No days off during constitutional amendments referendum: Cabinet    Egyptian community in US will be voting "yes" on constitutional amendments    Investing in people helps to share in benefits of economic growth, technological progress    For its 10th time: L'Oréal Group recognised as one of world's most ethical companies    Public Enterprise Sector companies' net profit up by 52% to EGP 11.3bn in FY 2017/18    Trump forces Brussels' hand on trade despite tariffs backlash    Tobruk Parliament calls on UN Security Council to stop Qatari, Turkish intervention    Uber adds new feature for female drivers to drive only women in Saudi Arabia    Two Egyptian females win 2019 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting    Beyond chocolate: The egg in art and design    Made in Germany, heard in Spain: The Leon cathedral organ connection    Edward Said: remembering a Palestinian patriot    Megalith tombs reveal secrets of European stone age    Wasteful Ahly suffer defeat against Pyramids FC to drop off top spot    The people want peace, but not 'Talibanisation of the country, Afghanistan Chief Executive says    Egypt's Mufti urges citizens to take part in referendum on constitutional amendments    Egypt's FM orders preparations be completed ahead of overseas referendum    Death toll exceeds 200 in Tripoli fighting: WHO    Iraqi PM Abdul Mahdi met Saudi crown prince in Riyadh    Olympics:Tokyo ticket lottery to launch for domestic sales on May 9    At least 29 killed in Madeira when tourist bus veers off the road    Egypt's Sisi pardons prisoners on Sinai Liberation Day    Moody's upgrades Egypt's rating to B2, expects more economic growth    Guardiola vows Manchester City will 'stand up' in title race after 'cruel' exit    Expected exit    Spectacular scene, favourable draw    Reining in inflation    The economic way ahead    Sudanese demand ‘legitimate change'    Theatre on the border    The Brotherhood goes to Washington    Escaping expenses    ‘I don't want sympathy'    Pasta vegetable salad    The final draft    Towards the referendum    Flight prices go sky high    Bundeli Kala Parishad troupe's Indian folk dance show at Al-Gumhouriya Theatre is a must go    Paris' Notre Dame    Screen blues    Towards the referendum    Parliament approves constitutional amendments allowing Al-Sisi extra term till 2030    Syria fuel shortages, worsened by US sanctions, spark anger    Vatican willing to offer technical know-how to help restore Notre-Dame    Al-Azhar condemns racist chants against Liverpool's Mohamed Salah    Mentally frail Borussia Dortmund relying on individual brilliance    German Football Ambassador 2019: Klopp, Kroos, Podolski on the list    In the company of the philosopher Roshdi Rashed in Paris    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.





Deal not dead
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 18 - 01 - 2018

US President Donald Trump last week set conditions for the US remaining committed to the Iran nuclear deal that must be met before May when he is set to recertify Iran's compliance with the accord.
However, his demands and the conditions asked of the US's European allies in working with the US on certifying the deal are difficult to achieve, and they will be hard, if not impossible, for the political leadership in Iran to accept.
Trump wants Iran to halt its missile programme beyond the 10-year timeframe of the nuclear deal, extending the agreement for good such that Iran will never again be permitted to enrich uranium or be trusted to resume its nuclear programme even if it can prove that it is peaceful.
It is now almost 40 years since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and the US and Iran are still at loggerheads. In the past, each time the US approached the regime with an olive branch, the hardliners who dominating the power structure in Iran said no, refusing to normalise relations with the “Great Satan”. Each time the country's reformists pressed for normalisation, they ruined the opportunity.
The clerics that rule Iran see any relations with the West, particularly with the US, as a threat to the religious hierarchy and their power. If they open the door to the West, they will not be able to continue their dictatorship and human rights abuses against civilians.
As if holding the Iranians as hostages, Iran's ruling clerics have intimidated the region and given the international community an enormous headache because of their nuclear programme. Iran only finally agreed to negotiate with the Western powers on the nuclear file because the economic sanctions had broken the nation and emptied the ayatollahs' pockets.
The deal was made in July 2015, but since then neither people's living conditions nor the regime's regional behaviour has changed, and much of the nation's income continues to be spent on furthering the regime's ambitions and its members' well-being.
The Western powers believe that if Iran resumes its nuclear programme this may lead it to make nuclear weapons. As a result, most Western countries aside from the US think the deal is best left untouched but for talks about other issues to continue, including Iran's ballistic missiles programme and the regional involvements of Iranian militias.
Trump's waiving of the sanctions against Iran for the “last time” and giving the country a three-month ultimatum took place despite the US's European allies, many of which were part of the talks with Iran and support the agreement, putting enormous pressure on Trump to push him to remain committed to the agreement.
Trump has not killed the Iran nuclear deal, but he has crucially weakened it. He reluctantly recertified the deal, but also caused investors interested in entering the Iranian market from making any decisions for at least another three months.
The political leadership in Tehran, which has so much invested in terms of the country's economic improvement under the nuclear deal, understands the consequences the nation could face without the deal and if the oil embargo against Iran is re-imposed in May 2018 when Trump is supposed to recertify Iran's commitment to it.
In the meantime, the Iranian people have a dream of a better political and economic life as a result of the nuclear deal, and this dream of better relations with the outside world is now fading.
There is no doubt that Trump's diplomacy in the Middle East is about Israel's security first and foremost, and while Iran has not changed its behaviour in the region, Israel sees the main threat to it coming from Iran, where the regime has said it wants to destroy it.
With the support Iran has given to radical groups such as Hizbullah and Hamas and militias hostile to Israel, and with a new such militia being formed in Syria near the Israeli border, US tolerance of Iran is almost zero.
Trump can use Iran's missiles programme, the country's regional behaviour and Israel's security, plus the way it treats its own citizen, as reasons to refuse to recertify the nuclear deal. The situation is thus very different to what it was under former US president Barack Obama.


Clic here to read the story from its source.