The fourth National Youth Conference is expected to open in Alexandria on Monday. Convened by President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and organised by the Bibliotheca Alexandrina, it will address the Egypt 2030 Development Plan, the ambitious development programme formulated by the government, the private sector and NGOs which was two years in the making. Earlier conferences, held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Aswan and Ismailia, focused on issues directly related to young people, including ways to enhance their political participation. The fourth conference looks unapologetically to the future. Deputy Minister of Planning Nehad Al-Megharbel described the 2030 Development Plan as a long-term national strategy that will transform Egypt into an advanced economy. “In order to achieve this goal the plan targets economic growth rates of seven per cent per annum, improving the living conditions of Egyptians and moving the country forward to prosperity,” said Al-Megharbel. The conference will be held against a backdrop of heated public debate over Al-Sisi's own popularity at a time when economic reform measures are negatively affecting the lives of millions of Egyptians. An opinion poll in January by Baseera — the Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research — found Al-Sisi's approval ratings had fallen to 68 per cent. The poll was conducted two months after the government began implementing economic reforms that have led to increases in the price of fuel and basic commodities. Baseera concluded that “it looks like these tough economic measures have caused President Al-Sisi to lose much of his popularity in a short period of time.” Some commentators argue additional inflationary measures in the coming months could impact negatively on Al-Sisi's prospects in next year's presidential election. Journalist Abdallah Al-Sinawi argues that runaway inflation has caused millions of citizens who were just about managing to sink below the poverty line. “We know that these measures were unavoidable but the way they have been imposed by an unpopular government and parliament has had a negative impact on the president's own popularity on the street,” says Al-Sinawi. After four years of political and economic turmoil Al-Sisi was elected president in 2014, winning 97 per cent of the vote. He vowed to reform the economy by reducing the budget deficit and cutting government debt. More recently, he approved a $12 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latest in the ongoing series of economic reforms, implemented on 29 June, cut fuel subsidies by more than 30 per cent, bringing total fuel price hikes to 80 per cent in eight months. Hussein Eissa, head of parliament's Budget Committee, told Al-Ahram Weekly that “the IMF-inspired reforms are a bitter medicine we have to take and which is already paying dividends.” “They have saved Egypt from bankruptcy. In November 2016 foreign exchange reserves were below $14 billion, the lowest in two decades. After eight months of implementing bold reforms reserves are now more than $32 billion, the highest figure in eight years.” Eissa adds that improved security conditions are helping the economy to recover. “Tourist traffic to Egypt has risen. In March this year the sector generated $480 million compared to $200 million for the same period last year.” Eissa dismisses reports that the tough economic reforms have caused Al-Sisi's approval ratings to shrink. “These reforms might have caused public anger but the fact is most people acknowledge that they are necessary.” A majority of political parties represented in parliament also concede the reforms are inevitable. What concerns them is the manner of implementation and lack of public consultation. The Conservative Party insists that reports of a fall in Al-Sisi's approval ratings are at best misleading. “President Al-Sisi is the most transparent head of state Egypt has ever had. He has always told the public the truth,” said the party in a statement issued on 30 June. Bloomberg reported this month that a new welfare package that aims to protect the poorest from the impact of the reforms will cost LE85 billion in the 2017-2018 budget. Last week Tarek Amer, governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), told the daily Al-Ahram that “the CBE's decision in November to raise interest rates to 16 and 20 per cent on personal deposits had helped shield savers from the negative effects of the IMF accord.” “Banks have received more than LE330 billion in deposits since November and many families now depend on the returns to mitigate the effects of inflation,” said Amer. In a televised speech on the fourth anniversary of the 30 June Revolution Al-Sisi promised “the day will come when we are all in a better position.” He said that it was no longer possible to put off the inevitable reforms. Alaa Abed, head of parliament's Human Rights Committee, told the Weekly that Al-Sisi's speeches and the reforms implemented since he came to office show clearly that he is not “a populist” president. “A populist president will say what the people want to hear in speeches, boosting salaries and food subsidies whatever the economic costs. This is what presidents [Gamal Abdel-] Nasser, [Anwar Al-] Sadat and [Hosni] Mubarak did, leaving the country burdened with chronic debts and huge budget deficits.” Al-Sisi has repeatedly urged the public to be patient when it comes to waiting for the benefits of the reform programme, arguing that after decades of mismanagement the government was “embracing necessary reforms which had been put on hold generation after generation”. In April Al-Sisi told the public that he “will not allow the country to fall apart just to save my popularity ratings. I have opted instead for a course that will give my countrymen a better future.” Al-Sinawi warns that the repeated calls for patience are wearing thin. “The public has listened to them, and each time they shoulder greater burdens.” No opposition figure has announced serious plans to stand in next year's presidential election. Hamdeen Sabahi told journalists “there should be one opposition candidate against Al-Sisi next year since more than one would split the vote and guarantee Al-Sisi is re-elected.” While seeming to rule himself out as a candidate Sabahi argued that a figure behind which the opposition could unite would be able to “exploit Al-Sisi's unpopular economic policies and his move to cede two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia to rally voters against electing him for a second term”. Mohamed Anwar Al-Sadat, expelled from parliament last February, has hinted to parliamentary reporters that he might run next year, and speculation is growing about the intentions of political activist Khaled Ali, former presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik, and one-time Muslim Brotherhood leader Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh. “The people chose to elect a military figure in 2014 not only because they had lost trust in politicians after two revolutions in four years but because they thought the country's former military chief would be most capable of fighting terrorism and restoring stability,” notes Al-Sinawi. Which begs the question of how much ongoing terrorist attacks against security forces will impact on the way people vote. Will the public question the effectiveness of Al-Sisi's aggressive campaign against terrorism and seek a new approach at the ballot box? MP Margaret Azer told the Weekly she has no doubts that Egypt's Christians will continue to back Al-Sisi. “Egyptian churches faced some of the worst terrorist attacks last year but Copts believe they are part of a global Islamist jihad against Christians that will take some time to disappear completely,” said Azer. Security officials this month urged Copts not to visit monasteries and churches in secluded areas, warning of increased terrorist threats. All of the above issues are likely to be discussed at next week's National Youth Conference. Eissa also expects “a general review of the IMF reform programme”.
