As US combat troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq, Al-Qaeda seems to be making a comeback in the country, writes Salah Hemeid In what was being described as a bold show of force, militants from the Al-Qaeda network in Iraq briefly planted the organisation's flag in the heart of Baghdad on Thursday, after killing 16 members of the country's security forces in an attack at a checkpoint. The rocket attack on the checkpoint, which was followed by an arson attack that destroyed the remains, indicated that the group is regaining its foothold in the Iraqi capital as US troops prepare to leave the country by the end of August. The daylight strikes in the Sunni-dominated Al-Adhamiyah neighbourhood of the city demonstrated the dangers Iraq still faces as rival politicians squabble over who should be prime minister more than five months after inconclusive elections. They come amid reports that Al-Qaeda militants are also active in several other cities as the political stalemate continues, driving the war-ravaged nation into a deeper security vacuum. Earlier on Thursday, suicide bombers, roadside bombs and bombs attached to cars killed several policemen and troops and injured many others in the cities of Tikrit, Falluja and Mosul in attacks all believed to be carried out by Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda also claimed responsibility for a bombing last week that targeted the Baghdad offices of the Al-Arabiya television channel killing six people, describing it as a victory against a "corrupt channel". On Monday, Al-Qaeda militants blew up the house of a policeman in Falluja killing him, his wife and four-year-old daughter and wounding three others. Hours later, a roadside bomb targeting a police patrol missed and killed three civilians travelling in a car and wounded eight bystanders in the western part of Baghdad. Last month, the group declared responsibility for a series of attacks nationwide that killed dozens of people, mostly members of the security forces, members of the anti-Al-Qaeda Sunni militias, known as Sahwas, and Shia worshipers. The attacks have shaken an increasingly fragile security situation, making July the deadliest month for Iraqis in two years. New government figures released on Saturday showed that 535 people had been killed in attacks last month, the highest since May 2008 when 563 were killed. Insurgents, and especially Al-Qaeda, are blamed for the rise in the death toll. The attacks underline the fact that the Al-Qaeda network can still strike with lethal force across Iraq, despite claims by both the US forces and the government that violence has receded in recent months. Al-Qaeda has showed a resilience in its terror attacks seven years after the 2003 US-led invasion, despite reports of the deaths or capture of hundreds of its fighters. In June, Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for a deadly assault on the Iraqi Central Bank and two other banks known as being conduits for much of the government's foreign-exchange transactions and dealings with investors. Last week, press reports suggested that Al-Qaeda was turning its attention to the country's hospitals and blood banks, in order to steal supplies to treat injured fighters, indicating that Al-Qaeda has its own paramedics to tend to the wounded. The reports quoted hospital employees as saying that they feared reporting the thefts to the police because they believed that many members of the security forces support Al-Qaeda. Last month, four high-ranking members of Al-Qaeda escaped from a prison that the US military had recently handed over to the Iraqi government. Iraqi officials blamed the American- appointed prison chief, who disappeared after the incident, for the escape. The recent upsurge in Al-Qaeda activities shows that US and Iraqi government efforts to weaken the group have not produced effective results and that it is changing its tactics in order to maintain momentum in preparation for the US troop withdrawal. Following the killing of its two main leaders, Abu Ayoub Al-Masri and Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi in April, the government claimed that Al-Qaeda's ability to launch attacks and recruit volunteers would be reduced. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared the killing as a setback that had left the group "devastated" and "struggling to cope with a double whammy of a leadership vacuum and a money squeeze". However, analysts argue that though Al-Qaeda's scope of operations might have narrowed as a result of the killing of two of its key leaders and the arrest of others, this does not mean that the group has disappeared or its ability to recruit fighters has diminished. American and Iraqi forces have been effective in eliminating individual Al-Qaeda leaders, including founder Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in 2006, but this has not destroyed the movement or reduced its ability to carry out attacks across the country, analysts say. The Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the Iraqi version of Al-Qaeda, might lack the sophistication it had during the extremely violent years of 2006, 2007 and 2008, yet its bombings, assassinations and armed attacks remain daily occurrences in Iraq. Founded in October 2006, the ISI, which oversees many Islamist groups, has its own "ministers" and "governors" on the model of those employed by the Iraqi government. Although much of the group's support initially came from foreign volunteers, there have also been signs that other Sunni insurgent groups have been merging their efforts with fighters aligned with Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda fighters are known specifically to target members of the Iraqi armed forces, members of the Shia-dominated government, and Shia-populated neighbourhoods. Al-Zarqawi, who was killed in an American air raid, sought to provoke a Shia-Sunni civil war in the country, hoping to mobilise Sunnis in a full-scale war against the Shias, whom he considered to be religious heretics. The group's present strategy seems to be designed to take advantage of the current political impasse in order to cause generalised insecurity in Iraq, stepping up its attacks to destabilise the country. Most Sunnis will disagree with that strategy, as they hope they can use the results of the March elections to shift the balance in their favour. The Sunni-supported bloc, Iraqiya, won the majority of seats in the elections, and Sunnis hope that they can now regain control of the country, lost to the Shias after the 2003 US-led invasion. They may be hoping that the current round of Al-Qaeda attacks will force Shia leaders to allow the Sunnis to form a new government in the coming weeks and not to wreck the electoral process. For this reason, many Sunnis have not turned against Al-Qaeda, seeing it as a source of effective support for their political endeavours. Should Sunnis support the government in its crackdown against the group they might also be targeted for particular punishment by Al-Qaeda fighters. Al-Qaeda initially relied on support from disgruntled Sunnis in its terror campaigns, but more recently it is reported to have relied on murder and intimidation. The danger the group poses is most evident in the streets of cities in Sunni provinces such as Al-Anbar, Mosul and Tikrit, and in Sunni-populated neighbourhoods in Baghdad, where Sunnis gained most seats in the new parliament. It is in these areas that the group has stepped up its attacks against the Sahwas and Sunnis willing to support political efforts to form a Sunni-led government. While the Al-Qaeda fighters are believed to be mostly Iraqi Sunnis, the group's funding mostly coming from its operations, the group still receives Arab fighters and money from outside Iraq. Iraq's neighbours have stakes in the country's on-going turmoil, and it is widely believed that some of them might be using the insurgency, including the terror attacks carried out by Al-Qaeda, in order to meddle in Iraq's internal affairs. As long as Iraq remains without a stable political system and a degree of security, Al-Qaeda will not be defeated and its fighters will continue to play havoc in the country.
