Ten days after the resignation of the Lebanese prime minister along with the internal purge in Saudi Arabia, both announced on Saturday, 4 November, the former in a televised speech to a Saudi-owned TV channel, the prime minister of Lebanon remains in Saudi Arabia to time of writing, 12 November. And the domestic situation in Saudi Arabia raises questions about the future political stability of the Saudi monarchy as well as the prospects of reducing Saudi-Iranian tensions that have been fanning the fires of regional instability, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon in the north, to Yemen in the south, over the last three years. These tensions reached their climax with the severance of diplomatic relations between the two governments in January 2016. The Saudi-Iranian confrontation witnessed a serious escalation when the Houthis in Yemen, hours after the resignation of the Lebanese prime minister, targeted Riyadh International Airport with a ballistic missile intercepted by a Saudi anti-ballistic missile system. Immediately after, the Saudi government said that the Lebanese government, that has comprised ministers from Hizbullah, “declared war” on Saudi Arabia. The targeting of the International Airport in the Saudi capital was meant as a warning message to the Saudis that a Saudi-led mobilisation within Lebanon against Hizbullah and the delicate political equilibrium that has lasted for more than a year now after the successful election of a president for Lebanon, Michel Aoun, would have a serious strategic cost to the Saudis. The latest regional developments in the Middle East have raised alarm bells among world powers. From their perspective, whether in Western capitals or in Moscow, the situation in the region was already unstable enough. French President Emmanuel Macron, who went to the United Arab Emirates to participate in the inauguration of the Louvre Museum in Abu Dhabi last week, flew to Saudi Arabia Thursday, 9 November, on an unscheduled visit in an attempt to calm things down. Uppermost on his mind was the situation in Lebanon. He also talked about a possible mediation between Riyadh and Tehran. After meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, he said that he had listened to very harsh positions regarding Iran that do not conform to his own position in this respect. The White House, for its part, made a statement on 8 November that condemned in unmistakable terms the firing of the ballistic missile by the Houthis. The statement made it clear that Washington stands with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners, as well as against what it termed the “Iranian regime's aggressive and blatant violations” of international law. It drew attention to the fact that ballistic missile systems were not present in Yemen before March 2015 when hostilities had broken out between the Saudi-led Arab alliance and the Houthis and forces loyal to the former Yemeni president Ali Abdallah Saleh. The United States has called on the United Nations to conduct “a thorough examination of violence that the Iranian regime is perpetuating… in Yemen to advance its regional ambitions”. Meanwhile, the White House said the United States would continue working with “like-minded” partners to respond to Iran's destabilising activities in the Middle East. Lest the Saudis interpret, wrongly, this White House statement as an open endorsement of their positions, be it in Yemen, Lebanon or Syria, or in their confrontation with Iran, the spokesperson of the State Department, Heather Nauert, said on 9 November that the United States is monitoring the situation “closely” in Lebanon, adding that the resignation of its prime minister is an “internal matter” and calling for “no kind of escalation” of any sort. The message was not only addressed to the Saudis but also to the Israelis, who have never denied, since 2006, that their war against Hizbullah in Lebanon is still an unfinished business. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a statement that urged all parties both within Lebanon and outside to respect “Lebanon's independence”. In other words, whether speaking of the Saudis, the Iranians or the Israelis: hands off Lebanon. For the West and Russia, the present situation in the Middle East calls for cool heads and strategic restraint to prevail. To drive the point home, the US and Russia issued a joint statement, published on the Kremlin website 10 November, in which Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump pledged their commitment to Syria's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. They called on all parties in the Syrian conflict to take an active part in the political process. Furthermore, they stressed that there was no military solution to Syria's civil war. On the other hand, the United States made it clear that the Saudi siege of Yemeni ports is not acceptable. The State Department spokesperson said 9 November that there should be unimpeded access for commercial and humanitarian goods to enter Yemen. This American position came in the wake of the publication of a UN report that warned that Yemen is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis due to the ports blockade. The moves, statements and public positions made and adopted by major world powers, particularly the United States after the serious escalation 4 November, helped in avoiding a major miscalculation by either belligerents or allies and partners that could have led to a major regional confrontation. Interesting to note, in this regard, that some Israeli commentators called on the government of Israel not to precipitate a military attack against Hizbullah at the prodding of the Saudis. The clear message is that the great powers will not allow their allies and partners in the Middle East to start a war based on their own interests and calculations. Although the battle lines are quite clearly defined among regional and Arab powers, major world capitals are not ready for another military adventure in the Middle East, even if their regional allies think otherwise. It is time various capitals in the Middle East, especially in Riyadh, rethink their regional strategies. This should not be interpreted as meaning that the reckoning with Iran and its “regional proxies” is over. It has only been postponed till a firm alliance between Israel, on the one hand, and some Arab powers, on the other, stands on firmer grounds, if and when the Trump administration succeeds in working out this “grand alliance” after a peace deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis. This will become clearer after the forthcoming trip to the Middle East by US Vice President Mike Pence before year's end. The guns will keep silent, till then. The year 2018 will carry big risks as well as great promise. Which direction it would take will largely depend on how major world capitals and regional powers play their cards. As far as Egypt is concerned, the challenge will be how not to get involved in entangling alliances in the Middle East. The writer is former assistant to the foreign minister.
