Clear messages of wisdom and warnings against civil unrest were sent this week by Cairo to both Baghdad and Beirut, reports Dina Ezzat Egyptian diplomacy this week attempted to rise to the challenge presented by growing sectarianism in both Iraq and Lebanon. With Shia- Sunni conflict in Iraq reaching unprecedented levels, and with most observers believing the situation will deteriorate further, and facing political polarisation in Lebanon that has ignited open-ended demonstrations by Hizbullah, its Shia allies from the Amal Movement and some Christian groups, Cairo is confronted with a situation that does not necessarily disturb its immediate backyard but that does have serious negative implications for overall regional security and stability. For Cairo the potential deterioration of the situation in Iraq and the nightmarish scenario of a new Lebanese civil war -- even if not as destructive as in 1975 -- spells destabilisation of the entire Eastern part of the Arab world, and a possible domino effect impacting Syria as Iranian Shia influence expands. Even worse, such continued deterioration could give rise to new Israeli military operations in Lebanon or an attack against Iran, with all the negative political and economic consequences that involves. Such concerns prompted President Hosni Mubarak to personally make press statements earlier in the week warning against the chaos threatening the eastern part of the Arab world, a region already burdened with acute instability. "The situation in Lebanon is very serious and I am afraid that if it further deteriorates it will open the door for the internationalisation of the problem and this will have many serious repercussions," the president warned. Mubarak was speaking in Sharm El-Sheikh following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergy Lavrov at which they voiced concern over regional developments and stressed the need to encourage all regional players -- Syria included -- to play a constructive role to prevent further deterioration. "The situation requires more careful and wiser treatment," Mubarak said. The president expressed concern about sectarian clashes that "could simply get out of hand at any minute". Such clashes, Mubarak warned, could turn Lebanon into a scene of killing and counter-killing. "Lebanon would be at serious risk," he said. Yesterday, Mubarak was still voicing deep concern, and warning that "Lebanon stands to lose" as a result of the on-going political tension. Throughout the week Mubarak had been busy conveying messages and communicating a call for wisdom with leading Lebanese political figures, including Prime Minister Fouad Al-Seniora and the Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Beri, the leader of the Amal Movement who has conducted unsuccessful efforts over the past few weeks to promote national dialogue with the objective of reformulating the current administration into a national unity government. During his direct phone calls with the Lebanese prime minister and his messages conveyed to the speaker of the parliament through Egypt's ambassador to Lebanon, Mubarak has been keen not to appear to be taking sides or imposing his views. However, Egypt's calls for what Mubarak qualified as "a less aggressive approach in handling political differences" were better received by the government than the opposition. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly from Beirut following a meeting with Beri, Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Hussein Derar argued that Egypt is not going to be intimidated by criticism of its efforts to persuade Lebanon's major players to act sensibly. "Egypt is far from attempting to impose any views. The president said that he senses danger and asked the parties to come to a compromise that is acceptable to both sides," said Derar. He added that during talks with all concerned parties since the beginning of the early phases of the current political crisis he has attempted to build confidence between them, a task hampered by increasing sectarian polarisation. According to Derar, "Cairo's support of the government of Al-Seniora is not about taking sides; it is rather about siding with the institutions of the state and with the right of the elected government to induce stability and seek to resolve political differences through dialogue." After all, Derar added, up until their resignation a few weeks ago the current Lebanese government contained members from Hizbullah and its allies. Derar was unwilling to go into the details of who is right and who is wrong according to the view from Cairo. "We do not need to worsen the situation by throwing salt into open wounds and we refrain from interfering in internal affairs as a matter of policy," he said. Nor was he willing to discuss the regional influences that have aggravated internal Lebanese tension and caused the current political impasse. However, it is no secret that Cairo blames Iran and Syria for at least failing to encourage Hizbullah and its allies to adopt a less confrontational approach towards the government of Al-Seniora. Informed Egyptian sources tell the Weekly that despite the current rift in relations between Cairo and Damascus, mainly over what Egypt sees as Syria's determination to maintain its influence over Lebanese internal affairs, Cairo has been communicating with Damascus over the need to reduce tension in Lebanon. According to sources Egypt is again telling Syria that it could help promote stability in the region and doing so will help Damascus to escape the diplomatic isolation that some regional and international players, especially the US, are attempting to impose. The trouble, however, is that Syria has not been reciprocating. The Egyptian messages were well received but not well taken. The blame in Cairo is ultimately put at the doorstep of Tehran's attempts to reformulate the balance of power in the region -- especially the eastern part of the Arab world that has a considerable Shia population. "We do not want to give up on Syria but it is a choice for Syria to make on how far it is willing to forego other regional allies while it consolidates its ties with Iran," one Egyptian official commented. The tension between Syria and Egypt over Lebanon is part of a wider Egyptian concern that is related to what Cairo qualifies as the miscalculated Syrian approach towards the situation in Iraq as well. This week, during talks with Iraqi Foreign Minister Houshiar Zebari, President Mubarak, according to well-informed Iraqi sources, heard a long list of complaints from the visiting Iraqi official about the "negative role" that Syria has been playing in Iraq. According to the same sources Mubarak stressed to Zebari the importance of refraining from antagonising Damascus. "The president is very keen to spare Syria a situation in which it would be confronted with too many problems. We have different views from Damascus but the president has always said that stability in Syria is a red line for Egypt," commented a senior Egyptian diplomat. Mubarak, according to the Iraqi sources, encouraged Zebari to press ahead with efforts to mend fences with Damascus. The two countries recently resumed diplomatic ties. Yesterday, Mubarak reaffirmed the need for all concerned to refrain from meddling in Iraq's internal affairs. In a joint press conference held in Cairo this week between Zebari and Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit, both ministers denounced interference in internal Iraqi affairs. While Abul- Gheit insisted that Cairo was not going to publicly name names, Zebari did not shy away from explicitly criticising "all neighbouring countries" for meddling and, as a consequence, worsening the blood bath that Baghdad has become. Meanwhile Zebari, in town for a bilateral visit and to participate in an Arab League limited ministerial meeting over Iraq, affirmed to President Mubarak the need for Egypt to lead the way towards reformulating the "Arab approach towards Iraq". Speaking to reporters following his talks with President Mubarak on Tuesday at the presidential palace in Heliopolis, Zebari said that the absence of Egypt, "the leading Arab country", from Iraq would not make other Arab states hesitate to reach out to Baghdad. An hour later, after arriving at the headquarters of the Arab League, Zebari said that growing Iranian influence in Iraq is "the obvious result of Arabs' failure to communicate with Iraq". Iraqi sources speaking to the Weekly on condition of anonymity also criticised Egypt's ability to influence a more positive Iranian approach towards the Arab world. "It is Egypt that has to encourage the Iranians to adopt a less confrontational and expansionist approach towards the Arab world," a senior Iraqi official told the Weekly. "Egypt needs to get over the misconception that all Shias are necessarily elements of dissent or that all Shias are necessarily immediate supporters of Iran's regional policy," he added. The Iraqi official criticised what he qualified as the negative impact of Saudi Arabia on Cairo in this respect. "The Saudis perceive the situation in Iraq, as they do in Lebanon, in a strict Sunni versus Shia light. There is an element of that but the political context of multi- ethnic states like Iraq and Lebanon is much more complicated," he said. Such accusations are flatly rejected in Cairo. Egyptian sources tell the Weekly that during his two meetings with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal over the past 10 days, President Mubarak was vocal in affirming the need for all Arab countries to refrain from adopting positions that could aggravate an already volatile situation in Iraq. Egyptian diplomats are also keen to reject all criticism that the current state of regional affairs is simply a result of Egypt's failure to communicate with Iran. "We do talk with the Iranians. There have been high-level visits by senior Iranian officials to Egypt and there has also been communication [within multi-lateral forums]. It is not a question of talking to or with the Iranians," commented an Egyptian diplomatic source. In Cairo, the question is whether or not the Iranians are willing to abandon schemes to dominate the region that Egypt perceives as destabilising the Eastern part of the Arab world. Egypt, Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awaad said on Tuesday, following Mubarak's talks with Zebari and Al-Faisal, will do everything it can to maintain Iraq's national unity and territorial integrity. Within this framework President Mubarak is planning to receive Iraqi President Jalal Talibani this month in Egypt. Cairo has also expressed interest in a visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. Through such visits and other regional and international formats Cairo is hoping that it can contribute to curtailing the level of violence and political chaos in Iraq. However, Egyptian diplomats say they are "very realistic" about the limits of Egypt's influence -- and the influence of any international power, including the US -- in bringing real stability to Iraq any time soon. They simply hope that their efforts -- along with other Arab countries -- will prevent Lebanon falling into the abyss of sectarianism that now afflicts Iraq.
