The fallout from the Gaza redeployment will shape Israel's domestic politics for the foreseeable future, writes Samir Ghattas* In a symbolic visit Sharon plans to inspect the remains of Jewish settlements in Gaza evacuated in a police and army operation that began on 17 August. Sharon's visit may well be the last for a man who has marched with his troops into the Gaza strip at least four times before. The first was in 1953, when Sharon was still a young officer, a member of a unit that killed 19 Palestinians in Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza. Then in 1955 Sharon's contingent killed 38 Egyptian servicemen in Khan Younis, in retaliation for attacks launched by Palestinian fighters. The third was in 1970, when Sharon led a force that raided Gaza in an attempt to end Palestinian resistance operations and the fourth in 1973 when, now a general, he led his troops through Rafah and on to the Suez Canal. This was Sharon's last encounter with Gaza as a professional soldier, though not as a politician. Sharon was the godfather of settlement activity. Under his aegis one-third of the over-populated Gaza strip was annexed to Israeli settlements. Only three years ago Sharon said the Netzarim settlement was as crucial to Israel as Tel Aviv. The U- turn came at the Herzliya Conference on 18 December 2003, when Sharon announced his plan for unilateral disengagement from Gaza that was initially viewed as a gimmick designed to undermine the Geneva Declaration. As time passed Sharon seemed resolved to do what he had said. He was not just buying time but determined to see his plan through, even against stiff domestic opposition. Sharon promised that by the end of 2005 there would be no Jewish residents in Gaza. Marwan Barghouti, speaking from prison in Israel, and Khalil Mashaal, speaking from his office in Damascus, both hailed Israel's withdrawal from Gaza as the beginning of the end to the Zionist project and the state of Israel. George Bush and President Hosni Mubarak, however, pointed out that the withdrawal was in Israel's national interest. The evacuation, which the Israeli press had dubbed the Gaza tsunami, proceeded quickly and faced minimal resistance. Critics of the policy, who had predicted civil war, were proven wrong. For many the experience recalled the 1948 Altalena affair, when David Ben Gurion ordered the shelling of a ship carrying volunteers and weapons in order to show that the country had one command. The Altalena voyage had been organised by Menachim Begin, who is said to have failed to consult Ben Gurion fully on the matter. Sharon, a man who has long followed in Begin's footsteps, is now following Ben Gurion in refusing to allow any challenge to the country's central authority. Israel is out of Gaza but is Gaza out of Israel? The evacuation has left a scar on Israel's psyche. Many, particularly religious Israelis, feel betrayed by the forcible eviction of their co- religionists. Gaza will remain an open wound for many Israelis. It was the only point on the agenda when the Israeli cabinet met on 7 August. Sixteen ministers voted for the withdrawal and five against. Binyamin Netanyahu resigned from the government, indicating his intention to challenge Sharon for the Likud leadership. Although Sharon's supporters and the Israeli left made light of Netanyahu's move, subsequent opinion polls showed the latter ahead of the incumbent Sharon by 14 per cent. Commentators described the polls, which seem to indicate Sharon's political future is once again shaky, as a shock. Yet in the last four years Sharon has seen his policies questioned by Likud at least three times. This may be a sign that Sharon is drifting closer to the centre, or that Likud is moving further right. Certainly the political ground has shifted in Israel in recent years. In the last 25 years general elections have been held on schedule only once, in 1988, and since Oslo no Israeli prime minister has completed a full term in office. Israel's smallest parties, most drawing their support on an ethnic basis, are exerting growing influence, as are the religious parties. This is happening at a time when Israel is experiencing a leadership crisis, with both Sharon and Peres nearing the end of their careers, and as Israel moves steadily closer to a presidential system. Though Meretz was disbanded to join with Yossi Beilin's Shahar, it has not changed its agenda and is unlikely to increase its share of the vote. At the same time Labour continues to drift without any sense of direction. With links with the Histadrut (Israel's General Federation of Labour) weakened, and with privatisation eclipsing the welfare state and the kibbutz, Labour is having a hard time reclaiming its central political role. Extremist forces have infiltrated Likud and are changing its structure. These right-wing forces are working under the leadership of men, such as Moshe Feiglin, with known terrorist sympathies. Feiglin's Jewish Leadership Movement now has 120 supporters within Likud's central committees. In challenging Sharon, Netanyahu, who first came to power following a spate of suicide bombings by Hamas in February 1990, is banking on an increase in Palestinian violence to boost his political fortunes. Elections are due in mid-2005, though Sharon may call them earlier. Until that happens, however, there is a number of likely scenarios. Netanyahu may make a bid for the Likud leadership, challenging not just Sharon but Uzi Landau. Should Netanyahu lose he would be tempted to break away from Likud, taking his supporters with him, and forge closer links with far right parties, including Mafdal (the National Religious Party) and Yahadut Hatorah. Should Sharon lose he may either retire or form an independent party. And should opinion polls continue to show Netanyahu ahead of Sharon the latter may opt to withdraw from Likud and form a new party. Labour faces its own dilemmas, with polls showing Peres only fractionally ahead of Histadrut leader Amir Peretz. Should the latter edge past Peres it will be the first time Labour has had a Sephardic Jew as leader. And then there is Ehud Barak, lurking in the wings and claiming to be the only person capable of beating Netanyahu in a general election. Israeli politics is in a state of flux. Likud will not be the same after Gaza, but nor will any other political party. Gaza has been the watershed and what happens in the next few weeks will shape Israeli politics for a long time to come. * The writer is director of the Maqdis Centre for Political Studies in Gaza.
