BERIUT – Two years have been passed since the controversial presidential elections in Iran. The challenges that confronted the President then are not an issue any longer. Today, his supporters are upset with him and MPs are threatening to question him about his controversial behaviour. But what is of real concern is his attitude towards the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Is Ahmadinejad aware of all the challenges and is he prepared for them? President Ahmadinejad has tried to raise the cultural tone of Iran, for example by bringing the ancient Korosh Charter of Human Rights from the British Museum in London to Tehran Museum. He has also put huge business opportunities in the way of the Revolutionary Guard, who might save him on a rainy day – and the political weather forecast does indeed suggest that heavy showers are on the way! According to the constitution, the Supreme Leader is the Commander in Chief of the Army and indeed all the armed forces. The President is unable to interfere in this and it's obvious that the armed forces' commanders are close to the Supreme Leader. Some believe that today the IRGC is divided into three: Mir Husain Mousavi's supporters, war veterans from the time he was Prime Minister; those who support the Supreme Leader; and those who are close to President Ahmadinejad. We shouldn't forget that Ahmadinejad and most of his close circle of advisers have an IRGC background. Many of them served during the Iraq-Iran War and were prisoners of war. To ensure their loyalty, the President has given them a lot of great business opportunities. Today, the IRGC controls most of the oil and gas fields, thanks to the sanctions and lack of foreign investors. These fields are very lucrative. Today, all the senior conservative clerics blame Rahim Mashaie for misleading the President and his Government. They would like Ahmadinejad to be powerless and on his own before his term ends. Ahmadinejad is determined to keep Mashaie in office, not because he's the President's wizard, but for another reason. The Iranian President is an engineer with a sharp intellect, which he tries to hide behind his working-class appearance and the slang he uses to address the people. He well knows that, once he lets his close allies leave, the end will be night. Even if he was dismissed by Parliament, people would say he'd been eliminated because he'd challenged the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei and this is precisely what the system wants to avoid. The continuation of the Velayat Fagheh (‘Guardianship of the Jurist') is good business for the clerics in Iran, guaranteeing their political role and the comfortable life they lead. Without a supreme leader, the role of the clerics in politics and many other matters would be minimised. Iran's constitution is the basis for the Velayat Fagheh and, once this Constitution is changed in the people's favour, allowing them to regain their power, the elected President would be in charge of everything and the country would have real democracy. For this very simple reason, the religious leaders would do anything to remain in power. For the smart conservative clerics, the parliamentary elections are more important than the next presidential elections. If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were to pass away during the next Parliament and the majority didn't support the radical conservatives, they might be able to change the Constitution and put end to the supreme leadership. The goal of the clerics is to disconnect Ahmadinejad and his people from Khamenei, cutting the support from the Supreme Leader in order to help them win the next parliamentary elections. The clerics' real enemy is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the rest is excuses. It's too early for them to open a direct front against him, but what we are seeing and hearing is a kind of preparation for a direct attack. Last year, during the ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the revolution, held at his tomb, his grandson hadn't finish his talk before a bunch of paid agitators started making noises. This year, the same group made noises against Ahmadinejad. But, unlike Hassan Khomeini, the Iranian President wouldn't stop talking into the microphone. From the podium, President Ahmadinejad pointed to a guy in the crowd and calmly told him his turn would come soon! What he meant was that, one day, he and his people would be mocked and booed by the people. I guess that he's mustered all his courage to fight the radicals. June 12 was the anniversary of the disputed presidential elections. But, two years on, the Supreme Leader and his authority and legitimacy are under question, not the President's. If Ahmadinejad and his people can survive until the parliamentary elections, then there are more surprises yet to come. Entekhabifard is an Iranian journalist, who regularly contributes to The Egyptian Gazette and its weekly edition, the Mail.
