It's safe to say that commentator Abdallah Al-Sinnawi is a firm supporter of President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi. Like almost every other anti-Islamist Al-Sinnawi saw the former chief of the army as the first choice for president, a man who could, on the basis of his uncontested popularity, restore a society staring disintegration in the face. Al-Sinnawi supported Al-Sisi's presidential bid and a year after the election continues to support him. He still hopes the president will be able to deliver, yet twelve months after Al-Sisi was elected Al-Sinnawi is unwilling to gloss over his concerns about the president's performance. In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly Al-Sinnawi made no bones about Al-Sisi not offering a cohesive, comprehensive vision costing him support. “I think he may have lost 30 per cent of those who were originally on his side,” says Al-Sinnawi, a fact which the commentator warns is being used by Al-Sisi's adversaries from outside the Islamist camp to undermine the sustainability of his presidency. It has been a tough year for the president who “clearly has huge popularity and the support of home and foreign players but who was short on basic political instincts given his background as an army officer”. Today, says Al-Sinnawi, Al-Sisi is honing his political skills on the job, and though “we can argue whether or not he has gone far enough we have to admit he is improving.” Al-Sisi, argues Al-Sinnawi, “is aware that his first year in office is ending in a crisis”. “The drop in support from groups that should form a natural constituency is much larger than it should be, and he has failed to gain any new support from outside what we canterm the 30 June constituency”. “I am certain that he sees there is a problem but I'm less sure about whether he sees all the details of the problem. Its roots go well beyond what might be qualified as the media campaign that has recently been targeting the president.” The president, says Al-Sinnawi, devotes a great deal of time and energy to the smallest details of those files which influence people's lives, especially when it comes to food prices and energy. “This is his background, the discipline to which he subscribes: work hard, stand together and put up with hardships. It is a military discipline in essence, an approach that has been working on some fronts, on security and overall economic indicators”. But is it enough for the president to deliver on the hopes vested in him when Mohamed Morsi was removed? “There has been progress,” says Al-Sinnawi,“but it remains basic and needs to be stabilised. What is needed is the kind of coherent, comprehensive vision that guarantees the progress continues.” “In all fairness it has to be acknowledged Al-Sisi assumed office against a backdrop of daunting political, security and socio-economic challenges. To meet these challenges and hold onto the support of his own constituency the president should by now have offered his vision for the future. Hard work is all very well but it cannot succeed in the absence of a clear vision.” While this absence was understandable in the early weeks — even the early months — of Al-Sisi's presidency, a year since he took his oath of office it is growing into a gaping hole at the heart of his administration. “Because he does not have a clear vision he cannot, despite an instinctive bias towards the poor, decide on a coherent economic policy. We are seeing plans to eliminate subsidies in the absence of an efficient social safety net. There are no policies being pursued to reduce the huge gap between the very rich and the very poor.” Instead, says Al-Sinnawi , Egypt seems to be pursuing — “almost unwittingly” — the economic agenda once championed by the Policies Committee of the Mubarak-era National Democratic Party which was run by Mubarak's younger son Gamal. “This may not be what Al-Sisi wants but it is what is happening. It is a direct result of the lack of a cohesive vision.” “As business tycoons push things further in the direction of the economic choices they favour there is growing skepticism over the president's performance.” “Much of the erosion in Al-Sisi's support is coming from the urban middle class, a group that throughout Egypt's modern history has provided the make-or-break factor for any political dispensation. Fortunately a majority still believes in Al-Sisi and wants him to defy their fears about his prospects.” “It is not too late for the president to win back the faith of those who supported him. But to regain support, especially among the urban middle class, action must be taken to halt declining living conditions. Yet these seem to be set for another drop with a new round of subsidy cuts.” Nor does Al-Sinnawi discount concerns about liberties and freedoms, failure to hold parliamentary elections or apply the stipulations of the new constitution. They are all issues, he argues, that are central to the middle classes. For the poorer sections of society, Al-Sinnawi warns, “further economic woes will be hard to tolerate”. “Those at the lower end of the socio-economic scale took to the streets in support of Al-Sisi carrying the posters of Gamal Abdel-Nasser. It would be a mistake to assume what this signified was the appeal of a strong leader. It was also about the demands for social justice that have continued to echo since being raised in Tahrir Square in January 2011.” Anything short of the “unhesitant pursuit of social justice could cost the president yet another sharp drop in his popularity,” says Al-Sinnawi . “A worst case scenario could see Al-Sisi lose 50 per cent, maybe even more, of his existing constituency. This would be very disturbing. It would then not only be about the president, but the nation's hopes for stability and development.” Should Al-Sisi continue in the coming months to pay more heed to “Anwar Al-Sadat rather than Gamal Abdel-Nasser” there is no guarantee that there will not be “food riots like those Egypt saw in 1977”. In 1977, as in 2011, Al-Sinnawi argues, the core issue is social justice. “Yes, for the overwhelming majority of Egyptians stability is central. But what we have to realise if that sustainable stability is not exclusively conditional on security policy. It is also dependent on political and socio-economic choices”. In the absence of coherent socio economic policies “and the continued ad hoc administration of things ranging from the situation in Sinai to the economy” the chances of delivering better living standards are negligible. Summer, Al-Sinnawi warns, is unlikely to be easy for the regime. Not only will there be power shortages — “something Al-Sisi went too far in raising the bar about the chances of resolving prior to his nomination” —but growing reverberations from the verdicts issued against the Muslim Brotherhood figures. “And worst of all, perhaps, there will be the unmistakable presence of faces and policies that date from the Mubarak regime. The tycoons whose actions helped bring down Mubarak will be increasingly visible.” “Many candid people are advising the president to turn a page on the past and make a fresh start,” says Al-Sinnawi. But for this to happen Al-Sisi needs to take effective legal steps to curtail the power of businessmen who are trying to blackmail the regime into adopting economic policies that can only result in “a tidal wave of public discontent”. The president also needs to break away from “the policies of quasi oppression and masked political monopoly” and address the lack of accountability and absence of transparency. “The constitution has been overlooked for too long, and parliamentary elections cannot be further delayed,” says Al-Sinnawi . “It's all about having a vision for the future. That vision cannot be the work of the president alone. He needs a serious advisory board, and some serious political dialogue. I mean a real political dialogue and not just a photo opportunity.” “All of Al-Sisi's predecessors, with the exception of Mohamed Morsi, called for political dialogue at moments of political and social stress” even if only to defuse tensions. “We have reached a point where it would be dangerous to ignore political tensions, and I'm not just talking about the Islamists”. “From what I've seen Al-Sisi is aware of the problem. Now he needs to think of ways to address it. He needs to think of an exit, and I trust that will come up with one. He has the will and his heart really is in the right place”. “The president still enjoys the support of the majority. The question, therefore, is not about who wants to bring him down but who wants to help him succeed. Those who want to help are still the larger group.” But the equation is not static. “Continued lack of vision could force more people to abandon the hope they placed in a president they once thought to be a saviour” The immediate problems facing Al-Sisi, according to Al-Sinnawi , will be how to deal with the backlash created by fresh reductions in subsidies, unrealistic expectations over the revenue generated by the expanded Suez Canal, and a failure to meet the foreign investment targets, “the heavily exaggerated billions promised in the media.” “Should the new channel of the Suez Canal be inaugurated, as planned, on 6 August, then Al-Sisi can look forward to a good day. But what really counts for the public is not a grand inauguration attended by world leaders but the job opportunities the project generates.” “The celebration will not be over for long before people realise the mega project's returns, both in terms of new jobs and increased state revenues, are not what had been trailed. There will be a serious moment of questioning of the promises that were made. The only way to deal with this moment of scepticism is to have a convincing and credible vision in place.”
