new administration is being particularly cautious on this issue.
In terms of damage control, Mubarak's trip to the US was successful -- coming, as it did, so soon after the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's visit. In Washington, the diplomatic source remarked, Sharon found an audience of "willing suspects", with the kind of short attention span warmly receptive to his uncomplicated "stop the violence" message. But for Yasser Arafat, Cairo knows, stopping the Intifada is not going to be easy. The Palestinian president needs something solid from the Israelis to even begin to try. What he does not need is more of what Foreign Minister Amr Moussa described as the "perplexing Israeli policy of doing something provocative and expecting the Palestinians not to respond."
In fact, the Bush administration's initially stern message that above all else, the Palestinians must "stop the violence", may have been interpreted by Sharon as a green light to let loose his arsenal of assassinations, daily helicopter gunship attacks, home bulldozing, and rush to increase settlements.
In the wake of Mubarak's visit, diplomats said, Washington chose to clarify matters a bit with Sharon. Pointed criticism from the Bush administration of new settlements and the attack last week on a Palestinian convoy returning from security negotiations at the US Ambassador's residence in Tel Aviv prompted an admission of "regret" from Sharon -- but no apology. Nonetheless, noted the diplomat, the reproach was "a little bit better" suited to the honest-broker role the US is expected to play.
"We remain fully engaged with all parties, and our agreement to host the [Palestinian-Israeli] security meeting is part of that engagement," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said last week. The reported change in tone from the US side falls in line with Egypt's urging that a political dialogue is essential to restoring calm and resuming final status talks. US administration officials told Al-Ahram Weekly, in Washington, that in his first in-depth discussion with President Mubarak regarding the dangerous situation in the Middle East, Bush was keen to address Arab concerns.
A decision to re-engage the US in the halted peace process will undoubtedly draw the ire of the powerful pro-Israeli lobby, which this week helped push through a letter backed by nearly 300 members of Congress demanding that Bush cut off all talks with the Palestinian Authority. But with fighting still heavy in the occupied territories, Moussa's reiteration that "the Palestinians cannot be blamed for the violence, which is an expected result [of Israeli provocation]," may take on a new meaning.
So long as Sharon is goaded by Israeli Internal Security Minister Uzi Landau to hit Palestinian targets every day, hour after hour, diplomatic sources are convinced that "there's going to be more violence." It has become clear that rocks are not something Sharon seems bothered by, and that the Palestinians now feel they have no recourse but to pursue a strategy similar to that of Lebanon's Hizbullah, which is credited with ousting the Israeli occupation in South Lebanon through years of a war of attrition. But a prolonging, or escalation, of the cycle of hits and reprisals would mean the Palestinians will pay a heavy price.
Meanwhile, as part of Egypt's efforts to improve the situation on the ground, Foreign Minister Moussa held talks with Juan Somavia, director-general of the International Labour Organisation, just as Israel was beginning a mild relaxation of border closures. For the most part, Egypt is working on the premise that the damage wrought over the past few months has left both sides inclined towards finding a way out of the increased confrontation. While Cairo is convinced that bringing everyone back to the negotiating table will require active US support, it is still unclear what recent American moves signal. The US's involvement in the security talks, as well as the rebuke of the Israeli leadership over settlements could indicate a gradual shift in US policy, or simply a gut reaction by the Bush administration to Egyptian concerns.
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