Happy birthday former president?

As the ousted Mubarak celebrates his 84th birthday in a hospital under custody, sources indicate that he may not be convicted of all the charges against him

“Anxious but his health is alright,” is the brief phrase used by those who follow developments surrounding ousted president Hosni Mubarak.
The man who ruled Egypt for close to three decades before being forced to step down on 11 February last year is currently anticipating the big day, 2 June, when a court of law will issue its verdict on a set of charges that he is facing, including complicity in the killing of demonstrators during the early days of the January 25 revolution.
Mubarak, according to one informed legal source, has been "largely reassured" by his lawyer that he should expect “some good news.”
“A court of law issues a verdict on the basis of evidence, not on the basis of the political mood; the evidence available is not sufficient, as we can see, to produce a valid conviction of the ousted president on most of the charges he is facing,” the source said.
He added that the ousted president, who will celebrate his 84th birthday today with his spouse, in-laws and grandchildren, might be convicted of some of the charges – especially in relation to gas exports to Israel - but that the sentence would be limited in terms of the length of imprisonment, possibly five years.
“And of course it would be subject to an easy appeal,” he added.
The humble and solemn birthday celebrations that will mark the day this year would have been unthinkable in the past. Under Mubarak, who took office with the support of a public referendum following the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981, 4 May was turned into a day of exaggerated media celebration during the course of his ascent from vice president in 1975 to president, six years later.
Today it is not just a very humble birthday celebration; it is also the declining legacy of a man who positioned himself as a war hero and a leader of peace.
Today, Egyptian press has only one reference to make to Mubarak - the “ousted president.” And gone are the days when the leading newspapers would announce on 4 May: "Egypt was reborn when you were born."
Both Mubarak and Khairat El-Shater, the strong-man of the Muslim Brotherhood who was nominated for but expelled from the presidential race, were born on 4 May.
Mubarak himself is remembered with much anger by many Egyptians – even those who lament the end of his rule for reasons related to economic stagnation and poor security.
“This situation is all his fault; if he was not so greedy he would have assigned a vice president that people would have accepted and things would have gone on,” said Adel, a bus driver with a public company. "But Mubarak wanted his son to be president," he added.
Speaking as he drove through the tough Abbasiya traffic, Adel blamed nobody but Mubarak for what he qualifies as "the havoc" that the country is now going through. "It is he who is responsible for this," he stated firmly.
In the analysis of Adel it is Mubarak's fault that corruption and discrimination reached such high levels that a revolution against the regime became inevitable. The rise of the "mad Salafists" is also Mubarak's fault – even "his doing."
And the current dominance of the political Islamic groups is also Mubarak's fault, according to this driver, who voted for the Muslim Brotherhood's political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, during the parliamentary elections late last year.
"When I voted I chose those who were very vocal in opposing Mubarak but it turned out that they too, like the [former ruling] National Democratic Party, are not working in the interests of the people," said Adel, dismayed by the performance of the FJP in parliament.
For some, however, Mubarak "will be done justice one day."
"He was not a good president. Yes, there were huge mistakes during his rule; but when he was president people were safe and if you stayed away from politics you could get by in your life with no problem," said Rehab, a banker.
For this well-off lady, the fact that the levels of poverty had skyrocketed during the Mubarak years and that the capacity of public services, including crucial sectors like health and education, had declined dramatically, were not what came to mind when she thought of Mubarak.
"I think people remember the times of Mubarak today with stability. This is why so many people were happy when Omar Suleiman was about to nominate himself," Rehab argued.
The short-lived presidential nomination of Suleiman, Mubarak's only vice president, who was given the post following the start of the revolution, was a shock to many political forces.
Suleiman did not manage to run in the race due to legal mistakes in his paperwork. "But had he run, I would have voted for him and many, many people I know would have voted for him because if we have to choose between the Mubarak style of rule and someone like Hazem Abu-Ismail [an expelled Salafist candidate] or El-Shater or [former member of the Muslim Brotherhood] Abul-Fotouh we would certainly vote for Mubarak himself," argued Rehab.
Today, Rehab said she would "certainly vote for [Ahmed] Shafiq," Mubarak's last prime minister, who publicly announced that he looks at the ousted president as “a role model.”
Most independent polls give Shafiq no more than 6 percent of the votes.