Sudanese politicians should be wary of dancing on Garang's grave, warns Gamal Nkrumah The scent of war is in the air. Tribal chieftains of the Arabised Messeriya nomads of oil-rich Abyei ominously look on in disdain as they contemplate a future without the rich pastureland their cattle have traditionally roamed freely since time immemorial. Moreover, they are now concerned with how they'll share the oil wealth of the enclave sandwiched between northern and southern Sudan. The Abyei conundrum is a microcosm of the wider Sudanese challenge. The Messeriya chieftains met with leaders of the Dinka Ngok tribe in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa this week to iron out differences. Southern Sudanese maidens have been entertaining a host of foreign and local dignitaries with their dances, their bare feet stamping the rich red earth of southern Sudan, their anklets resonating with jingling and joyous sounds, their melodious voices sonorous. Closely watching the boisterous parade were sombre politicians grinning for the cameras, some charlatans, others downright sinister. Yet those who seriously uphold the political mantle of the late John Garang, first leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), are overly enthusiastic and sincere in their conviction that the unity of Sudan is paramount if the country is to prosper and flourish. Garang was a frequent visitor to Egypt, much respected among Egypt's political establishment. His notion of Sudanese unity was highly credited in Cairo. President Hosni Mubarak, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and other senior Egyptian officials have reminded their Sudanese counterparts of the wisdom and farsightedness of Garang's line. The case for this optimism for unity is not clear-cut. The dissenters who cast a long shadow of doubt on Garang's dreams believe that an independent southern Sudan is the answer to the region's multifaceted challenges. The objection is not that this approach of unity, as opposed to secession, leads to the wrong answers being arrived at for their people's problems. Rather that it will take too long to arrive at a solution to the historical divide between northerners and southerners, a struggle for survival in which the southerners have repeatedly lost -- in cultural, economic, political and social terms. Any solution to the southern Sudanese political impasse created with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005 by Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLM will require radical concessions on both sides. Yet most of the touted alternatives would involve compromises that the southerners are no longer willing to contemplate. Former Sudanese foreign minister and leader of the breakaway SPLM for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol met with SPLM leader and Sudanese First Vice-President Salva Kiir this week to resolve outstanding political differences and to ensure that Al-Bashir's NCP watchdog does not continue to play prosecutor, judge and jury. Kiir launched the much vaunted Doing Business (DB) project which is supported by the World Bank-managed Multi-Donor Trust (MDTF) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Intense economic interests spur the current flurry of diplomatic activity by foreign powers closely watching political developments in Sudan. They, too, are redrawing maps, demarcating the borders of north and south. The DB is an admirable objective as long as the vigour of southerners in Sudan is not impaired by gross foreign interference. Sudan, the third largest recipient of USAID after Afghanistan and Pakistan, is struggling to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity. And, the world -- not least Sudan's own African and Arab neighbours -- should be mindful of the different, often rival roles played by the political parties in the country. The voices in southern Sudan calling for secession have reached a deafening crescendo. Southern Sudanese independence is on the cards. If this happens the blame will in no small part be southern Sudan's. Juba should use its new political powers guaranteed by the CPA and its economic clout fuelled by its newfound oil wealth to foster Sudanese unity. The north, too, shoulders much of the blame. Its insistence on instituting Islamic Sharia law alienates the predominantly non-Muslim southerners. The followers of Garang are in the forefront of the debate over the future of Sudan. If Garang's vision prevails, and Sudan remains a single political entity at peace with itself, then he will be vindicated. The undeclared war between the southern Sudanese secessionists and those who advocate the Garang dream is fast descending into a collision course. The showdown could be a good thing for Sudan as long as it does not degenerate into a fratricidal and farcical bloodbath. The impending political contest as encapsulated in the referendum may force Sudanese politicians to address issues they have so far preferred to skirt. Kiir remains the most likely winner in next January's referendum, but a tighter race with some of his political rivals both within the rank and file of the SPLM and among rival parties will hopefully have to address the shortcomings of southern politicians head-on. The vitally important question of southern Sudanese secession deserves higher standards of debate than the Sudanese politicians have offered so far. The economy, the necessity for a faster pace of economic development and other commercial considerations will feature prominently in the months to come. Western powers and emerging Asian economies will vie for economic supremacy in southern Sudan. The US might be the largest donor for the moment, but Beijing interferes in Sudanese economic affairs on a far greater scale than any other country. Its actions have a tremendous impact on Sudan's economic fortunes and wellbeing. Economic development will lift millions out of poverty in Sudan, but civil war would most certainly not. How talk of unity and disunity brings out the worst in everyone Sudanese. A return of the civil war -- Africa's longest -- is imminent. The Sudanese people will be the greatest losers. In this respect it is no accident that Garang recommended unity as the way forward for Sudan. Those who do not share Garang's vision offer two cavils, one internal and the other external. The corruption that accompanies oil-producing El Dorados in Africa will benefit the ensconced northern political elite, with the tacit connivance of foreign multinationals, be they Chinese or Western. (see 'Managing Sudan's quagmire' & 'Saving Sudan')
