Without a sincere and effective mechanism to solve the tribal and territorial differences between the Sudanese Northerners and Southerners, the January 9 referendum will bring about disastrous results, the least tragic of which will be the breakaway of the southern part. Since the early 19th century, southern areas in Sudan have been stained with blood during tragic conflicts over territorial sovereignty and pastures between herdsmen and crop growers of Arab and African origins. To launch the referendum without settling these perennial differences will unavoidably renew bloody clashes and civil wars, which have reportedly claimed the lives of more than two million Sudanese people since 1983. In the meantime, only a neutral commission under the umbrella of no other than the United Nations will guarantee the integrity and transparency of the results of the forthcoming referendum on the one hand and the honest implementation of its results and obligations on the other hand. Such an unbiased commission will also guarantee that the existing differences, associated with pastures and territorial sovereignty, will be settled sooner or later at the negotiating table, irrespective of whether the results of the referendum will be in favour of the unity of Sudan or the breakaway campaign by southern officials. Within this context, a proposal submitted by Egypt to persuade Sudan's north and south to form a confederation should be considered wisely. The confederation option was recently announced by Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit, who explained that Sudan's north and south could be two countries sharing one army. Addressing a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Shura Council (the Upper House of the Egyptian Parliament), Abul- Gheit added that the two parts of Sudan could open two embassies. Sudanese people, whether in the north or south, should appreciate the reality of witnessing a watershed in the history of their nation. Any mistaken or visceral move will bring Sudan back to square one – catastrophic civil wars, in which no other than the entire Sudanese nation will be the loser.
