A chorus of voices has expressed concerns regarding Egypt's vulnerability to climate change; yet there remain misgivings as to whether Egypt can confront the epic environmental challenges to come in the not too distant future. Environmental challenges bought do not exist in a vacuum; instead the state and population would be plagued with social problems ranging from food, health, water security and employment to financial competitiveness and economic viability. The 700-page Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change in 2006 left little doubt that there is now overwhelming evidence to suggest climate change presents grave risks on a global scale requiring an equally urgent global response. Professor Mohamed El-Raey's comprehensive report in 2010 describes Egypt as of the more susceptible Arab States partly due to the coastal zones on which Egypt is so dependent. These delta regions house a sizeable Egyptian population and the coastal regions constitute the country's arable land used for agriculture and crops (supplying up to 60 percent of the country's food). With the prediction of sea level rises and reduced flow of fresh water into the Nile (which would threaten the belt of fertile lands along the Nile due to salination) the feeling of foreboding becomes justified. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated North Africa may “well exceed the limits of their economically land-based water resources by 2025”, leading to possible water refugees; in Egypt and the Northern Africa region in general there are inadequate drought-mitigating programs. This is supported by the United National Economic Commission for Africa who revealed that “North Africa is located in a region of the world with the lowest water potential, being dependent by more than 40 percent on external water resources, the majority of the States have mobilized almost their entire potential in underground water.” Moreover, Egypt must consider that desertification is widely catalogued as one of the leading causes of the world's environmental refugees and migrants. These figures can only be expected to intensify due to water shortages. Desert expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa will displace the native populations, there is a possibility these desperate citizens may migrate to Egypt and North Africa, squeezing escalating populations into an already constrained territory. The same expansion may equally lead North African inhabitants to migrate northwards towards the Mediterranean, presenting a new set of security concerns. The United National Environmental Programme has highlighted North Africa as a potential hotspot for increased risk in insecurity, adding, “The probabilities for political crisis and migratory pressure will intensify due to the interaction between escalating drought and water scarcity, high population growth, a drop in agricultural potential and poor political problem-solving capacities.” Furthermore, climate change may trigger migration upheaval. According to the New Economics Foundation (UK), Egypt is set to lose at least 2 million hectares of land in the fertile Nile Delta, in turn displacing up to 10 million people, including nearly the entire population of the city of Alexandria. These persons would effectively be forced to leave their homes and livelihoods with a bleak possibility of return. This is further supported by the United National Environmental Programmes which claims “the populous Nile Delta will be at risk from sea-level rise and salinization in agricultural areas,” which may in turn render the area inhabitable. There are numerous projections as to the figure of climate refugees, suffice to say they will number in the thousands at the very least and most likely in the millions. British academic Norman Myers predicts global warming could lead to swathes of populations being displaced by disruptions of monsoon systems, drought of unprecedented severity and duration, sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Given that Egypt and the wider Northern African region are especially vulnerable to the disasters outlined by Myers, it ought to propel Egypt into uniting with a host of actors, utilizing legal and social instruments and development projects to deal with the oncoming calamities and ensure it can consolidate its population in a secure manner. Desertification at an alarming rate, along with sea level rise coupled with population growth in the region does not bode well for the future. Professor El Raey of the University of Alexandria outlined options for Egypt including, but not limited, to an establishment of a greenbelt, sand dune fixation and changes to land use, as well as stressing the importance of establishing institutions that would monitor and enforce environmental policies. Egypt urgently needs to invest in small scale climate projects such as coastal zone planning, rain water catchments (i.e. in coastal areas) drought mitigating schemes and to build upon its existing national campaigns for public enlightenment. A World Bank Report in 2002 underlined pollution in Egypt costs over $2 billion with industry as the primary culprits, however Professor El Raey in 2009 brought to light that Egypt has adapted the Clean Development Mechanism. Egypt has made strides; it was one of the foremost Arab State's to join the global movement that commenced in the early 1990s to confront the perils of climate change by ratifying the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1999. Furthermore, Egypt has also created national institutions to this effect with the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency followed by the Ministry of State for the Environmental Affairs and the recent National Committee for Climate Change (2007) all symbolizing Egypt's commitment to safeguarding the environment. There are efforts underway, targeting students and younger children, including the Bezara awareness campaign and the Green Corner. As well as disseminating environmental information these initiatives aim to encourage a change in behaviors thereby creating a generation aware of its responsibility to the environment. Nonetheless, a renewed momentum to resurrect the principles these institutions stand for is desperately needed, and this can only be done fruitfully with the participation of the Egyptian populace, an inclusive process that involves peoples from all echelons of society, without whom the fight against climate change and subsequent environmental degradation cannot be started, let alone won. Furthermore, Islamic principles reinforce the protection of the environment and resources. These include the conscientious conservation of water and humans acting as custodians of the Earth that ought not to disrupt the balance established by God. There is also literature on consumption patterns and waste that is allied to the environmental cause. The environment is a gift for all ages bequeathed to us by God; thereby its preservation is incumbent on each serving generation for the next. The relationship between humans and the environment is reciprocal; this precept rings true be it from a religious or secular perspective. This dependency and utilization claims duties on us such as conservation. People across the world are experiencing increasing heat waves, unpredictable weather events in the form of floods, crop failures. (Egypt, being a large importer of wheat, has meant the population has suffered from high food prices as a result.) Many of them may be not be attributing it to what we know as the phenomenon of climate change, but they are nonetheless experiencing its effects, same problem different name. In summary then, the legendary Nile is Egypt's' most precious resource, civilizations have built, fought and survived because of it, and it is now under threat. The Nile is overpopulated, faced with threats of sea level rise and salinity. It prophesizes famine, flooding and eventual water scarcity if the state of affairs do not change direction. It will conquer the surrounding land with it. Added to this is the no less alarming issue of desertification set to displace the population. And of course as the population grows so too does the demand for food, water and energy. Overcrowding in an already resource-stretched area of land leads us to the migration paradox whereby people would be uprooted from their homes and communities because the area they live in is no longer a feasible habitat to survive in. Although natural conditions play a principal role in the vulnerability of the environment in Egypt, this is further exacerbated by the lack of perception as to the scale of the issue at all levels of society. Educating youth, farmers, mothers, religious leaders, the military and the politicians is vital. And a solemn commitment to conserving and executing adaptation strategies by a new government is imperative. Egypt must now ensure it keeps pace with emerging challenges, by developing stringent environmental policies and employ somewhat radical approaches to combating environmental degradation. The pervasive skepticism as to Egypt's ability to adapt can yet be dispelled with judicious efforts and collaboration by engaging on a local, national and regional scale. A coordinated effort is more likely to generate success and to circumventing the impending environmental crises set to afflict the continent. The last few months, the world has watched events unfold in Egypt, allowing us to glimpse the extraordinary fortitude and courage of the Egyptian people, let us hope then that some of that spirit and energy can be lent to the climate movement. Saima Raza is a doctoral student at the University of Sussex, UK, investigating environmental displacement and North Africa.
