Unlike his predecessor, Raymond Odierno might face an even tougher job of maintaining a secure Iraq, writes Saif Nasrawi The newly appointed United States commander in Iraq, General Raymond Odierno, will be entrusted with what might be the most serious challenge to American policy in the region -- simply sustaining a secure and democratic Iraq. Succeeding General David Petraeus, who is widely accredited with saving Iraq from a comprehensive civil war, Odierno clearly knows that his mission would be persuading and pushing Iraqi political factions towards greater power-sharing. Odierno, who served as the second- ranking US commander in Iraq for 15 months until February, is aware that the security gains obtained as a result of the "surge" strategy remain insufficient as long as they are not transformed into tangible political outcomes. "Iraq is now a different country from the one I had seen first. However, we must realise that these gains are fragile and reversible," he told the ceremonial gathering which took place Tuesday in a former Saddam Hussein palace on the outskirts of Baghdad. The shaven-headed general declared that it is the responsibility of Iraq's leaders to build on the improvement in security conditions to create a more embracing political atmosphere. "Time is changing. Iraq is going to take more responsibility. The environment has changed. What I hope to see is a change from military to political, economic and diplomatic strategy. This struggle is theirs to win," he said. On the eve of the transfer, Odierno was given a powerful reminder of the violence when a series of bomb blasts killed at least 34 people. "He knows we are at a pivotal moment -- where progress remains fragile and caution should be the order of the day," US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said at the ceremony attended by top Iraqi officials. "And as we proceed further into the endgame here, I am sure he will make tough but necessary decisions to protect our national interest," he added. As clearly pointed out by Gates, the new US commander in Iraq would be responsible for shaping an "endgame" strategy which should account for the political transitions in both Washington and Baghdad. He is in charge of ensuring that a possible reduction of 8,000 US troops in Iraq by next February would not jeopardise the security gains of the last two years. This was evident in his remarks during the ceremonial handover when he emphasised that a key challenge to his mission was making sure militant groups could not bounce back. Central to this transitional period is the current Iraqi-US negotiations over a security agreement that will replace a UN mandate at the end of the year governing the presence of US forces in Iraq. On Tuesday, Odierno reaffirmed his traditional stance that a large-scale US withdrawal from Iraq is conditional on real developments. Asked if he thought Iraqi forces would be ready to handle security by 2011, Odierno told reporters, "we'll see what the agreement says but 2011 is the date we're looking towards. I think it has to do with the capacity we're able to build. I'm cautious in making any judgements at this time." However, Odierno's most serious challenges will have to do with the dynamics of Iraqi politics. Iraq's Shia-led government will take control in October of the Awakening Councils, the US-financed Sunni Arab fighters who were responsible for driving Al-Qaeda out of Sunni areas. Iraqi Sunni leaders cast doubts about the government's promise to integrate them on equal terms into the armed forces. A roadside bomb recently killed Fouad Hassan, the local leader of Awakening patrol unit in western Baghdad's Furat district. Odierno also stressed the importance of Iraq holding provincial elections, which US officials hope will cement national reconciliation by giving groups that boycotted the last local polls in 2005 a voice in regional affairs. Iraqi political factions failed on Tuesday to reach a compromise on a local election law to organise the provincial elections scheduled to take place across Iraq in October. Kurdish leaders strongly rejected a draft local elections law in July which granted a 32 per cent equal representation in Kirkuk's governing bodies for Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen, with the remaining four per cent of the city's local councils going to the Christian minority. Arabs and Turkomens agreed this week to postpone the elections in the oil rich city of Kirkuk, but they demanded that the UN provide written guarantees that any upcoming election law in the northern city ensure their equal representation alongside their Kurdish counterparts. Also, the upcoming local elections are widely expected to reshape the Shia political scene before the parliamentary elections which will take place in May 2009. Analysts suggest that the Sadrist movement, which boycotted the 2005 local elections, will score a landslide victory, capitalising on their strong social networks among disenfranchised Shia communities in central and southern Iraq. Failing to integrate the Sadrists into the political process will indeed put huge pressure on the movement's leader, Moqtada Al-Sadr to terminate a 14-month ceasefire which is largely viewed by many experts as a fundamental reason behind the reduction of violence.
