Cairo's mediation role in the region is getting more intensive by the day, reports Dina Ezzat During his talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday with Crown Prince Abdullah, President Hosni Mubarak secured substantial support from Riyadh for an ambitious diplomatic plan that Cairo is working on to mediate national dialogue in both Iraq and Palestine. Mubarak also received a Saudi promise to show flexibility on a rift between Riyadh and Tripoli, another issue that Cairo is mediating in. The three issues, Egyptian diplomats say, are crucial items for Egyptian diplomacy during the months ahead. With the Palestinian presidential elections next week, Cairo believes the time has come to fully activate and "hopefully broker" a dialogue between inter-Palestinian factions. Many Cairo diplomats say it is "almost certain" that the Palestinian presidential candidate it favours most, Mahmoud Abbas, will receive the majority of Palestinian votes. However, as far as Cairo is concerned, an electoral victory for Abbas would do little to serve the purpose of internal Palestinian stability and those of possible Palestinian-Israeli talks, if the victory at the polls is not supported by an equally important "if not more crucial" agreement between Abbas and the leaders of the two major Palestinian resistance movements, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, over the way ahead in managing both internal Palestinian affairs and Palestinian-Israeli talks. Moreover, Cairo is convinced that Abbas needs to have close rapport with all political powers on the Palestinian scene. "This is essential for Abu Mazen (Abbas) to succeed. If he fails to establish a dialogue or reach agreements with all political factions on the Palestinian scene, he will have a very tough time on the internal front. Moreover, any agreement he might reach with Israel could be subject to serious questioning," one Egyptian diplomat said. So far, Egyptian attempts to mediate an all-inclusive Palestinian dialogue have not been particularly successful. Egypt has been in direct and extensive communication with the leaders of all the concerned groups, particularly Hamas and Islamic Jihad who have sent several representatives for talks with Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman over the past 12 weeks. However, what Egypt has yet to deliver on is to persuade these factions to agree on a common agenda, to start a dialogue and to get them to sit at a negotiating table that could deliver a deal. Egyptian sources involved in arranging a dialogue admit to serious difficulties, especially during the past few weeks. Some even say that it was easier to get the factions talking under former Palestinian President Yasser Arafat who was never as vocal about his rejection of armed resistance as Abu Mazen. However, Egyptian sources add, there is considerable hope that with the election of Abu Mazen as the new Palestinian president, the Palestinian factions, especially Hamas and Islamic Jihad, may come to the conclusion that the time has come for dialogue. While Egypt is the key mediator on this front, Egyptian sources say Cairo is also counting on the support of a few other Arab capitals that are close to the Palestinian political scene. Meanwhile, Cairo is also working closely with Riyadh, Damascus and Amman to arrange for an ambitious Iraqi national reconciliation process. During his participation tomorrow in a ministerial meeting in Amman of Iraq's neighbouring states, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit will study with participating ministers and representatives from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria and Iran an Iraqi request presented to Cairo earlier this week to help encourage Iraqi Sunni political factions to participate in the national elections even if Baghdad is forced to postpone the vote scheduled for 30 January. During his talks with Abul-Gheit and Defence Minister Hussein Tantawi in Cairo earlier this week, Iraqi Defence Minister Hazem Al-Shaalan admitted that his government was facing serious problems in providing the basic security requirements for an election that can attract a decent turnout. Al-Shaalan said his interim government was particularly disturbed over plans made by key Sunni political parties to boycott the elections. But he told his Egyptian interlocutors of his worst fear: of militant groups executing their threat to carry out massive attacks against ballot stations and thus bring about a carnage that could cause international embarrassment to both the Iraqi interim government and US forces in Iraq. Al-Shaalan, sources say, shared intelligence information with Egypt that showed his concerns are legitimate. Shaalan's public statements in Cairo on Monday over the willingness of the Iraqi interim government to postpone the elections for a short period to allow for decent Sunni participation were met with anger from some members of the government who claimed the defence minister was in no position to decide the fate of the elections. Other members of the government fear that it is unwise to insist on the 30 January date when at best they will produce a government with contested legitimacy and in a worst case scenario produce much blood letting. The lack of agreement among members of the Iraqi interim government, not to mention Iraqi political factions including the Sunnis, Shias and Kurds, is one serious problem that Egypt is trying to resolve. Egypt, sources say, believe that it might be wise to consider a delay of a few weeks if that would help produce better security arrangements and wider participation from all political factions. "We are not deciding for the Iraqis. They have to decide for themselves," commented a senior Egyptian official. However, according to the official, during the past weeks Cairo has heard more concerns than assurances over the fate of the Iraqi elections. In Amman tomorrow, Abul-Gheit will discuss the issue and will propose a concerted Arab effort to gauge the reaction of Iraqi political groups during the coming days. If Egypt receives sufficient assurances that the vast majority of Iraqi forces favour a delay in the elections then it might go ahead with proposing an all-Iraqi national reconciliation dialogue under the umbrella of the Iraq Neighbouring States group . "We believe that it is essential for Iraqis to come together and talk to each other. Without direct inter-Iraqi communication then the fears of an Iraqi civil war would only grow and might even materialise," an Egyptian diplomat said. To embark on this project, Cairo obviously needs the go- ahead from Washington. This week, a US State Department spokesman publicly refused Al-Shaalan's proposal to delay the elections. But as some Arab diplomats believe, if Washington receives a significant message from Cairo, Riyadh and perhaps Amman then it might have good reason to accept a few weeks' delay "upon the request of the Iraqi interim government and its neighbouring states". Unlike inter-Palestinian and inter-Iraqi issues that prove particularly challenging for Egyptian mediation -- no matter how skilful -- the Saudi-Libyan file has given Egypt some satisfaction. Last week, Cairo managed to persuade Riyadh and Tripoli to suspend the war of words in the media that started in the wake of the Saudi decision a couple of weeks ago to ask the Libyan ambassador in Riyadh to leave the country in protest against what Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal described as substantial evidence of high-level Libyan involvement in plotting an attempt on the life of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah. This week, Cairo moved a step further when it persuaded Riyadh to consider an Arab investigation into the matter and to suspend all intentions to reduce diplomatic ties with Tripoli until a conclusive opinion is formed. "We really believe that we have so many problems with Iraq and Palestine," a senior Egyptian source said. "These are problems that seem set to deteriorate rather than improve and we cannot afford to get into further regional complications."
