Ethiopia opened its embassy in the Somali capital Mogadishu with aplomb, writes Gamal Nkrumah It is very early days, but Ethiopian officials claim that the first signs that their Somali policy has paid off are there for all to see. Amid much pomp and ceremony, Ethiopia re- opened its embassy in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Sunday. This was the first time that an official Ethiopian diplomatic representation has been established in the Somali capital since the two countries fought a war 30 years ago. It is an unprecedented feat, and it gave a remarkable coup de grace to the crumbling edifice of Ethiopian military might in Somalia. Since things, especially the security situation, have slowly got better in Somalia, the Ethiopians have plenty to celebrate. Be that as it may, the presence in Mogadishu of Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin amid strict security measures was replete with symbolism. The event was spun by both the Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia as a historic occasion. Much to the chagrin of the opposition Somali Council of Islamic Courts' (CICs) sympathisers, the Somali President Abdullah Youssef and Prime Minister Mohamed Gedi officiated at the opening ceremony. To predict long-term success for the Ethiopians would be extremely rash, however. The internecine fighting and bloodshed in and around the Somali capital continues unabated. Nevertheless, Mesfin did make a point about the real meaning of his attendance at the official opening ceremony in the Somali capital. "My presence in Mogadishu is proof that everything is under control," he told reporters in Mogadishu. The Ethiopians claim to see an improvement on the streets of Mogadishu already. Ethiopia's policy is more ambitious -- Addis Ababa aims to dominate the entire Horn of Africa. The first malignant effect is that the estimated 3,000 strong Ethiopian forces stationed in Somalia have moved out of their well-defended positions into local outposts run jointly with Somali government troops. Sputtering violence is an ever-present danger both in Ethiopia and Somalia. The Ethiopians are determined to stave off an Islamist insurgency in Somalia. The constant threat of an Iraqi-style guerrilla war looms large. This week, an explosive device went off at a police station in the Huriwaa district of the Somali capital injuring many policemen and innocent bystanders. Another explosion near an Ethiopian army base was also detonated. The Ethiopians and the TFG have stumbled into a good-cop, bad-cop scenario, the Ethiopians being the good-cops. Scores of CIC leaders have fled to Eritrea and Yemen from where they direct their fight against the Ethiopians and those they view as their Somali lackeys. Among them is the former parliament speaker and several high-profile cabinet ministers of the TFG. The biggest albatross around Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zennawi's neck is his own restive ethnic Somali minority within the borders of Ethiopia itself. Containing such a formidable force is no easy task. Indeed, last week a blast killed 11 people and wounded the local leader of the ethnic Somali region of Ethiopia bordering Somalia. The Ethiopian government pointed an accusing finger at the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). "ONLF leaders responsible for the death of civilians and the destruction of property are to be considered terrorists under international law," explained Ethiopian government spokesman Nour Abdi Mohamed. "The governments in Britain and the United States where these regional [Somali] government terrorist leaders are living, must arrest them and hand them over to the Ethiopian government," he added. Perhaps the biggest snag as far as the Ethiopians are concerned is that many Mogadishu residents sympathise with the CICs. Nobody can say that the Ethiopians have had an easy time in Somalia. The warlords' sway has waned, but the violence they spawn is palpable still. Exiled Somali militant Islamists and ONLF leaders in Eritrea are in touch with several of the traditional clan leaders and warlords. They are determined to foment trouble for the Ethiopians and the TFG. Beginning to play a crucial role is the Eritrean government, the arch-enemy of the Ethiopians. Eritrea has emerged as the main backer of the ONLF and the CICs. The West has been supportive of both the TFG and the Ethiopians. Western powers have actively intervened on behalf of the Ethiopians and the TFG to contain the threat of the CICs. Indeed, one step the Ethiopians have taken has been to rationalise the war against the CICs as part of the global war against terror. The task has become pressing as the militant Islamist forces have gone into hiding.
