Ethnic tensions and the scramble for oil reserves forewarn of a looming confrontation in Abyei and adjacent borderline areas between northern and southern Sudan, cautions Gamal Nkrumah Spare a thought for Abyei. Prospects for peace in Sudan in the next month or two depend as much on peace and prosperity in Abyei as they do on the result of the referendum on southern Sudan. Abyei, a territory of 10,000 square kilometres in the heart of Sudan is of vital strategic importance and symbolic significance to both northern and southern Sudanese. The ethnic and religious composition of its inhabitants is of critical consequence to the political future of Sudan -- north and south. All politics is local, and Abyei is no exception to the rule. A fresh wave of violence has hit Abyei. The death toll is estimated to have reached 40 over the past week. The British colonial authorities, it must be noted from the outset, created the crisis of Abyei when in 1905 they forcibly transferred the administration of nine ethnic Dinka Ngok chiefdoms to Kordofan. No political or religious opinion, no matter how strongly held at the time, justified the transfer of Abyei to Kordofan. The result of this heinous colonial crime was to perpetuate the suffering of the people of Abyei for more than a century. Arab Misseriya tribesmen moved into Abyei in search for greener pastureland for their livestock displacing in the process the indigenous Dajo people now dispersed in Darfur and other parts of Kordofan and Blue Nile provinces all technically parts of northern Sudan. A substantial number of the local ethnic Dinka Ngok people also migrated to Khartoum in search of better employment opportunities swelling the numbers of the slum-dwelling residents of the shantytowns surrounding Khartoum. The burning question at the moment is who exactly is eligible to vote to decide the political future of oil-rich Abyei. The inhabitants of Abyei were not permitted to vote in the referendum this week deciding the political future of southern Sudan. The Permanent Court of Arbitration based in The Hague, Netherlands, gave the Misseriya tribesmen grazing rights in Abyei together with the Dinka Ngok pastoral peoples. The settled Dinka Ngok people also have grazing rights according to the 2004 Protocol on the Resolution of the Abyei Conflict in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Sudanese government headed by President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) in 2005. Under the terms of the CPA, the people of Abyei are to decide in a "popular consultation" whether the region is to remain administratively part of northern Sudan or whether it is to become part of southern Sudan. Abyei is a hydrocarbon-rich area sandwiched between northern and southern Sudan. Both north and south Sudan therefore covet Abyei. At present the oil-rich enclave has special administrative status. Yet, its political status is untenable. South Sudan sees Abyei as an integral part of the region. Khartoum, in sharp contrast, firmly believes that it is northern territory. Given the history of Abyei it is hardly surprising that the brewing fight between the Dinka Ngok people and the Misseriya Arab tribesmen can only escalate in the coming months. It is a conflict that in turn will cast a long shadow of doubt over the peaceful coexistence of northern and southern Sudan. The Dinka Ngok people are strong supporters of the SPLM, while the Misseriya back the NCP of Al-Bashir. The Misseriya militias are said to be armed to the teeth by the Sudanese armed forces and to have encroached on Dinka Ngok lands massacring defenseless villagers. The SPLM has threatened retaliation. The Abyei crisis has moved online, with Dinka Ngok activists bringing down pro-Sudanese government sites and the Al-Bashir regime facing accusations of disrupting Facebook accounts sympathetic to the cause of Abyei joining southern Sudan. The political future of Abyei hangs in the balance, and so does the future of other borderline areas that straddle the 1,500km fault-line between northern and southern Sudan. Abyei is the barometer, but other equally combustible areas such as southern Kordofan, the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile could easily follow suit and turn into potential trouble spots that would mar the lessons learnt from this week's southern Sudanese referendum. The inhabitants of these areas are administratively governed as integral parts of northern Sudan, but it is clear that their political loyalties lie with their kith and kin in southern Sudan and with the SPLM.
