Amani Maged wonders if the fourth round of sanctions will make any difference The Security Council has just issued a new bundle of sanctions against Tehran, but will they work? Will they bring fulfilment to the West's demand that Iran abandon its resolve to pursue its nuclear enrichment activities and sign on to confidence-building measures with international agencies? Or will Tehran continue to defy the international community and cling to its right to develop its nuclear programme as it sees fit? Expanding on the three earlier rounds of sanction, the fourth and latest round targets the Iranian banking sector, prohibiting the opening of new branches of Iranian banks abroad and banning Iranian government agencies from opening new accounts in foreign banks. It expands an earlier ban on arms sales to Iran to include heavy offensive weapons, and it calls for the creation of a stop and search system of vessels travelling to and from Iran, including fuel and supply carriers. It also targets members of the Revolutionary Guard with an eye to restricting their commercial activities. Iran has been subjected to sanctions of one sort or another since the beginning of the 1980s. It has become such a normal phenomenon that, as Amir Mousavi, an Iranian strategic analyst, put it, "Iranians can no longer live without economic sanctions... We can't work and we can't produce without this kind of pressure." The ever-lengthening list of sanctions against Iran grows and grows. It cover bans on the sale and transfer of microtechnology, freezing of Iranian assets in American banks, and sanctions against Iranian banks, including the Central Bank of Iran, for allegedly having transferred funds to Hizbullah and Hamas. In 2007, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions of its own. These were upgraded several days ago to tighten credit restrictions to Iranian banks, companies and individuals and to institute inspections of goods destined to Iran via aerial and maritime shipping firms. The previous three rounds of international sanctions were passed in 2006, 2007 and 2008, in the form of Security Council resolutions 1737, 1747 and 1803. Collectively, they incrementally escalated the economic pressures on Iran through increasing restrictions on trade, technology imports, loans from international financial institutions, and credit facilities, and through travel bans on Iranian figures. These three resolutions obtained the unanimous approval of all Security Council members, with the exception of 1803, in which one country abstained. Nevertheless, Iran persisted in its nuclear development activities, which it claims is for peaceful purposes. The latest round was adopted by a vote of 12 to three (of which one was an abstention). The Revolutionary Guards is another key Iranian institution that has been singled out in this round of international sanctions, though the guards have previously been in American crosshairs. In response to Tehran's declaration of its intent to enrich uranium up to 20 per cent purity, the US treasury froze the assets of four subsidiaries of Khatam Al-Anbia, a major construction firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. This huge economic entity had been targeted by US sanctions in 2007. The US treasury froze the assets of Revolutionary Guards General Rostam Qasem who oversees the four subsidiaries, which are the Fater Engineering Institute, the Imensazen Consultant Engineers Institute, the Makin Institute and the Rahab Institute. The Khatam Al-Anbia company took over various construction projects from such large international firms as Total and Shell. Despite the Revolutionary Guards' growing involvement in major petroleum and investment projects, many analysts believe that these sanctions will have little effect. They argue that the extensive range of activities of the Revolutionary Guards in the country will offset the impact of the Western-imposed sanctions. Iran has managed to capitalise on its situation since the 1980s in order to strengthen its commercial relations with many countries, notably Russia, China, EU countries, as well as several developing nations such as Syria, Venezuela and India. Iran sits atop 10 per cent of the world's known oil reserves, as a result of which its economy is primarily based on energy resources. In 2007, Iran earned $57 billion in oil export revenues, which accounted for about half of the government's total revenues. Oil exports make up about 80 per cent of Iran's total exports. Nevertheless, the Iranian economy is not a perfect picture in health. The rates of inflation and unemployment are climbing. In addition, in February Iranian imports of gasoline were 23 per cent higher than its gasoline exports. Javanfekr, adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said that the refineries currently under construction will be ready in a few months and capable of meeting 60 per cent of Iranian needs. Although Russia voted in favour of all four sanction rounds, so far, its extensive trade relations with Iran have remained strong and are unlikely to be affected by the latest UN Security Council resolution. Russia has developed the nuclear reactors at Bushehr and has agreed to deliver a shipment of S300 missiles to Iran. Russia and Iran, along with Qatar, recently signed an agreement to strengthen economic bonds between them in the field of energy. The three countries possess 40 per cent of the world's natural gas resources. In addition, since 2008, Russia and Iran have been developing closer commercial relations in the fields of agriculture, communications and aviation. In view of the provision of the new sanctions resolution placing tighter restrictions on arms sales to Iran, a question has arisen over whether Moscow will recant on its pledge to deliver the S300 missiles. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov asserts that Russia still has the right to send Iran these missiles. He said, "the sanctions resolution on Iran lists the UN's classification criteria for standard weapons, heavy artillery, military aircraft, naval helicopters and ships, tanks and light weapons. Defensive weapons are not subject to the embargo. When we speak in the language of law, and not in the language of propaganda, nothing impedes our sale of this type of weapon to Iran. Whether or not we actually do so is a political decision." He added that in light of the growing trade relations and the accumulating mutual interests between his country and Iran, Moscow would not sacrifice that relationship. The same applied to the "S300 card" decisions which the West is attempting to meddle in as much as Iran. China is bound to Tehran by important economic and commercial relations. Like Russia, it, too, supported the three previous rounds of sanctions yet continues to enhance cooperation with Iran. Several Chinese firms contributed to developing Iranian capacities in energy production, testimony to which are $2 billion worth of contracts to develop the north Azerbaijan oil field and another $3 billion worth of contracts to produce liquified natural gas in the South Bari field. China has a $29 billion volume of trade with Iran. However, this is only the official figure; experts have estimate that if we take into account the amount of Chinese products that pass into Iran via the UAE, the figure would be in excess of $36 billion. Consumer goods and machines form a significant share of Iranian imports from China, while Iran supplies China with 12 per cent of its energy needs. According to the latest forecast by the China National Petroleum Corporation, China's imports of Iranian oil could increase by as much as 9.1 per cent next year. So far Iran has declared that its parliament will consider reducing its cooperation with the IAEA. It will press ahead with its nuclear development programme, as its atomic energy agency chief Ali Akbar Salehi announced following the passage of the sanctions bill. There is also a possibility that it could threaten to intercept and inspect foreign vessels in the Gulf, if its own ships are stopped and searched in implementation of the latest Security Council resolution. However, whatever actions it takes will be governed to a large extent by the mutual interests between Iran and the countries with which Iran has assiduously worked to strengthen its relations. Most likely, this network of relations will also help the fourth round of sanctions pass without incident, at least until further notice.
