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Sunnis in suspense
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 07 - 2005

As Sunni Arabs show signs of joining the political process, suicide bombers step up their bloody campaign in Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid
Even before Iraqis buried victims of Saturday's bombing in Mussayab, three more suicide bombings struck Baghdad leaving dozens of innocent Iraqis dead and injured. The death toll grew to over 170 from attacks this week mostly in Baghdad, as violence in the capital surged.
The bombing, in Mussayab, about 60 kilometres south of the capital, was one of the most deadly suicide attacks since the US invasion. On Saturday night a suicide bomber wrapped in explosives detonated himself next to a gasoline tanker creating a devastating fireball that engulfed a nearby Shia mosque and a crowded open-air market. Some 90 civilians were killed in the attack.
The bombing, the latest in an unrelenting string of suicide bombings that have killed hundreds of Iraqis, occurred while the Iraqi Minister of Interior Bayan Jabar boasted on a television talk show that same evening that the severe measures he had applied against the insurgents had reduced their attacks to nearly zero. It was also a formidable challenge to the US military, who only a month ago claimed that military offensives had sharply undermined the ability of the insurgents to launch attacks and cut the number of suicide bombings in half.
Iraq's security was central to talks held by Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jafaari with top Iranian officials during the first high-level visit by an Iraqi dignitary to Tehran. The visit heralds the restoration of diplomatic ties after decades of political animosity. Iran's outgoing President Mohamed Khatami said the security of Iran and Iraq were closely linked and that Tehran would do everything possible to help restore Iraq's stability.
Accompanied by ten ministers, Al-Jaafari discussed with Iranian officials ways to secure the 1000-kilometre border the two countries share. The two countries, therefore, discussed the possibility of signing a security agreement that would involve establishing a mechanism for intelligence sharing to prevent infiltrations and to assist in stabilising the situation, according to Iraqi officials.
Meanwhile, bombers struck elsewhere, leaving both American and Iraqi military officials unable to figure out how to fight what appears to be a prolific car bomb industry, which they say can be assembled and armed in less than an hour. Since the new government took power in April, suicide bomb attacks have averaged at least one per day. Last week saw 23 car bombs, six of which were driven by suicide bombers, detonated throughout the country.
It was unclear why the insurgents decided to escalate their bloody attacks this week, but many Iraqis had been anticipating a spike in violence tied to Sunday 17 July, the anniversary of the 1968 military coup that ushered Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to power. Most of the insurgents are believed to be Baathists and Saddam loyalists who dream of returning to power. A statement posted on the Baath Party website on the internet stated that Iraqis had waited 600 years for the party to liberate them from foreign occupation (a reference to the 1258 Mongol invasion of Baghdad) and will wait again, this time to be liberated from the American occupation.
The government also used the anniversary to announce that the deposed dictator and three co-defendants will go on trial, perhaps as soon as early September, for their alleged roles in the 1982 massacre of more than 150 people in the town of Al-Dujail. The chief investigative judge of Iraq's special tribunal, Raed Juhi, said the investigation into the Al-Dujail massacre had been completed and that the special tribunal's trial court had been given the case against Saddam; his half-brother and former intelligence chief, Barzan Al-Tikriti; former vice president Taha Yassin Ramadan; and Awad Al-Bander, head of the Baath Revolutionary Tribunal that sent dozens of Al-Dujail residents to arbitrary execution.
Saddam Hussein's trial is highly significant, as many Iraqis believe it will send a strong message to his supporters among the Sunni Arabs that atrocities committed by his regime will not go unpunished. It may also weaken their resolve and pressure them to engage in negotiations.
The surge in bomb attacks followed a leak of a British Defence Ministry memorandum that confirms that London and Washington hope to reduce troop strengths in Iraq next year. According to the memo, British troops could be reduced from 8,500 now to 3,000 by the middle of next year and US troops could be cut from 176,000 to 60,000. Three factors appear to be putting pressure on the two governments to cut the troop numbers -- politics, cost and manpower.
Meanwhile, there has been a shift in tone coming from some Sunni sectors showing a desire to join the political process. On Thursday, hundreds of prominent Sunnis gathered in Baghdad for a unity conference called by Adnan Al-Dulaimi, the head of the Sunni Endowment Department. "We want you to urge your brothers to rush out and sign their names at voter registration centres," Al-Dulaimi told the throng. "We are in a battle that has different fronts, and you are the leaders." Other Sunni dignitaries lamented the poor Sunni turnout in January that left Sunni Arabs with only 17 of 275 seats in the National Assembly. "We blame ourselves because we didn't take part in the last elections," said Sheikh Ibrahim Al-Ni'maa. "Our loss was big, and we are still experiencing its bitter consequences."
The move followed the nomination of 15 Sunnis to a committee that has started drafting Iraq's first post-war constitution after months of boycott and threats from insurgents. Whether or not they represent a broad segment of Sunnis and can work with the committee remains uncertain, yet they were quick to voice their objection to the establishment of a Kurdish federal region in northern Iraq and demand that the new constitution stipulate that Iraq is part of the Arab nation. Whatever the outcome of the discussions on the constitution, the Sunnis, some of who back the insurgency, appear ready to join the political process.
However, as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, it was announced that Sunnis suspend membership on Iraq constitutional drafying committee.
Winning over Sunnis who held power for most of the 20th century is critical to ending the attacks, which are eroding the credibility of the Iraqi government and American public support for the war. The Sunni community remains fractured, raising questions about whether calls to join the political process will succeed. Most insurgents are Sunni, and few Sunnis voted in the 30 January election that created the interim government.
Many fear that an Iraqi civil war between Sunnis and the dominant Shias -- which is exactly what Jordanian terrorist Abu Musaab Al-Zarqawi is trying to spawn -- may be emerging. Halting that trend requires Shia and Sunni leaders to be more open to each other's grievances and would include guarantees for equal rights in a new constitution.


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