A new report from the African Narratives think tank reveals that a recent reconciliation agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, brokered by Turkey, is forcing Egypt to re-evaluate its strategic position in the Horn of Africa. The agreement, announced on 11 December 2024, raises significant questions about Egypt's influence in the region and may require a recalibration of its diplomatic and security policies, according to the analysis released on Thursday. The report suggests that Cairo can no longer take its regional role for granted, and must actively respond to these shifting dynamics. The African Narratives report details how relations between Somalia and Ethiopia sharply deteriorated earlier in 2024, following Ethiopia's signing of a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway Somaliland region. This agreement, which granted Ethiopia access to ports and military bases in Somaliland in exchange for initiating the process of recognising Somaliland's independence, triggered a sharp response from Mogadishu, with tensions escalating throughout the year. Somalia's decision to exclude Ethiopian forces from the African Union mission and establish a new mission to commence in early 2025 further highlighted the fractured relationship. The "Ankara Declaration," as the new agreement is known, aims to de-escalate these tensions, the report states. However, the accord notably avoids directly addressing the core disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia, opting instead for technical negotiations to be concluded by the end of February 2025. These talks are intended to establish a framework for cooperation and resolve lingering issues between the two sides. However, the report cautions that the absence of concrete solutions within the declaration itself leaves many questions unanswered. According to the official Turkish statement, the Ankara agreement is limited to an exchange of understandings regarding bilateral principles, with Ethiopia reaffirming its support for Somali unity and sovereignty, while Somalia recognises Ethiopia's need for access to its coast for economic purposes. The report points out that this is essentially a restatement of broad objectives, lacking the tangible commitments necessary to ensure long-term stability. Despite the agreement's limitations, the African Narratives report acknowledges that it does present certain advantages for the involved parties. However, for Egypt, it presents a complex strategic puzzle. Turkey's mediation, primarily driven by its ambition to become a major player in the Horn of Africa, benefits from this accord, the report suggests. Ankara's influence in Somalia is substantial, including economic aid and military support. This agreement reinforces Turkey's role as a regional mediator, enhancing its strategic position. Ethiopia, too, gains by securing access to Somali ports, reducing regional tensions, and allowing its government to focus on internal conflicts. However, for Somalia the benefits of the deal, especially on military issues, are still limited. The Somali government, for its part, hopes to strengthen stability and create new economic avenues. However, Mogadishu remains wary of granting Addis Ababa military privileges on its coasts, given the implications for its sovereignty. This cautious approach highlights a potential point of contention in the future. The report makes clear that several obstacles could impede this fragile reconciliation. The presence of terrorist groups, most notably Al-Shabaab and the growing presence of ISIS, could pose significant threats to the region, particularly if Somalia relies on certain ports. Further, the volatile nature of the Middle East, coupled with increasing global competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, could undermine the stability of the entire region. The report then turns its attention to Egypt's strategic dilemma. Egypt recently supported Somalia by providing military equipment and reaffirming its commitment to Somali sovereignty. However, the rapprochement between Somalia and Ethiopia creates a complex situation. While Somalia continues to view Egypt as an important military partner, its willingness to engage with Ethiopia on economic issues complicates matters. Egypt now risks losing influence in the region, as Somalia seeks to balance its relationships with both Cairo and Addis Ababa. Egypt's existing military ties to Somalia may not be enough to counter the shift towards closer cooperation between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. Furthermore, African Narratives report argues that Ethiopia's potential access to the Red Sea coast could pose a significant challenge to Egyptian interests, especially if it leads to increased Ethiopian influence over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, which are critical for the Suez Canal. Economically, the report adds, the agreement could limit Egyptian investment in the region, particularly given Turkey's rising influence. Though Egypt remains a significant presence in Africa, the reconciliation could have a palpable effect on its regional sway. Despite these concerns, the report suggests that "Somalia will not risk its relationship with Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti." and that Mogadishu will likely resist granting Ethiopia military access to its ports. Additionally, Turkey, having recently improved its relations with Egypt, is unlikely to risk a confrontation that might jeopardise navigation to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The report also highlights that Egypt is a key player in the region, with strong ties to Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia. This was apparent on Friday evening, as the United Nations Security Council has authorised a new African Union stabilisation and support mission in Somalia, known as AUSSOM, which will replace the current, larger AU anti-terrorism operation from 1 January 2025. During the Security Council meeting, the Federal Government of Somalia declared that Ethiopia would not be part of AUSSOM. Somalia stated that it has secured the necessary 11,000 security personnel through existing bilateral agreements with other countries.
The report proposes that Egypt should seize the opportunity to formulate a cooperation agreement with both Somalia and Ethiopia, aimed at economic integration, countering regional terrorist threats, and promoting stability. This cooperation could also provide Egypt a way to safeguard its own interests, while ensuring the security of the Suez Canal. Turkey could act as a viable sponsor for such a trilateral agreement. Ultimately, the report concludes that the success of the Somali-Ethiopian agreement remains contingent on future negotiations and political realities. For Egypt, it mandates a serious reassessment of its strategic role in the Horn of Africa, requiring proactive measures to safeguard its influence and protect its interests in the region. The report stresses that Cairo can no longer rely on the status quo and must adopt a more dynamic and adaptable approach. African Narratives for Strategic Studies is a Pan-African nonprofit policy research organisation committed to reshaping the global understanding of Africa while addressing the continent's most pressing challenges. With a core focus on democracy, security, energy, economic development and human rights, they amplify African voices and perspectives to foster informed discourse, inspire innovative solutions, and promote sustainable progress.
