Iraq's provincial elections are being hailed as remarkable, but the road to democracy is still long and bumpy, writes Saif Nasrawi Millions of Iraqis voted Saturday in provincial elections widely seen as a key test of their readiness to overcome the ills of the 2003 US invasion of their country and rebuild it on a new basis of fair power- sharing and stability. According to the election commission, half of Iraq's registered voters turned out for the peaceful balloting. Faraj Al-Haidari, the head of the Independent High Electoral Commission, called the turnout "very high" for provincial elections in any country. Fifty-one per cent of the 14.9 million registered voters cast ballots, he said, labelling the weekend voting the "most important elections in the history of Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein." Voting was held in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces. The highest turnout, 65 per cent, was in the Sunni province of Salaheddin in northern Iraq, the commission said. The lowest -- 40 per cent -- was in Anbar, the Sunni heartland west of Baghdad. The sprawling desert area was dominated in 2005 by Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Saturday's turnout was less than in the last provincial elections, in 2005, when 58 per cent of voters participated in balloting that also included the selection of national lawmakers. The elections four years ago were carried out under a greater threat of violence and marked by a widespread boycott among Sunni voters. Only two per cent of voters in Sunni-dominated Anbar province turned out then; 40 per cent went to the polls Saturday. By and large the elections, the country's first in four years, were remarkable for the absence of serious attacks, highlighting security gains in the past year. But the polling took place under intense security, a reminder that Iraq is far from reaching a state of normalcy. However, there were some complaints of voting irregularities, including claims that hundreds of people were wrongly omitted from voting lists in areas across Iraq. There was mass confusion at the main voting centre in Baghdad's Zaytouna neighbourhood when dozens of voters could not find their names on registration lists. The results of Saturday's voting will be a gauge of the country's political direction and an indication of how the parliamentary elections will turn out later this year. Preliminary results from the electoral commission are expected within five days and final numbers are due at the end of February but early indications suggest that Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's slate "State of Law" appeared to have won in almost all southern Shia provinces, as well as Shia East Baghdad, and was competing for second or third place in other provinces. "Our initial counting indicates that Al-Maliki's slate has finished first and by a big margin in Baghdad, Basra and all Shia provinces except Karbala," an election official told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. Iraqi media reports quoting election officials provided similar suggestions. The Iraqi premier's electoral campaign largely focussed on bringing back security, creating a strong central government and establishing more efficient and less sectarian bureaucratic structures. The most dramatic shifts in power are expected in majority Sunni areas. Most Sunnis boycotted the 2005 elections, heeding orders of tribal leaders who denounced the US occupation. That allowed Shias and Kurds to win a disproportionate share of seats on provincial councils. Besides Al-Maliki's State of Law, other winners among Shias included the candidates of cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr's movement and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. The vote turnout was particularly high in Anbar province, where the Sunni insurgency was launched. Election officials who spoke to Iraqi media predicted that the Sunni provincial councils will be divided between the Islamic Party, the main Sunni Block in the 2005 parliament and the tribal factions of the Awakenings. President Barack Obama hailed the elections as significant, peaceful and important steps towards Iraqis taking responsibility for their future. "Millions of Iraqi citizens from every ethnic and religious group went peacefully to the polls across the country to choose new provincial councils," Obama said. "These elections mark a significant milestone for the people of Iraq, and are a major step forward in Iraq's democratic development," said US Ambassador Ryan Crocker and the US Commander-in-Chief General Ray Odierno in a statement released mid-week. After the polls closed yesterday evening, UN and Iraqi officials declared the elections -- the most heavily monitored by independent observers in recent Middle Eastern history -- as transparent and credible. "This is a good day for Iraq's democracy," said Staffan de Mistura, the top UN official in Iraq. The election is significant, as those elected will have regional power over the essentials Iraqis have been desperate for -- basic services such as electricity, water, health and jobs. But more significant is that the results should spell out the status of relations between the provinces and the central government in Baghdad. Under the provinces law, the provinces are empowered to decide if they remain linked to the government or have autonomous status. What is particularly encouraging about this election was the rise of the more centralising, secular and nationally inclusive parties especially the Iraqi List, headed by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, which is expected to come second or third in most Shia and Sunni provinces. Even Al-Maliki's Al-Daawa Islamic Party had largely abstained from using Shia religious sermons to advance their cause. Despite these positive signs, other problems arose, casting doubt on the future of Iraqi democracy, which is still characterised by severe social divisions. Political fragmentation remains Iraq's most serious challenge and without institutionalising the outcomes of these elections, Iraq's future stability could be at risk. "The huge number of candidates -- nearly 15,000 for 440 seats on the councils of the 14 provinces holding elections -- isn't really a sign of political maturity," Iraqi blogger Salam Pax wrote Sunday on his blog, the Baghdad Blogger, the most visited political blog in Iraq. Pax added that the high number of candidates shows "a combination of greed and ignorance about the duties of council members". A more alarming development was the rise of tribalism in the current elections. Both Shia and Sunni political factions invested in building vast tribal networks to support them in mobilising voters. "If Al-Maliki's slate is going to win, this would be due to his security achievements and tribal backing," a secular Iraqi official told the Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that capitalising on tribal networks will not be a solid foundation for a functioning democracy where honest political programmes are contested, but rather it will create a patronage system based on who is more able to buy loyalties. In a nutshell, advancing a more democratic process in Iraq will be Al-Maliki's next important task. If he decides to utilise his surprise victory to alienate his former Shia and Kurdish allies, some of whom are heavily armed, he will probably end up facing even greater violence and instability.
