Oscillation and contradiction are the primary characteristics of political life in Turkey in its Erdogan era, especially in recent years, since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising against the Bashar Al-Assad regime. But these traits have become increasingly pronounced over the past four weeks and are likely to become more so as the country approaches crucial parliamentary elections. These elections will determine its identity, system of government and regional and international reputation. Perhaps too, the forthcoming polls will unseat the Freedom and Justice Party (JDP), which has dominated political life for the past 13 years, or at least alleviate its pervasive and exclusivist grip. Signs of this possibility are to be found in the cracks and fissures that have begun to permeate the JDP establishment, not so much due to ideological differences as to conflicting interests within its ranks. The sharpening polarisations between party co-founder, current President and “big brother” Recep Tayyip Erdogan and factions seeking to unclench the grip of his control portend rebellion ⎯ if it is not already in progress ⎯ against the occupant of Ak Saray, the White Palace, in Ankara. It appears that his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is growing uncomfortable in the role and function that Erdogan has tailored for him. He might not indicate this openly, but he is clearly annoyed by the opposition's continuous (and accurate) reference to him as Erdogan's “office manager”, while the seat of the premiership remains for all intents and purposes “vacant”. True, the president is constitutionally entitled to preside over a cabinet meeting if need be. But before the Erdogan presidency this had only occurred six times in the three decades since the constitution was promulgated in 1982. But Erdogan, who is determined to fulfil his dream of transforming the system of government from a parliamentary to a presidential one, has summoned full cabinet meetings three times in less than seven months. The explanation for this is simple. He wants to remind the person he chose to take his place as prime minister, after becoming president, that the new prime minister's job is hanging on a thread and that thread lies in Erdogan's hands. While presiding over these meetings, he lashes out at his ministers for being slow in setting the gears in motion for making the shift to the American system of government. This, of course, is intended as a slight against Davutoglu, who has made it clear that he is no longer enthusiastic about the change, now that he is titular head of the cabinet. Because of his awkward position, he cannot openly oppose the president, but his support for the change has been lukewarm at best. The presidential system is one of the modes of democratic government, he has said, while refraining from delving into the details as to how to bring such a system about in Turkey, long governed by the parliamentary system. This was not the first time that tensions have surfaced between the Turkish president and prime minister in the last seven months. Just two weeks ago, Erdogan refused to accept the resignation of Hakan Fidan, head of the National Intelligence Organisation (NIO), so that he could field himself in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Davutoglu had approved and even accepted the resignation. But in the face of pressure from Erdogan, who had raised Fidan to the pinnacle of the NIO, and who had so much trust and confidence in his spy chief that he would have no one else, Fidan buckled and abandoned his parliamentary aspirations. This caused no small amount of embarrassment for Davutoglu, who had to issue a new edict reappointing Fidan to his former post. That incident must have aggravated a nagging rancour and confirmed Davutoglu's resolve on a course of action that will ultimately enable him to emerge from under the thumb of his mentor and commander, which, if that were to happen, would constitute a coup in the fullest sense of the term. As though to confirm the new trend, other rivals to Erdogan from within the ranks of what we might term the JDP old guard have joined the confrontation. Foremost among these is JDP and government strongman Bülent Arinc. As Turkish Kurds marked the annual celebration of Newroz, Deputy Prime Minister Arinc departed from custom and issued a statement that was harshly critical of Erdogan: the president's remarks regarding his disapproval of government plans to form a follow-through committee to monitor the process of a settlement to the Kurdish question “express solely his personal opinion,” Arinc said. He added that responsibility for the process falls on the government alone. Arinc continued: Erdogan's criticism not only risked weakening the government but also damaging the prestige of the presidency. Interestingly, the television networks close to the JDP seemed to make a point of reiterating Arinc's criticisms at the head of their news bulletins, as though to express their mounting anger and frustration at Erdogan's notorious interventions in the press. Although Erdogan, when he was prime minister, took it upon himself to negotiate indirectly with Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the secessionist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and despite the fact that the points for a roadmap recently announced by Öcalan had probably already received his blessing at least in general, it now appears that Erdogan has had a change of heart. On board his presidential plane, on his way to Istanbul from Ukraine on Friday, he issued a statement declaring his disapproval of the creation of a follow-through committee and a visit by ten to 15 individuals (chosen by the government) to Imrali, the island prison in the Sea of Marmara where Abdullah Öcalan is serving a life sentence. This would be a disastrous step because it would confer legitimacy on the separatist leader, Erdogan now says. He also stressed that it was not right to hold a meeting and then for the deputy prime minister and members of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (PDP) to read out a statement to the public from Dolmabahçe Palace. Erdogan was referring to the abovementioned ten-point peace plan unveiled by the cabinet and PDP parliamentary representatives two weeks ago. Naturally, Erdogan's changing tunes are pure posturing. He knows that his party's popularity is dwindling and that if the trend continues it will not be able to secure a majority in the next parliament. Without that majority, the constitution cannot be amended to provide for a presidential system and his dream of securing absolute rule will elude his grasp. This is why he is now playing up to the rising tide of Turkish ultra-nationalists, known for their hostility to the Kurds, and backtracking on his former pledges. He hopes to win back votes that recent opinion polls indicate have shifted to the opposition parties. But what appears to have escaped Erdogan is that his party has already begun to fissure. His recent remarks have only worked to widen the breach in what he once depicted as the indestructible JDP citadel.
