The crisis in Yemen will not end until the country's political factions come up with a unified answer to the recent power grab by the Houthis. If they cannot challenge the constitutional declaration the Houthis have come up with, then they should agree to the roadmap that Abdel Malek Al-Houthi suggested, and keep putting pressure on his movement until it hands over power to a democratic government. The current discord in Yemen is not just a symptom of the political ambitions of the Zaydi Shia movement, or the machinations of its ally, former president Ali Abdallah Saleh. Indecision by other political factions blocked the agreement on a presidential council, giving the Houthis the excuse they needed to grab power. Yemen is now at a crossroads that could lead to civil war, and perhaps partition. The UN emissary to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, described the situation in Yemen as perilous, saying that rival groups are either blocking negotiated deals or using force to impose their policies. Continued division in north Yemen between a majority that rejects the constitutional declaration and a minority that supports it is already taking its toll on the country. In the south, Hirak Movement leaders are reviving their plans for secession, which they entertained for many years before the Houthi coup. The governorates of Taiz and Ibb in the southwest have both declared an insurgency, and refuse to take any further orders from Sanaa as long as the Houthis are in control. The Marib tribes, for their part, warn that the constitutional declaration could lead to civil war. The Houthis may enjoy the military upper hand for the moment, thanks to Iranian help, but the situation in impoverished Yemen remains fluid. It is inconceivable that a Zaydi Shia tribe will be able in the long run to subdue the Sunni majority. Yemen is a country where most tribes are armed to the teeth and can mobilise on short notice. Current rivalries may also give opportunity to regional jihadists, such as the Islamic State (IS) group, to send fighters into the country on the pretext of repulsing the Shia, a tactic that the group has already used in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Houthis are using the failure to form a presidential council as an excuse to seize power. Their ultimate aim is to control the army and subdue their opponents in Marib and other governorates. They have already used Brigade 139 of the army to take control of Bayda in central Yemen, which they may use as a springboard to march on the southern governorates opposing their rule. Interestingly, the Houthis are still acting on the pretence that they are saviours of the country, not usurpers of power. They continue to attend talks, make proposals and push for a semblance of organised government, but their violent methods belie their reconciliatory rhetoric. Although most Yemeni parties have rejected both the Houthis' control of the capital and the constitutional declaration they recently proposed, the Shia group is acting as if everything is in order. It continues to pretend that the constitutional declaration offers a way out of the crisis, but is also tightening its hold on the army and police in anticipation of further fighting. The Yemeni opposition greeted the Houthis' coup with protests in major cities, and also with attempts to rally southern and eastern tribes for a possible military confrontation. So far, 12 political parties and groups in Yemen have declared their opposition to the constitutional declaration, while three parties and six human rights and legal groups said that it could end the impasse. The international community generally oppose the Houthis' power grab, and few in the region — with the exception of Iran — condone the recent actions by the Shia group. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) denounced what it termed a “coup” against legitimacy and a threat to the stability of Yemen and the region. The UN Security Council, for its part, called on the Houthis to return to the negotiation table and implement the Gulf initiative and decisions of the national dialogue conference. The US, UK, France and the EU have all closed their diplomatic missions in Yemen, a country in which half the population lives under the poverty line. According to the World Bank, Yemen lost $7 billion between 2012 and 2014 because of the disruption of oil and gas pipelines and electricity networks. Egypt and Gulf countries are concerned about the safety of navigation in Bab Al-Mandeb. Cairo has communicated its concern to various groups in Yemen, indicating that it will not tolerate any interference with the vital waterway. Yemen is hurtling down a perilous path. Unless the Houthis and their rivals come to a swift agreement, the consequences for Yemen's unity and regional stability will be considerable.
