Beirut will do everything in its power to prevent a possible Israeli expulsion of Palestinians to Lebanon. Mohalhel Fakih reports Lebanese authorities are concerned that Israel might try to exploit the expected US attack on Iraq to carry out a "transfer" of Palestinians to southern Lebanon. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's allies in Lebanon and UN officials have downplayed the prospects of such an action, but well-informed sources in Beirut believe the threat is all too real. According to an informed diplomatic source who spoke to Al- Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, Lebanon was warned about a possible transfer by "a non-Arab party. It advised Beirut to pay very close attention to the border." The source said Lebanon was tipped off that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon plans to "transfer" Palestinians after he forms a new government and as soon as the US attacks Iraq. Israel had previously expelled hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into Lebanon in the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars. Their presence has been blamed here for the country's bloody 1975-1990 civil war, and continues to be a factor threatening Lebanon's fragile sectarian balance. Discussion of transfer also brings to mind Israel's 1992 attempt to expel 415 Palestinian activists to its southern territory. Lebanon stuck to its guns then and the men were stranded along the border for a year, until they were repatriated. "Israel could carry out a dangerous aggression by expelling Palestinians to Lebanon in tandem with a US attack on Iraq. The possibility exists, but it cannot be confirmed," Sultan Abu-Aynan, President Arafat's representative in Lebanon told the Weekly from his base at the Rashidiyeh refugee camp, in the country's south. Abu-Aynan expressed doubt that Prime Minister Sharon would be able to carry out such an aggression, arguing that any expulsion could jeopardise American plans in Iraq. "Israel and the US cannot slap Arabs in the face twice at the same time," he said. Arafat's representative suggested that Sharon may, however, content himself with hitting a number of Lebanese targets. Abu-Aynan said he had received "accurate information" about an Israeli plan to attack some targets in southern Lebanon under the pretext of "preventing national and resistance groups" operating in the region from striking at Israel. The diplomatic source in Beirut said Lebanon is watching "with uncertainty" an Israeli army buildup along its frontier. Israel's Channel Two television described it as the largest in decades. United Nations peace-keepers monitoring a withdrawal line that was demarcated by the international body following Israel's May 2000 pullout from southern Lebanon are sceptical. "There is nothing unusual in our area of observation," Timur Goksel, spokesman for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, told the Weekly. But the veteran UN official was careful to only refer to the region that UNIFIL patrols, and not the troubled Shebaa Farms to the east, which emerged as the new front following Israel's withdrawal. The disputed area, which remains under Israeli occupation, has witnessed sporadic fighting between Hizbullah and Israel. It remains a flashpoint, and could well be the scene of cross-border hostilities. Goksel said his troops have noted activities by the Lebanese army along the border, including the construction of new barriers. However, he dismissed the possibility of an expulsion of Palestinians, although Goksel confirmed that Lebanon had "unofficially shared its concerns" with UNIFIL. "There are no indications that the Palestinians will be expelled to Lebanon," the UNIFIL spokesman declared. The UN peace-keeping spokesman served in the region during a series of Israeli invasions and he admits that in the event Washington strikes Baghdad, the situation could turn murky. "Of course in this part of the world you always worry. Sometimes there are local dynamics that play. But we still see the parties in this part of the world are not planning an escalation," Goksel said. Israel's ambassador to Jordan recently denied transfer plans. "I can't imagine any Israeli government ordering the transfer of population," Ambassador David Dadonn told Reuters. But he admitted that several Israeli politicians, "not those in power", had pondered the notion. In any case, the official Lebanese view is that any transfer would have extremely dire consequences for the region. "A transfer [of Palestinian refugees into Lebanon] amounts to a declaration of war," Interior Minister Elias Murr said on a tour of the border region, where a 1,000-strong joint Lebanese army and security force has implemented extensive defensive measures, including sealing off all possible entry points on the volatile border. But Lebanon is not taking risks. Its troops along the border remain on full alert. "The force is capable of preventing any transfer and will do it at any price," Interior Minister Murr said.
