Those who work for the campaign of prominent presidential runner Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and those who work for his most credible rival Hamdeen Sabahi know that come 5 June it will be Al-Sisi who is announced the winner. But what are the chances for the president in waiting to rule peacefully and deliver promptly? “It is one thing for him to get elected. But it is another to be able to deliver and to survive the entire four-year presidential term,” says Hanaa Hamed, a 30-year-old PR expert. Hamed was active during the past decade in opposing the rule of ousted president Hosni Mubarak and in showing discontent with the transitional management of the country under his successor Mohamed Morsi. She has no plans to vote for either Al-Sisi or Sabahi. Neither, she says, is fit to deliver the dreams of the 25 January Revolution. Like other members of her generation Hamed is doubtful that Al-Sisi can make a successful presidency. “His only claim to fame really is that he removed the Muslim Brotherhood from office. Well, Hussein Tantawi [former chief of the army] removed Mubarak from office but that did not make him a successful ruler of the interim phase,” she said. Hamed believes it would be difficult for anyone to run a successful presidency given the “huge socio-economic and political challenges” Egypt faces. She is convinced, though, that it will be “particularly hard for Al-Sisi to make it because he is a military man. We need a politician. Al-Sisi is in direct conflict with a large organised political grouping [the Muslim Brotherhood] who are determined to give him a hard time.” Hamed's view is not unusual among those of her age group and political background. It is, however, not the only view expressed by what is a politically very influential demographic. Ahmed Samir is a social media celebrity. His weekly articles and his Facebook page are a hub of endless political debate. Samir himself is an uncompromising critic of the former chief of the army, both for his role during the post-Morsi transition and for presenting himself as a candidate for the top job. Nonetheless, Samir would be “more than happy if Al-Sisi can succeed”. According to Samir, it is essential to identify the benchmarks by which Al-Sisi can be judged: a better level of security though “with respect for human rights and freedoms” and a better economic performance, though improvements will require “willingness on the side of society to be patient”. “Expectations are low and so the chances of success are not small. This is an entirely different experience from what happened after Mubarak was removed. The benchmarks have really fallen.” This might be true for the first year, says Sobhi Esseila, a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. “People might be satisfied to see some improvement in basic problems like garbage management and traffic control,” but beyond this “Al-Sisi will have to adopt a more holistic socio-economic and political approach” and move beyond pressing daily concerns over electricity cuts and the popular call to crush the Muslim Brotherhood. This is why Al-Sisi decided early — sources say from the first day he considered running for president — to compliment his wide public support with a solid base of intellectual resources represented by the advisory board that is working parallel with his presidential campaign. A prominent member of this advisory board, political commentator Amr Al-Chobaki, does not underestimate the challenges Al-Sisi faces. Nor does he discount the confusion that can arise from receiving at times sharply conflicting views on almost every single key issue. “There has to be a clear vision for his presidency. This is what he is acting to deliver because it is only with a clear vision that he can negotiate the endless challenges,” says Al-Chobaki. Some members of the advisory board argue he cannot afford to close all doors to the re-integration of Muslim Brotherhood members. Others say now is the time to be done once and for all with political Islam. The business community is demanding the president-in-waiting to unequivocally embrace the free market reforms Mubarak hesitated to introduce while some of his political advisors tell him to do so will torpedo the calls for social justice that resounded through the 25 January Revolution. “As he walks the path of the new republic Al-Sisi is fully aware that he needs to act in a way that furnishes an umbrella capacious enough to shelter those who support him and those who oppose him; this goes for the economic challenges and the key political challenge of dealing with Islamists,” says Al-Chobaki. “I think there is a clear recognition that state institutions need immediate and deep reform. What is needed is an uncompromising surgical intervention that can only be executed by someone who comes from the heart of the establishment and has considerable support there.” The ultimate objective and benchmark, Al-Chobaki argues, is to “establish a state of law, above everything and everyone”. For political scientist Mustafa Kamel Al-Sayed, Al-Sisi's success as a president “does require the realisation” that a better future is attainable only through collective effort. “Civil society is legitimately anxious over what Al-Sisi's presidency will bring them. They have already faced restrictions and seen rampant human rights violations, random arrests and torture.” So far, says Al-Sayed, “Al-Sisi has been part and parcel of the transitional authorities that have turned a blind eye to these violations and deaf ears to the complaints of civil society. But should this pattern continue it can only undermine Al-Sisi's chances for success.” “Al-Sisi is being elected as a strongman president and as such he needs to make sure — and not just promise — that these violations will be stopped, investigated and punished,” says Al-Sayed. Al-Sisi's presidency, in short, will need to engineer an end to repression-based politics, and that includes the Islamist opposition. Al-Sayed argues that Al-Sisi will have to recognise in some way that the Islamists are “a legal political force that has a level of support that must be reckoned with”. He will also need to tell the public “the ways he will finance the mega projects he is promising to deliver beyond the Arab financial assistance”. A sustainable presidency, says Al-Sayed, will need more than incremental improvements in the most basic public services or a national dialogue conducted without acknowledging the true weight of the political forces involved. “During the first months of his presidency Al-Sisi will need to focus on maintaining the support he already has. Later he can work towards expanding that support through calculated steps of reconciliation with political adversaries and the launch of ambitious projects,” says Esseila. Those who support Al-Sisi are convinced he has the ability to serve two presidential terms. They argue that he is too smart to repeat the mistakes of his predecessors and will act to deliver in the areas that matter most to people. His opponents, many of them as divorced as it is possible to be from Islamist quarters, suspect he will be unable to survive even a single term but will fall victim, just as Mubarak and Morsi did, to public outrage at the violations of human rights, economic inequality and political manipulation. see p.
