Sudanese political bigwigs give little away in remarks regarding January's referendum, writes Gamal Nkrumah Sudan's Second Vice-President Ali Othman Mohamed Taha has been one of the most visible figures in Sudanese politics for two decades. This week Taha has been incredulously candid and outspoken. Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir is uncharacteristically civil for the moment trying to keep a lid on political unease in the southern reaches of the country. This timely and pragmatic presidential restraint has a lot to be said for it. Khartoum's development strategies in southern Sudan, however well meaning, did not break the cycle of under- development in the vast, mineral rich albeit impoverished region. The southern Sudanese are understandably choleric because of this historical faux pas. Sudan's First Vice-President Salva Kiir, who also doubles as president of autonomous southern Sudan, offers fresh hope and an alternative way forward for the potentially prosperous region. Or so his people believe. This week, and in sharp contrast to Taha's tenacious trust in Khartoum, the Sudanese Second Vice-President Taha in an unprecedented outburst poured scorn on speculation that the referendum designed to determine whether southern Sudan is to secede or not can go ahead in time. He stressed that the referendum cannot go ahead smoothly without a comprehensive reconciliation between the political establishment of the national capital Khartoum and provincial politicians in the southern Sudanese administrative capital Juba. Kiir purports that Taha is in a weak position to lecture southern Sudanese on the prospects for political reform, democracy and development in the autonomous region he presides over. Unperturbed, Taha retorted that the reactionary trend opposed to a unified Sudan is fast regressing. Those who wish to see Sudan fragmented are politically isolated, he insisted. The referendum, Taha unequivocally stated, "will not take place unless pending issues are resolved." Taha repeated the mantra that patriotic Sudanese must opt for unity and strengthening the sovereignty of Sudan. He also warned that southern Sudan's secession is "against history". Taha cannot afford to dawdle on this. Political tensions in southern Sudan augur ill for the country's political future. Therefore, Al-Bashir's right-hand man, his critics contend, must not dabble in southern Sudanese politics or else risk further alienation from the mainstream southern Sudanese opposition to northern Sudanese political hegemony of the country. Taha was somewhat elusive, rather than openly dismissive concerning the fact-finding mission of a United Nations delegation this week to Sudan. The delegation is composed of representatives of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council, including the five permanent members -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China. China is now Sudan's largest trading partner and Western powers are bewailing being outbid by the Chinese in the race for Sudan's vast oil wealth and other natural resources. "We welcome the visitors and hope that they will resuscitate the negotiations between northern and southern Sudanese political forces. Taha, well aware of the UN delegation's determination to visit the war-torn westernmost province of Darfur as part of their fact-finding mission, stressed that "not all members of the UN Security Council are against us" in a thinly veiled reference to the Chinese. Taha, however, declined to directly criticise Salva Kiir's pledge to vote for secession in the upcoming election. He was similarly vague about voting reform. Unless he defines himself more clearly, southern Sudanese politicians will intensify their campaign against unification and northern Sudanese political domination. It is to be hoped that he does. If he doesn't all hell will be let loose. The long wait is over, the countdown to southern Sudanese independence has begun. There is a difference between being pro- independence and supporting the interests of southern Sudan. But there are limits, or there should be to the spiralling ambitions of southerners. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, Taha claimed that "evil forces are at work to undermine Sudan." He is surely correct. The battle for the soul of Sudan goes on. So far, on the whole, temperance and understanding are on the losing side. Taha must articulate nothing less than a new strategy if he is to be acceptable among the southern Sudanese electorate. Pontificating about the referendum is one matter. Dealing with it is another undertaking altogether. Taha cast doubt over preparations for the referendum in oil-rich Abyei. The leaders of southern Sudan are not set to change their tone over this oil-rich enclave. Abyei, which straddles the north- south border, is at the core of hopes to break the Sudanese political deadlock. Kiir is conscious of this fact. He did a fair job with the presidency of southern Sudan and is proud of his record. Kiir should not be overcritical. Taha was trying to do a lot with his pugnacious posturing. Taha concluded that Kiir's statements sound like they are "swimming against the current of history and do not serve the interests of the south and are politically unjustified." Abyei is peopled predominantly by the Dinka Ngok ethnic group but the north claims the disputed territory as its own because it has a sizeable minority of migratory Messeiriya Arab tribesmen and their cattle. The SPLM has warned that the NCP is resettling large numbers of ethnic Arabs permanently in Abyei to change the ethnic composition of Abyei in favour of the Arabs, a claim the NCP disputes. The peace in Abyei has been kept through a cobbled-together system of mutual deterrence between Dinka Ngok and Messeiriya. If the southern Sudanese people decide to secede, the people of Abyei, the Nuba Mountains, southern Blue Nile and Darfur might be tempted to follow suit. Abyei is torn apart by traditional rivalries between the Arab nomadic Messeiriya tribe, indigenous non-Arabs and Dinka Ngok. The referendum scheduled to take place in January 2010 is stipulated by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The crisis concerning Abyei is unresolved. Taha's advice that Kiir's provocative pronouncements were "politically accountable" unleashed a torrent of criticism from southern Sudanese politicians. The ruling National Congress Party of Sudanese of President Al-Bashir and its reluctant, albeit major coalition partner, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), are testing each other's resolve. Much of Sudan's pain is self-inflicted. A botched attempt to rectify the shortcomings of the CPA signed by the SPLM and the government of Al-Bashir in January 2005 has put off the bulk of southern Sudanese. The SPLM is openly sympathetic to the cause of the Darfur armed opposition groups and is giving shelter and support to the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) -- perhaps the most powerful Darfur armed opposition group. The SPLM has traditionally seen itself as the underdog with a strong following in peripheral non-Arab areas of northern Sudan such as the Nuba Mountains of Kordofan, the disputed oil-rich enclave of Abyei and the southern Blue Nile region. If JEM and other political forces in western Sudan and Abyei join forces with the SPLM over the referendum conundrum, then the southern-based movement's political stock will rise even further. At any rate the blessings of northern politicians such as Al-Bashir and Taha have not guaranteed political improvements to their compatriots in the south and west of the country.
