Fresh UN sanctions are dismissed by Tehran as its nuclear programme marches on, writes Amani Maged Even before the ink had dried on the Security Council resolution imposing a fourth round of economic sanctions on Iran, Washington, the EU and Australia began to speak of the possibility of harsher sanctions. But in a sudden and striking counterpoint to the increasing menace in their tone, French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France was ready to begin negotiations with Tehran "without delay". What lies behind these shifts and inconsistencies in Western positions? Beginning with the country that champions escalating the confrontation with Iran, Washington took the recent Security Council sanctions resolution as occasion to add another state owned Iranian bank, five companies fronting for the Iranian Shipping Company and the Revolutionary Guards commanders to its blacklist. In addition, Treasury Secretary Timothy Gates stated that his country would take further measures to increase the economic pressures on Iran and that it would target the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in particular. Last week, the Post Bank of Iran became the 16th Iranian bank to be blacklisted by the US Treasury. The US Treasury alleges that this bank has dealt with agencies contributing to the spread of weapons of mass destruction. They add that it was acting as a front for the international operations of the Bank of Sepah, which has been under UN sanctions since 2007. In addition to the five shipping companies the US has just sanctioned on the grounds of fronting for the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, the US Treasury added 27 mover ships to its blacklist and updated a list of 71 other blacklisted ships whose names had been changed. The latest US sanctions also went for the elite Revolutionary Guards, targeting IRGC commander Mohamed Ali Jafari and head of the Basij militia Mohamed Reza Naqdi. The IRGC oversees many of the country's weapons programmes, especially those concerning long-range self-propelled missiles. In a related development, EU leaders announced new range of sanctions restricting certain categories of investment in Iran, technology transfers, and the provision of various types of goods and services. The bans target the oil and gas sectors, but primarily focus on military-related activities and products. The EU also introduced further restrictions on commercial transactions. Many analysts claim that the latest round of EU sanctions are harsher than those approved by the Security Council, because they extend beyond the energy sector to the financial, insurance and transportation sectors. Iran, however, has shrugged off the latest rounds of economic sanctions. President Ahmadinejad has described them "irrational and ineffective" and charged that their real aim was to "alleviate the growing pressures on the Zionist regime". Then, reverting to its customary brinksmanship, Tehran prohibited two International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from entering Iran and signalled to the West that it was pushing full steam ahead on major national projects. Among these is the development of the Pars oilfields, with regard to which Ahmadinejad announced a recent agreement for the extraction of oil in six phases from these fields. The largest contract of its kind in the history of the Iranian petroleum industry, the project will be carried out by Iranian labour. Iranian officials have also stressed that sanctions will fail to resolve the Iranian nuclear question. They maintain that only European firms will suffer, for the sanctions will have little impact on the Iranian economy and military. According to Ali Asghar Sultania, Iran's ambassador and representative to the IAEA, the UN sanctions targeting military technology and equipment will not weaken his country's defence capacities, since Iran was already self- sufficient in the production of artillery, tanks, helicopters and naval vessels. Yet, even while Western powers notch up the pressure against Iran, President Sarkozy suddenly announced that his country would like to open a dialogue with Iran. "We adopted new sanctions not to punish Iran but to persuade its leaders to return to the path of negotiations," he said. He went on to say that France was ready to begin talks "without delay" in the IAEA in Vienna on the basis of the "Brazilian-Turkish efforts" and the response issued by Russia, France and the US earlier this month. The French president's announcement signals an attempt to kick-start negotiations between Iran and the "six powers" (the US, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia). Responding to this overture, Ahmadinejad stated that Iran is ready to resume dialogue with Western nations over its nuclear programme, but that it had conditions that he could not disclose at this time. He took the occasion to underline, again, that the sanctions would not stop Iran's nuclear activities. "We will not budge an inch off our nuclear course because of sanctions," he said. Analysts, too, are largely of the opinion that the latest round of economic sanctions will have little impact on Iranian resolve. Contending with sanctions since the 1980s, Tehran has acquired numerous strategies for circumventing them or offsetting their effects. In particular, it has succeeded in developing increasingly close economic ties with numerous countries, including China, Russia and the EU. These countries, for their part, are unlikely to sacrifice the economic interests vested in their relationships with Iran. For example, Moscow is still developing the nuclear reactors at Bushehr and will go ahead with the delivery of a shipment of S300 missiles, which it argues are not banned under the latest UN sanctions. It has also signed an agreement to strengthen economic ties with Iran in the field of energy. Nor does it appear that China's strong commercial relations have weakened following the latest UN resolution on Iran. It thus appears that as tough as the sanctions may seem, they will not push the Iranian nuclear programme off course. It seems equally clear that the West's push to isolate Tehran economically is not so much aimed at "punishing" Iran as it is at drawing a roadmap back to the negotiating table where the West will try to persuade Tehran to lower its ambitions on uranium enrichment while Iran will continue to push for higher ceilings in this and other concessions from the West. One can suspect that quite soon the two sides will be announcing new understandings that could pave the way to a relaxation of sanctions or a military strike.
