Some Sunni-Shia reconciliation, but the Kurds are still a problem, writes Saif Nasrawi Nuri Al-Maliki was prudent enough not to publicly celebrate the second anniversary of his swearing-in as Iraq's premier last week. The prime minister has been in office since 20 May 2006, but the political challenges remain immense, and could easily reverse the security gains. Iraqi and US officials declared emphatically this week that their joint military offensive in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which is believed to be Al-Qaeda's last major urban stronghold, had wiped out most of the group networks. The US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, announced Saturday that the war against the extremist group was being won. "You are not going to hear me say that Al-Qaeda is defeated, but they've never been closer to defeat than they are now. The US military said that the number of attacks by militants in the last week dropped to a level not seen in Iraq since March 2004. About 300 violent incidents were recorded in the seven-day period that ended Friday, down from a weekly high of nearly 1,600 in mid-June last year. The improvement in the security situation in Iraq has been largely due to the nearly two-week military assault on Al-Qaeda infrastructure in Mosul where Iraqi forces and the Awakening Councils managed to capture 1,480 people, including Al-Qaeda's senior operational leaders. Iraqi troops were deployed last week in Sadr City, capitalising on a truce reached between Sadr's movement and the main Shia factions in the ruling Iraqi United Alliance which was signed 12 May. However, challenges include drafting the controversial joint Iraqi-American security agreement, formulating the new national unity government, and passing the long awaited provincial elections law. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said negotiations to conclude the security agreement with the US, which many believe will legitimise a long-term US military presence in Iraq could be concluded by July. Unexpectedly, the strongest objections to the Iraqi-US talks on the matter came from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the most revered Shia religious leader in the country. Al-Sistani, whose insistence on safeguarding the Iraqis' right to rule themselves was the main reason behind the drafting of the Iraqi constitution in 2005 earlier than scheduled by the then American-led Coalition Provisional Authority, conveyed to Al-Maliki on Thursday that he wasn't comfortable about the "secrecy" surrounding the Iraq-US negotiations over the agreement, according to an Iraqi official who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. "Al-Sistani told the prime minister that any agreement must preserve Iraq's full sovereignty over its territory and oil revenues," the official said. He added that the Grand Ayatollah also warned that the agreement shouldn't compromise the Shias' political gains since the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, and shouldn't implicate the country into unnecessary problems with its neighbours, especially Iran. Al-Maliki convened a meeting of the Iraqi Political and National Security Council which includes Iraq's top leaders to discuss the negotiations over the bilateral security agreement with the United States that is meant to replace the UN mandate that governs American military operations in Iraq that ends on 31 December 2008. Nasser Al-Ani, a spokesman for the presidential council, said that the council "carefully and thoroughly investigated the terms of the agreement and highly appreciated the efforts of the [Iraqi] negotiators who are keen in preserving the interests of Iraq and its people." However, it is still unclear how far US troops will be involved in Iraq's internal affairs and whether they can have a role in defending Iraq against external threat, an alarming indicator to Iraq's neighbours especially Iran and Syria. Al-Maliki's effort to push forward the composition of the new Iraqi unity cabinet took a blow when leaders of the Iraqi Front Accord (IFA), the main Sunni block in the Iraqi parliament, threatened to boycott the talks with him. They accused Al-Maliki of vacillating over the conditions and principles under which members of the IFA will join the government accordingly. Negotiations between Al-Maliki and the IFA leaders to join the cabinet began mid-April when the Sunni block, which occupies 44 seats of Iraq's 275-parliament, saw encouraging signs by the government to crack down on Shia militias. Al-Maliki put two conditions for the IFA to return to the government: first they present "professional" candidates and, second, all three bodies within the front must be represented fairly. A senior Iraqi official close to the negotiations said the Iraqi prime minister objected to the list of candidates presented by the IFA two weeks ago because it included "unqualified candidates". The official, who declined to be identified, told Al-Ahram Weekly that, "some of the candidates were unqualified, while others are believed to be troublemakers who won't benefit the process of [political] reconciliation." He added that Al-Maliki insisted that the post of deputy prime minister be assigned to Khalaf Al-Alyan, head of Iraq's Council of Dialogue, one of the three political forces comprising the front. Al-Maliki rejected the IFA's request to assume a key ministerial position such as the Ministry of Finance, instead of the Ministry of Planning offered initially by Al-Maliki. Political power-sharing in Iraq faced yet another challenge Monday when Iraqi politicians quarrelled over a provincial elections law and warned that differences over the bill are likely to delay for at least a month the crucial vote planned for this fall that could rearrange Iraq's political scene. The elections, which choose councils for Iraq's 18 provinces, are seen as a key step in repairing the country's sectarian rifts, particularly by opening the door for greater Sunni Arab political representation. Many Sunnis boycotted the last election for provincial officials in January 2005, enabling Shias and Kurds to win a disproportionate share of power at their expense. One potentially striking issue surrounding the vote appeared to be resolved, Al-Maliki's inclusion in the bill of a provision banning political parties with militias from running. Al-Sadr spokesman Salah Al-Obeidi said the movement's candidates would run under other, smaller lists, not under the Sadr Movement name. "We are not a party. We will enter open lists by putting in well known figures," he said. The friction that erupted Monday focussed on the Kurds and their attempts to increase their power in the northern oil city of Kirkuk. Kurds seek to include the city's Tamim province in their autonomous zone to the north, a step opposed by the area's large Sunni Arab and ethnic Turkoman populations and other communities. The Kurds stormed out of a meeting of the heads of the major factions on the sidelines of parliament Monday, held to work out differences over a bill organising the vote put forward by Al-Maliki last month, demanding that Tamim province be counted as a single voting district, apparently believing that their community will outweigh voting by other groups. The bill as it stands says the number of districts depends on a province's population. Turkoman lawmaker Abbas Al-Bayati said his community wants Tamim to have four districts to better ensure that the voices of areas dominated by Turkomans, Sunni Arabs and other groups are not drowned out. Another controversial issue is whether to allow for open lists to compete in the elections contrary to the terms of the current bill which only permit closed lists. Smaller parties claim that closed lists had largely undermined their chances to score better in the previous elections. Iraq's Independent Election Commission has said the law must be passed by 1 June for it to have time to organise the vote before the 1 October deadline. A delay will mean parliament will have to pass a separate law pushing back the election to November or December.
