CAIRO - On Sunday, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) marked this year's World Food Day, casting light on Somalia's hunger and sounding the alarm bell for countries around the world to take action. Although this year's theme, "Food Prices from Crisis to Stability", has sent a message of relief to many developing countries, the situation in Egypt might turn critical in the coming years if "adequate precautions are not taken”, one analyst said. The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly price changes for a food basket with cereals, oil seeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 225 points in September, 4.5 points down from August due to lower grain, sugar and cooking oils prices. "The food gap can be seen as Egypt's most dangerous threat in the coming years. If not addressed properly, it will have a negative impact on the country's balance of payments, the State budget and foreign exchange," Samir Ezzat, a macro.economic analyst at the Cairo-based Economic Research Centre, told The Egyptian Gazette in an interview. In 2010, the most populous Arab country of 80 million, consumed 17.9 million tonnes of wheat, nearly half of which was imported, according to the Ministry of Trade. "Egypt imports annually around 60 per cent of its food. This creates chronic pressure, weakening the currency and balance of trade with the world. If post-January 25 revolution governments do not tackle this nagging problem, future generations will pay a high price," Ezzat said. In a country, where roughly 40 per cent of its 84 million population, live on less than $2 a day, according to World Bank data, subsidised bread is a must to maintain social peace. Subsidised bread takes around LE10 billion out of the country's annual budget. The bread sells for LE0.05 per loaf, while it costs the State LE0.25, according to data released by the Ministry of Solidarity and Social Justice. Wheat consumption in Egypt stands at around 84kg per capita, according to the State-run Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). "In the 1960s, when Egypt's population stood at around 30 million, it was 80 per cent self-sufficient. This grain gap must be bridged as soon as possible. Nations are willing to wage wars for the sake of food. It is part of human nature," he explained. The situation for other food items is nearly the same. Beef, for instance, constitutes another dilemma for the majority of Egyptians with low-bracket incomes. Egypt produces 500,000 tonnes of baladi (locally-bred beef) meat annually, accounting for 60 per cent of consumption, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. To bridge the gap, roughly around 300,000 tonnes of meat are imported annually, according to official figures. "There must be a national charter to turn Egypt into a self-sufficient country for most food items. Wheat must be at the top of the list. The Government should turn to its southern neighbours in the Nile basin, where grain could be grown and cattle raised," he said, adding that the momentum of the January revolution "may help boost economic cooperation". The picture seems bright in the short term; the FAO has raised the 2011 cereal output estimate to 2.31 billion tonnes, 3 million tonnes above its previous figure; driven by a 4.6 per cent annual rise in global wheat production to 685.2 million tonnes on the back of better crops in Europe and Asia. But Egypt's output has been declining. In 2010, the country's production of wheat, rice, vegetables and fruit fell by 15.8, 21.6, 8.6 and 4.5 per cent respectively, according to CAPMAS. "It is all about the long term. Egypt must make its way towards bridging the widening gap as the population grows," Ezzat added. The United Nations forecasts Egypt's population to reach 100 million by 2020. By 2050, the population is expected to reach 140-155 million, according to the country's Supreme Council for Urban Planning and Development.
