CAIRO - Many of this country's intellectuals, artists and strategic planners will remember 2010 with pain. It is the year that has seen the downfall of many of Egypt's political powers, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the country's legal political parties, and the emergence of the ruling National Democratic Party as the uncontested player on Egypt's political arena. The year has also witnessed more weakening in Egypt's regional importance as other regional power houses have started to dominate the political scene in the turbulent region, including the tiny Gulf Emirate of Qatar. To many of these intellectuals, 2010 forms the basis for what might happen in 2011. They say the next year will be full of major events. Sherif Hafez, a political analyst, says 2011 will see a lot, both at the international and external levels. “We have presidential elections in 2011 and a referendum in Sudan, while lots of things are expected to happen on the Palestinian-Israeli front,” Hafez adds. Hafez says he does not expect the incumbent Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to run for President next year. “I have a strong impression that somebody somewhere in the Government is getting ready to run for President,” Hafez explains. “Mubarak has done a lot for Egypt already.” This has been a highly contentious issue in Egypt for a long time now. Mubarak, who has ruled since 1981, has yet to say he will run for a sixth term in office in 2011. Ruling party officials, however, say Mubarak will be the party's candidate for the presidency in 2011, if he does not mind. Hafez points at the Minister of Civil Ahmed Shafiq as a possible successor to Mubarak if he decides not to run for president again. He says Shafiq was a successful Air Force officer and is a minister who has done a lot to build a credible reputation. Apart from this, Hafez expects the referendum that will take place in Sudan on January 9 to open the way for more secessions in the African country. He says Sudan could break up into more than just two countries because the country, which used to be considered Egypt's backyard, is full of problems. “The referendum in Sudan could result in another civil war between the North and the South,” Hafez warns. “The northerners will not accept their country breaking up like this.” He even expects 2011 to be a fertile time for terrorists and terrorist attacks in the Middle East. “Fanned by their dissatisfaction about the political situation in the region, the terrorists might hit everywhere,” he told the Egyptian Mail. Essam Abdullah, a leading professor of philosophy at Ain Shams University in Cairo, likes to buck this pessimistic trend of Hafez. He looks at 2010 and expects 2011 to be a good year. “I expect the New Year to bring with it more freedom of speech for the people of this country,” Abdullah says. “This will be particularly so when women are given more space for political participation.” Freedom of speech has become an intrinsic part of the life of Egyptians. Tens of newspapers and magazines take on the strongest people in the Government without any fear. The guests on tens of TV talk shows do the same and break old political taboos from time to time. Abdullah adds that the WikiLeaks will introduce a new form of investigative media for readers across the globe, one that will not be stopped by the strongest of governments. “Ordinary people will be heard even more by people in power,” Abdullah stresses. “In Egypt, for example, there is an accumulated experience of self-expression. People will build on this experience in the New Year.” Bishop Soleib Matta hates the idea of predicting what might happen in the future. He says God can do whatever he wants to the world. Despite this, he has hopes that peace will prevail and the anarchy that has come to haunt several parts of the world will come to an end. "If people live in peace, this will of course reflect positively on development and the level of welfare everybody enjoys,” Bishop Mata adds. “Stability can give Egyptians the time they need to fix their problems and take steps forward.” He notes that this stability would also give Egyptians the chance to fight social ailments like corruption, poverty and crime. Asser Yasser, a social activist, disagrees. She believes that the incidents of 2010 are conducive to bad things in the New Year. “Everything makes me pessimistic in fact,” Yasser, who recently organised a march against the rampant sexual harassment in Egypt, says. “All indicators lead me to this conclusion.” Yasser looks with discomfort at news reports about the recent parliamentary elections, which gave the ruling National Democratic Party uncontested control over the Lower House of the Egyptian Parliament. She says the elections were “depressing” and against all expectations. “What made these elections even more disappointing was that the people really needed something to make them happy,” Yasser explains. “I am sure that NDP parliamentary domination is the last thing that can make the majority in this country happy.” She expects the pace of social anger in Egypt to accelerate during the New Year, but does not believe that what she calls a ‘Revolution of Hunger' is imminent or coming soon. Yasser says sectarian violence is the thing that could destabilise Egyptian society. “This sectarian tension is very dangerous,” Yasser says. “It could divide our society into two fighting countries.” She says women are gaining more political power in Egypt and that they are up to playing a bigger role on Egypt's political stage. She adds that she is not certain about the effect the quota system will have on the political emancipation of the women of the nation, but feels happy that the Government has at last realised the importance of the presence of women in the legislature. Months ago, the Government decided to allocate a certain number of seats in Parliament for women, in order to increase the representation of women in decision-making circles. “This is very important by the way,” Yasser says. “To specify seats in Parliament for women means that women will be represented in Parliament, increasing their political importance.” Moussa Moustafa Moussa, the Chairman of the divided Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party, points to the need for political reform in Egypt. He says the recent parliamentary elections should have given political activists in this country many lessons. “Several shameful things happened during the elections,” Moussa explains. “These shameful things make the need for political reform more urgent.” He told this newspaper that political change would help change the whole of Egyptian society, adding that this political change will even inspire the necessary changes in education in ways that transform the society. “This is the thing,” Moussa argues. “This political change will be the clue to changing everything else in this country.” Leading scriptwriter Ali Salem agrees with Moussa that political change can function as a transformational power in Egyptian society. Despite this, he says 2011 will not be so different from 2010. "Nothing new will happen,” Salem believes. “The world changes in mysterious ways that make ‘change-aspirants' like myself despair at the slow pace of everything.”
