For over four months now, Greece's debts have been sending waves of shock worldwide. The problems in Greece have persisted to hit investor confidence all over the globe. Although the Mediterranean country was thrown a safety net worth 110 billion euros ($140 billion) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) earlier this month, global market volatility and currency fluctuations have grimmed the picture, economists say. But the situation may be "a bit sunnier in Egypt", which boasts strong trade links and huge joint investment, analysts argue, citing that Egypt is Greece's first Arab and African trade partner. Trade between the two countries totalled 428 million euros in 2009, according to official figures. The balance of trade is in Egypt's favour. The North African country's exports to Greece stood at 299 million euros, while its imports hit 129 million euros, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Greek investments in Egypt exceed LE1 billion ($180 million) in 90 companies covering various economic sectors, i.e. tourism, construction, agriculture, food industries, finance, and telecommunications and information technology, according to the Ministry of Investment. "Greek banks in Egypt are financially stable. So the impacts won't be significant here. Foreign exchange will be unlikely affected given Egypt's flexible monetary policies and well watched basket of currencies," said Mohamed el-Naggar, an economist. "Yes, there will be limited currency fluctuations in the short term, but the market turn to back to normal anyway," el-Naggar said. Greece has approved major austerity cuts in exchange of the EU and IMF aid packages that have angered labour unions and sparked general strikes and street protests. The austerity measures planned by the government would reduce a public deficit that reached some 14 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year to below the EU-mandated three per cent limit by 2014. Despite this grim picture in Greece, the impacts here are seen of trivial importance. The Greek crisis won't "spill over here", according to economist Hassan Abdel Fadil, who downplays any direct impacts. "The Egyptian economy has proved to be resilient so far in the face of the global downturn. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Greek problems can affect the economy here. "Egypt has managed to withstand the impacts of global recession that undermined many leading world economies. It has been least affected compared to mature economies and many other emerging ones. The fact that there were no Egyptian investments in collapsed US banks has rendered it some kind of immunity to the fallout," Abdel Fadil explained. "But in the worst scenario, the euro might be hardly hit, creating market instability worldwide especially within the EU. The Greek banking system is poised to take a blow. There could be other EU countries such as Spain, Ireland and even Germany due to fallout spillover," Abdel Fadil argued. Given high debts and widening deficits, economists warn that Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain are vulnerable to economic collapse. But comparisons between Greece on the one hand and Spain and Portugal on the other "do not reflect reality", according to Angel Gurria, Secretary General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). "Spain has a debt-to-GDP ratio about half that of Greece more or less, so obviously (it is) a completely different situation. Spain had four or five years of surpluses before the crisis," Gurria was quoted as saying early this month. Greece's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio is 115.1 per cent, compared to just 53.2 per cent in Spain. "The European Central Bank won't let any banking system in the eurozone region to collapse. Besides, Greek banks are financially strong," said Hamdy Abdel Azim, an Egyptian financial expert. But Abdel Azim admits "limited impacts in the short term", expecting investments to decline in Egypt in the coming two years. "Demand for Egyptian exports will take a blow as well. But there won't be any dire consequences,” he said. Some economists have warned the austerity measures will plunge Greece into an even worse recession and stifle growth but many argue the reforms being enacted ��" like the overhaul of the pension system ��" are long overdue. Greece's EU-IMF aid has sparked a collapse in confidence in weaker eurozone economies among investors and forced EU leaders to agree last week to make a bailout fund of nearly $1 trillion available for crisis-hit countries. "The Egyptian economy is strong and can weather the crisis. All banks operating in Egypt have been shielded from the sub-prime mortgage. They all work under the umbrella of Law 88/3003. Piraeus Bank Egypt is an Egyptian joint-stock company according to this law and has nothing to do with Greece's debt problems," Nayera Amin, the Managing Director and CEO of Piraeus Bank Egypt, said. "Piraeus Bank Group is in a very good position. Despite the crisis, Piraeus Bank Egypt has got a loan of 25 million euros to boost its operations here," she added.
