Preliminary election returns confirm Iraqi voters were divided along ethnic and religious lines, writes Salah Hemeid Saddam Hussein's trial resumed yesterday in Baghdad amid fresh concerns over national unity in the country. With some 80 per cent of the parliamentary elections' ballot boxes counted, preliminary returns showed a commanding lead by the Shia United Iraqi. Sunni Arabs who turned out en mass to vote in the nationwide balloting supported the candidates of their National Accordance list which won all the seats allocated to the Sunni provinces. Likewise, the Kurdish parties were overwhelmingly ahead in their three northern provinces. Early vote tallies also suggested disappointing results for parties and alliances with non-sectarian tickets, especially the secular alliance led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. Preliminary results obtained by Al-Ahram Weekly on Tuesday showed that the Shia alliance reaped the lion's share with some 137 seats in the 275-member parliament. The Kurdistan Alliance has secured some 57 seats -- down from the 77 seats they held in the outgoing provisional parliament -- while candidates of the Sunni list who competed for the first time won 52 seats. Allawi's Iraqi National List received only 22 seats. As early results began pouring, Iraq's Sunni groups and Allawi's list complained of election fraud. Sunnis cried foul over results in Baghdad where they are believed to have won 14 per cent of the votes which would be translated into six or seven seats from the 59 seats allocated to the capital. Khalaf Al-Elayan, a Sunni tribal chief, threatened that Sunnis will not join the new parliament nor allow a new government to be formed if results remained as announced by the Independent Iraqi Election Commission. Representatives of Allawi's list went even further in their accusation by singling out Shia election commissioners to blame for their defeat. Commission spokesman Farid Ayar told a news conference on Tuesday that "the final results will not be ready and certified until a few days into next January after completing the investigation into all complaints." He said there had so far been more than 1,000 complaints, but he dismissed any possibility for annulling results of the election. "I don't expect any dramatic change in the results," he said. US President George W Bush praised the vote but his Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad warned that results could cement divisions in Iraq and undermine US hopes of a quick return to stability that would allow for the eventual withdrawal of American troops. He also warned that sectarianism undercuts prospects for success and increases the risk for conflict among sects. "It looks as if people have preferred to vote for their ethnic or sectarian identities," Khalilzad told reporters. "But for Iraq to succeed there has to be cross-ethnic and cross-sectarian cooperation," he said. US officials had hoped a coalition government involving Sunni Arabs will weaken a Sunni-led insurgency. Washington wanted the ballot to help Iraq build a stable government that will eventually help it formulate an exit strategy from a war that is becoming increasingly unpopular with the American public. Underscoring fears that a failure to forge a united Iraqi government to torpedo such plans, President Bush called interim Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari on Tuesday and spoke of the need for "broad participation". The results of Iraq's landmark election are, therefore, pointing to a new form of deadlock. The toughest job facing the Iraqi factions after resolving the election dispute is to form a national government. After taking office the new government and the Council of Representatives should reopen debate on the constitution. Iraqis will have four months of constitutional negotiations to finally answer the contentious issue of how to apportion power and allocate oil riches in a federal state. This explains why each and every single seat in the new parliament counts. The United Iraqi Alliance, the Shia coalition, is unlikely to win the two-thirds majority needed to avoid a coalition with other parties. Ridha Taqi, an alliance official, said the Shia will still work for a broad coalition that will include Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. "We believe that all the diverse components of the Iraqi society should participate in the decision-making, including forming the upcoming government. This means that the new government will be a national unity government," Taqi told Al-Ahram Weekly. That might be easier said than done. Kurdish leaders have voiced dissatisfaction with their Shia allies and may not be ready to forge a new alliance without guarantees that the Shias will give in to Kurdish demands, including the oil-rich province of Kirkuk and other territories claimed by Kurds in the Kurdish controlled area. Kurdish leaders have made clear things were not all well. Jalal Talabani, the provisional president, repeatedly accused Prime Minister Al-Jaafari of exceeding his authority by taking decisions without consulting the president. He said he might not seek another term if his power will not be increased. Building on these cracks between the former two partners, Allawi -- afraid of being left out by the United Iraqi Alliance -- has suggested that his group form a government with the Kurdish alliance and the Sunni list. In a letter to Masoud Barzani, head of Kurdistan region, published on Tuesday, Allawi asked the Kurdish leader not to rush up to another coalition government with the Shia alliance. Such a partnership, however, could be hard to materialise, and the Kurds will more likely keep all their options open. As for Sunnis, who have reluctantly joined the political process, they will probably join an alliance that would accept to help them get a larger share in power and wealth. They will most certainly push for amendments in the new constitution which require two-thirds majority. With their 20 per cent of seats in the parliament, Sunnis alone will be voted down. However, not including them in a national government could make them spoilers of the political process. The story of the Iraqi election so far is one of success. But without building a solid national accord on the main issues that have so far split the diverse ethnic, religious and sectarian groups -- many with strong militias -- there will always be a danger of political disputes breaking out. For all that was achieved in Iraq's balloting there is a lot of unfinished business; some of it needs good will by the Iraqis themselves, the rest might depend on regional and international help.
