Nothing is more important for Egypt than the Nile. When the seven Nile Basin countries – Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and DR Congo – decided to create their own commission for Nile without the participation of Egypt and Sudan, they violated international laws. These consider the international river one entity; no projects should be built to change its nature or the quantity of water without the prior agreement of all countries. The 1929 agreement between Egypt and Britain gave Egypt a veto power to refuse any projects on the Nile Basin countries that might affect its historically accessible amount. The agreement of 1959 between Egypt and Sudan did not affect the amount of water that Ethiopia uses. In the 1960s, the Organisation of African Union declared the principle that newly independent states should abide by agreements of the colonial era to avoid disputes between African countries. Yet, due to many factors, the most important of which is the mismanagement of African relations, Egypt faces a life-or-death battle. This does not mean sending our Army to fight in Nile Basin countries. But what it does mean is that a comprehensive strategy is desperately needed to contain the situation, so that the rights of Egypt and Sudan would be preserved. In defining the enemy, we find that the seven African countries and their people are not enemies. Our enemies, in this instance, are Israel and Iran and a few corrupt decision-making elites there that co-operate with them in order to block Egyptian and Sudanese relations and co-operation with the other Nile Basin countries. The people there appreciate the services provided by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry's African Co-operation Fund. These corrupt elites were behind some internal policies, which have affected stability in these countries and they even instigated some opposition to form military resistance groups against regimes there, such as the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda. Atrocities against the Eritrean people by previous Ethiopian regimes led to the separation and independence of Eritrea. The demographic distribution in these countries is not homogenous; for example, Ethiopia contains different races and religions. Thirty-seven per cent of Ethiopians are Muslims but there is preferential selection for high posts. The Coptic Church in Egypt has good relations with the Ethiopian Church, but Al-Azhar, the Muslim world's influential institution, should have a role there and in other Nile Basin countries. As both Iran and Israel are present there, without apparent clashes between them over domination, this implies that there is co-ordination in Africa between the Jewish and the Persian states. Each of them sends arms to some groups to use them against governments there, while the corrupt elites just benefit from the whole process. However, this does not mean sending arms to the Nile Basin countries to obtain factions loyal to Egypt, even if we can easily do this. It means opening dialogue with these factions to reach reconciliation between these armed groups and the regimes there to secure stability, so that our projects there would yield benefits for people of the Nile Basin countries. The Gulf Arabs invest there, and it is time for them to select the projects in co-ordination with Egypt and Sudan. They fear irresponsible Iranian actions that affect their stability. The UAE Foreign Minister said that there is no difference between Iran occupying Emirate islands and Israel occupying Palestine, the Golan Heights and Sheba Farms. Is there a difference between Israel and Iran in affecting the Nile security? China is the main constructor in the Nile Basin and within the framework of Chinese-Egyptian relations, their projects should be discussed and co-ordinated. We have experts, academics and scientists specialised in African affairs and water regulation, and they should have the upper say in formulating Egypt's strategy there. Israel should know that Nile security is more important to Egypt than the peace treaty. The visit of the Iranian President to Uganda few days after the failure of the conference of the Nile Basin countries in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, to reach a consensus about Nile co-operation between the Nile Basin countries, is a clear message. Iran should know that Egypt could respond to its hostilities in the Nile Basin. It is a matter of security rather than military. Therefore, while keeping the military option as a last resort, our strategy should be built on the carrot-and-the-stick policy.
