CAIRO: Egypt's political future is likely to follow one of three scenarios that involve inheritance of power or the emergence of an independent presidential candidate, political analyst Amr El-Chobaki told online news portal Masrway in an interview published Sunday. As Egypt approaches the presidential elections in 2011, El-Chobaki explained, the first scenario would see the ascendance of Gamal Mubarak, widely believed to have been groomed to succeed his father, incumbent president Hosni Mubarak. The second prediction will ensure an extension of power, which El-Chobaki referred to as “vetoing the succession scenario.” If the succession scenario is rejected by members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), MPs will be forced to vote for an independent candidate selected from within the current government, according to El-Chobaki. The third scenario involves Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and current reform advocate, running for the presidency. “The political scene is defeated and society is looking for a person from outside of this scene or the current government systems, as was the case with [Barack] Obama,” El-Chobaki was quoted as saying. The government's constant clampdown on political opposition has isolated opposition parties from the decision making and has created a political vacuum, added El-Chobaki. “El-Chobaki is entitled to his own opinion, which I respect, but the final decision will be left to the ballots,” NDP member Mohamed Kwaitah commented to Daily News Egypt. “ElBaradei is calling for change, and not to specifically be elected. He is someone from outside the [current political] scene, and he does not want to enter it,” said El-Chobaki, adding that he supports ElBaradei's stance and believes that putting pressure on the government to amend the constitution is the right thing to do. Currently, the constitution stipulates that any viable candidate must be either in a party that has existed for five years or secure a certain amount of signatures from both houses and the municipalities to run as an independent. ElBaradei is calling for changes in article 76, 77 and 88 of the constitution, all of which were instated by Mubarak in 2005 and 2007. “This will not be an easy feat but it means that he does not aknowledge the current state,” El-Chobaki told Daily News Egypt. “The constitution was drafted by the Egyptian people to prevail. Changing it is a disruption to the political structure,” Kwaitah told Daily News Egypt. “I do not predict that president Mubarak will run for elections in 2011; it's a prediction and not a certainty,” said El-Chobaki. He added that the current political scene is marred with haphazard social movements that are lacking direction and have no real connection to the policy makers. El-Chobaki predicts that this reality will change, however. “I predict a non-political orange revolution that will occur as a result of the accumulation of social grievances that the government has only temporarily resolved,” he said. “Social unrest has a strong political dimension, as was the case with El-Mahalla [textile workers riots] two years ago,” El-Chobaki told Daily News Egypt, adding that one inevitably puts pressure on the other, which he predicts will force the government to “recalculate its policies.” He believes that this will pressure the government towards reform, as it is already battling the reigniting of political movement after ElBaradei's return. Meanwhile, from an ideological viewpoint, El-Chobaki said he believes Egypt can go in two different directions: “an option that will not change the essence of Egypt's political and strategic decisions .... or a more radical option that will require Egypt to stand up in the face of Israel and end its relationship with imperialistic America.”
