The old alliance comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria might be resurrected, writes Dina Ezzat Developments in Syria was a key issue on the agenda of the lengthy tête-�-tête President Hosni Mubarak had over the weekend with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah. Abdullah arrived in Egypt following a visit to the US during which he met US President George W Bush. He then held subsequent talks with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus. Mubarak, Abdullah and Al-Assad have some serious concerns to share and according to informed diplomatic sources, one problem is an open secret: Washington is considering the possible encouragement of a regime change in Syria. While Cairo, Riyadh and Damascus believe the US will not launch a military attack on Syria any time in the near future, there is consensus that Washington is trying to stir things up inside the Al-Assad regime by encouraging bitter and long-suppressed opposition and outside by inducing instability in Syria's immediate backyard, Lebanon. The Mubarak-Abdullah talks, diplomats say, were an opportunity for both leaders to share "their common assessment of the situation" which perceives the US as being serious in its anti-Syrian plans and Syria in being unable to fully grasp the level of American determination to either contain the Syrian regime or break it. "We have some serious concerns about what the Americans have in mind with regards to Syria," one Egyptian diplomatic source said. "We are not alone in that. We also have our concerns about how Syria is judging the seriousness of the US plans." According to Mubarak's spokesman Suleiman Awad, Syria has been doing much to meet the demands of the international community regarding its influence in Lebanon. Speaking to reporters in Sharm El-Sheikh following the Mubarak-Abdullah summit, Awad argued there was agreement between Cairo and Riyadh -- and indeed other Arab capitals -- that "Syria had abided by the demands of the United Nations [regarding the presence of its troops in Lebanon] and that if there are still demands from the UN concerning the disarmament of militias and other issues then that would be taken up with the concerned parties since this is not the responsibility of Syria." Syrian support for Hizbullah in Lebanon and militant Palestine resistance factions is an issue that Mubarak and Abdullah have been discussing with Al-Assad. According to informed sources, during a telephone conversation that Mubarak had with his Syrian counterpart before Abdullah left Egypt on Friday, the president proposed a three-way meeting where they -- the leaders of the three most influential Arab countries -- could sit together and discuss the issue. The Syrian president, the sources say, has welcomed the opportunity to meet Mubarak and Abdullah but whether such a summit will take place depends on Al-Assad who needs to make a tough decision on how far he can go in reducing his support for Hizbullah and the Palestinian militant resistance factions without angering the national and Islamist opposition in his country. According to one Cairo-based diplomat Syria is aware of the concerns Egypt and Saudi Arabia have but at the same time is aware that it "adopts a different approach towards Washington than Cairo or Riyadh". Egyptian and Syrian diplomats admit that it is the disagreement on the approach towards Washington that has alienated the members of the three-way alliance launched in the early 1990s with President Mubarak, former Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad and King Fahd of Saudi Arabia who is now bed-ridden. However, due to disagreements between Al-Assad the father, and both Mubarak and Fahd over how far Arab capitals could go in accommodating Washington on Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, members of the alliance drifted apart. With the ascension of Bashar to power and the transfer of power to Abdullah as a result of Fahd's declining health, the alliance is almost a thing of the past. "Bashar is more open to the Americans than his father but he is apprehensive. And Abdullah is more willing to accommodate the Americans than Fahd," one Arab diplomat said. However, both Cairo and Riyadh are also having thoughts about what the US has in store for them. The two Arab capitals believe it is not in their interests if the current Syrian regime gets into serious trouble. The Saudis are upset with Damascus over its alleged involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister and Saudi national Rafiq Al-Hariri. Egypt is also upset with Syria over what Cairo sees as deliberate Syrian attempts to tamper with diplomatic Egyptian efforts to produce a long-term Palestinian-Israeli truce. However, both Cairo and Riyadh, diplomats say, have not encouraged US plans regarding Syria. "Others may have done it but not Cairo or Riyadh," one Egyptian diplomat said. Out of an awareness of US plans against Syria and an aggressive US policy towards Egypt and Saudi Arabia, plus the fear that some Arab capitals may be facilitating a regime change in Syria, both Cairo and Riyadh feel obliged to attempt to revive their close association with Damascus. The theory there, diplomats suggest, is that if the three capitals can send Washington a unified message about their commitment to the kind of internal reforms the US wants, but at their own pace and in face-saving fashion, then they could all be spared American ire. But whether this scheme will work depends on how far Syria is prepared to go.
