The confrontation between Lebanon's Syrian-backed government and the opposition is set to intensify further, reports Mohalhel Faqih from Beirut The Lebanese political scene is looking at a stormy winter ahead. Pro-Syrian government members and opponents of Syria's role are contemplating parliamentary elections for May. The ballot is supposed to succeed a crucial report by the United Nations on Syrian compliance with a Security Council call for withdrawal of troops from Lebanon and an end to Damascus involvement in Lebanese politics. The opposition is pinning its hopes on the legislative vote. Karami's government mainly consists of pro-Syrian allies as well as two women, a first for Lebanon. However, "there is a political crisis and we should admit that there is a major political divide," Karami said after announcing his 30-member government. He already faces criticism from some pro-Syrian parties such as Hizbullah as well as the opposition. Among the new government's chief tasks is drafting an electoral law. "The elections are significant. They will amount to an attempt to preserve the current status quo," political observer and writer Fares Khashan told Al-Ahram Weekly. Beirut newspapers have been rife with reports that the ballot may be rescheduled to pre- empt the UN report. "It would cement the existing majority" of loyalists, Khashan explained. Days after Karami was named prime minister, Druze and Progressive Socialist Party chief, Walid Jumblatt, warned the state against resorting to "more assassinations". He earlier blamed the authorities for a failed assassination attempt against his ally and former minister Marwan Hamadeh who survived a car bomb attack that killed his body guard. Hamadeh and two other followers of Jumblatt had resigned in protest against the amendment of Lebanon's constitution which allowed President Emile Lahoud to stay in office for three more years. Karami formed the new government after his predecessor, Rafiq Al-Hariri, resigned in a power struggle with his political archenemy, Lahoud. Karami supports the extension of Lahoud's presidential mandate and is seen as closer to Syria. "Lebanon and Syria are under strong foreign pressure that aims at breaking their tight links," Karami said. He strongly condemned UN Security Council Resolution 1559 which calls for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Lebanon and Hizbullah disarmament. The "international positions... resulted from the fact that Syria is opposed to Israel, supports the Palestinian people and the resistance." Denying that the Security Council sought to protect Lebanese sovereignty and independence Karami declared that "we offer a hand [of cooperation] to everyone." But the opposition was not impressed. It rejected invitations to join the government and maintained its rejection of Lahoud's mandate, drawing a diatribe from one of Syria's most strident supporters. "Jumblatt is now part of the regional game... the opposition has reached half the way to meet the US and French position," Minister Kanso told a news conference. He put Syria's opponents on notice that their position is "very dangerous". Washington has been irritated with the extension of Lahoud's mandate and the appointment of Karami. In a media interview US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, even dubbed Karami's government as "made in Damascus". With criticism from major Lebanese news outlets also greeting the new government, Information Minister Elie Ferzlie told reporters after the first cabinet meeting that "a media campaign was launched internally and from outside" against the new government. He rejected Armitage's "lessons" on sovereignty and independence and all other external criticism as "interference" in Lebanese internal affairs, forcing the Lebanese opposition to quickly deny any external involvement in their policy making. Yet criticism also comes from pro-Syrian parties. Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah vowed to remain pragmatic and warned the government that while his party will praise hard work it will also criticise any faulty policies. Nasrallah urged the government to eliminate endemic corruption and public waste. In a speech at a Ramadan iftar feast, Nasrallah cautioned against sidelining any political heavyweights. "No one can think of slashing anyone," he said. The leader of Hizbullah, the group that is credited with driving Israeli troops out of south Lebanon in 2000, but is branded a "terrorist" organisation in the US, tried in vein to mediate between Syria and the increasingly bold Jumblatt. Jumblatt still does not accept Lahoud's regime as legitimate. He claims Lebanon is heading towards a military rule and accuses Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services of heavy-handed involvement in Lebanese politics. With such statements come formidable risks with the local Baath Party leader accusing the opposition as seeking "to join American and Israeli efforts by attacking Syria and its national role in Lebanon". Jumblatt and the Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering believe the authorities invited them to join a new government for the sole purpose of weathering the international storm that followed the extension of Lahoud's term, and say there is no intention to redress relations with Damascus. The opposition argues that existing treaties with Syria are unbalanced in favour of the Syrians. They also demand the implementation of the 1989 Taif Accord which stipulated a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. "Any premature withdrawal of Syrian forces in the absence [of] a Lebanese-Lebanese and Syrian-Lebanese accord will result in a catastrophe for Lebanon," Deputy Prime Minister Issam Fares told a radio interview. But UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan disputed that position in a recent report to the Security Council by stating that stability in the country and the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers paved the way for a Syrian pullout. The opposition agrees. "We are sure that there will be no reproduction of an internal and bloody war in Lebanon. The Lebanese are capable of handling their affairs after the withdrawal of Syrian forces. The Lebanese have learned the lessons of war," MP Fares Saed, of Qornet Shehwan, said. His position does not echo the government's stance. "When we feel that the Syrian forces are no longer needed we will be the first to demand their pullout," the new prime minister said. He maintained the international pressure emanating from Resolution 1559 "targets national unity and civil peace" and intended to "draw us into what is happening in Palestine and Iraq. But we will not allow that." Opposition factions held a preliminary meeting last week to draft a joint national programme. They said the "dangerous situation" in Lebanon had been exacerbated by the extension of Lahoud's mandate, the formation of the government and steps to "reproduce an obedient parliament." Although in its policy statement, due this week, the government is expected to pledge a fair electoral law. Gerrymandering and an anticipated electoral law ahead of legislative elections are an indication of the state's plans. The opposition, especially anti-Syrian Christian parties, traditionally favour small voting districts where their popularity could be spared what Lebanese term the "election bulldozer". This is a reference to alliances of heavyweights that are capable of drowning opposition votes in order to generate a pro-Syrian legislature. However, the political analyst Khashan argues that an unconfirmed proposal to institute two different voting mechanisms, one to elect the 128-member Parliament through various constituencies and another to vote in 30 additional legislators in the first-ever single country-wide electoral district, will offset any opposition gains. Such a move, Khashan told the Weekly, will yield 30 additional pro-government seats. The opposition, backed by the Maronite Church, is demanding international observers monitor the voting process.
