The return of Sunnis to the Iraqi constitution panel may end a deadlock, but will it improve Iraq's prospects for stability, asks Salah Hemeid When Sunni Arab representatives withdrew last week from the committee writing Iraq's new constitution after two colleagues were assassinated, the move threatened to derail the country's path towards full sovereignty. The boycott came after one Sunni member of the panel, a Sunni adviser, and his bodyguard, were gunned down just after leaving a session on the writing of the constitution. "We cannot be a part of this," said Saleh Al-Moutlaq, one of the Sunnis who suspended their membership on the constitutional committee. It was not clear who was behind the assassination but the message behind it was clear -- to scare Sunnis from participating. Al-Moutlaq blamed the government for not providing enough security for them and urged a full international investigation into the killings. The 14 members who pulled out were from the Council on Dialogue, a Sunni Arab group which claims close ties to the insurgency. Like Al-Moutlaq, a former Baathist businessman who prospered under Saddam Hussein, they joined the constitution committee early this month after complaints that the Shia and Kurdish-controlled Transitional National Assembly had appointed 55 members to the panel with only two Sunni Arab members to represent the Sunni Arabs, who are about a fifth of Iraq's population. Until recently the Sunni Arabs have almost unanimously boycotted the political process, insisting instead on backing the insurgency with the hope of forcing the US to pull out of Iraq, allowing them to make a dramatic return to power. But this may be changing. In addition to the Council on Dialogue, more groups are emerging and gaining influence among Sunni Arabs, and many of them have come to the conclusion that it was a mistake to boycott the 31 January elections that brought the Shia- Kurdish alliance to power. The boycott, with the threat of violence by insurgents, severely dampened voter turnout in the Sunni Arab areas. As a result, they received only 17 of 275 seats in the National Assembly, a disastrous share for a community which had controlled wealth and power in Iraq for more than 80 years. Now Sunni Arabs must decide whether to fully join the political process and participate in drafting the constitution or leave the insurgency to speak on their behalf. The Shia-Kurdish coalition that dominates the government -- and the constitution committee -- could easily agree on a proposed constitution by ignoring the will of Sunnis, but they also realise that a constitution without the support of the Sunni minority might fail to be approved in a national referendum. Blocking the new constitution is a recipe for relentless strife and even worse, the possibility of a bloody civil war that would eventually lead to partitioning of the country. How to reverse the dangerous situation is a contentious matter, although there are signs that prudence and national interest may prevail. The Muslim Scholars Association, an influential group of Sunni Arab clerics known for its unwavering support for the insurgency, has indicated that it might not discourage Sunnis from voting in the coming constitutional referendum and national elections, as it did in last January's elections. One of its leaders, Sheik Dhiya Al-Din Abdullah, was quoted on Sunday as saying that the association "doesn't mind if the Sunnis deem that participation in the constitution and the next elections will be good for them and for the country, as long as there exist conditions that will allow their participation to be effective and real." Such a move would appear to reverse the stand of the group, which has always maintained that joining the political process under the US occupation is illegitimate. Although the move is crucial to keeping the political process on track and undermining the raging insurgency, key questions remain, including whether or not the Sunnis will accept some of the thorny proposals which both Shias and Kurds say they want to include in the new constitution, such as a federal system that will give Kurds powerful self- rule, and Islam's role in the new Iraq that would give Sharia, or Islamic jurisprudence, central status as the "primary" source of all legislation. According to some reports, the drafting committee has also agreed that the country's name will become the "Federal Islamic Republic of Iraq", and a supreme constitutional court dominated by religious scholars would have final authority to overturn any legislation contrary to the spirit of Islam. The Sunnis have also expressed strong reservations about proposals in a draft constitution that appears to grant special privileges to Shia religious leaders. On Monday, Iraqis breathed a sigh of relief after Sunni representatives said they are ending the boycott and rejoining the process following a government promise to meet their demands and address their grievances. Yet the negotiations over the constitution are far from over and both sides must now enter the more difficult phase of bargaining and deal-making. A draft is due by 15 August, but 1 August is the deadline for announcing a six-month extension if the committee decides it needs more time. As violence continues in many parts of Iraq, many observers believe that at this stage, Iraqis may need outside help in avoiding the likely further turmoil which would ensue if the document is not ready by the 15 August deadline. On Monday, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa disclosed plans to convene a leadership summit in Egypt in two weeks on Iraq. Moussa, who described the situation in Iraq as "dangerous", did not divulge any details of the summit, but senior Arab diplomats told Al-Ahram Weekly that the leaders are expected to discuss a plan for an Arab-backed pan-Iraq conference in an attempt to convince the Iraqi factions to stop pushing extreme agendas. Such Arab involvement might not be welcomed by the insurgents, who are bent on wrecking the political process and have warned Arab and Muslim nations against ties with Baghdad. Last week, the "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" organisation, led by Jordanian Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, the most feared insurgent faction, abducted top Algerian envoy Ali Belaroussi and his colleague, Azzeddin Belkadi. The kidnappings brought to five the number of key diplomats from Islamic countries targeted in Baghdad in less than three weeks, in an attempt to undermine support for the Iraqi government among Arab and Muslim nations. In any event, a breakthrough will largely depend on splitting the insurgents -- who seek a return to Sunni Arab dominance through a sectarian war leading to the departure of the American forces. A recent spate of lethal suicide bombings indicates that most extremist insurgents, Saddam's loyalists and the Islamic Jihadists, are not ready to compromise. Yet without Sunni inclusion, the insurgency will gain even greater strength and the ethnic and religious divisions in the country will make it nearly impossible for a new government to function.
