Three major North African cities – Alexandria, Casablanca and Tunis – face losses of more than $1 billion each, over the next two decades, as risks of natural disasters intensify with the onset of climate change. A ground-breaking study shows the increasing environmental threat the three cities face, such as flooding, storm surges and coastal erosion. Morocco's Bouregreg Valley- an area slated for rapid development – could face major risks unless decision-makers employ climate-smart planning. Particularly, as they develop housing and commercial structures in low-lying, vulnerable areas. The World Bank-led study, “Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa,” has been carried out between June 2009 and June 2011 with financial support from the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the Norwegian Trust Fund Private Sector and Infrastructure (NTF-PSI) and the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD). The Arab Academy of Science, Technology and Maritime Transportation in Alexandria, and the European Space Agency provided analytical support. The Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) has played a key role in the dissemination of the study and public discussion of its findings and recommendations. The study has been carried out by a consortium of French consulting companies, headed by Egis-BCEOM International and including IAU-RIF and BRGM, in consultation with local partners. Climate change, under any scenario intensifies the exposure “Already, these cities experience comparatively high losses from natural disasters such as floods and storm surges,” says Anthony G. Bigio, Senior Urban Specialist at the World Bank, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and coordinator of the study. “Climate change, under any scenario, intensifies the exposure.” The IPCC has categorized the Middle East and North Africa as the second most vulnerable region in the world to climate change impacts. The risks facing the three cities covered by the study are similar to those faced by many others on the southern Mediterranean coast. High levels of urbanization and population growth further increase the risks, which place more lives, livelihoods and structures in danger from natural hazards and extreme weather events. In 2010, some 60 million people inhabited the region's coastal cities and the number is expected to swell to 100 million by 2030. Alexandria, Casablanca and Tunis—home to over 9.5 million people in 2010—can expect a combined population of around 15 million by 2030. The Bouregreg Valley anticipates an influx of more than 140,000 people. The rapid urbanization also underscores the fact that the region's coastal cities play an enormously important role—economically, culturally and politically. Disruption and damage from natural disasters would reverberate on a national scale in all the countries. Similar characteristics but different vulnerabilities The three cities share a number of similar characteristics, but the study shows that each faces a specific set of unique vulnerabilities and risks. Alexandria anticipates a 65 percent surge in population by the year 2030, from 4.1 million to 6.8 million, adding to human density in already vulnerable, low-lying areas. As more people crowd into deteriorating structures in the old parts of the city, informal settlements, which currently house one third of the city's population, will likely expand. Further settlements are expected in surrounding wetlands and other vulnerable, low-lying areas. The risks of coastal erosion and flooding increase significantly over the next two decades. Alexandria is expected to adopt a strategic urban plan, which would direct future urban growth, define city limits, and establish a land-use program. It would outline rules for densities, building heights and open space ratios. The plan would need to reflect location-specific assessments of Alexandria's exposure to natural disaster risks and climate change impacts. Other recommendations include: more robust early warning systems covering all types of disasters, active management of coastal areas, and improved communication among agencies involved in disaster prevention and response. Water resources management will play an increasingly important role as the impact of climate change grows more visible. Specific goals include greater efficiency in water consumption, better control of runoff and discharge sources, and routine maintenance of the sewage system. Meanwhile, the city could invest in upgraded drainage systems and mobile water pumps to deal with periods of flooding. BM
