A recent seminar organised by JICA (Japan International Co-operation Agency) Alimonies Association in Egypt highlighted climate change, but from a very Egyptian point of view. The seminar, which was attended by experts and NGO representatives, discussed climate change and its effects on Egyptian tourism, agriculture and water resources. It also discussed the role Egyptian NGOs can play in combating the problems resulting from climate change. The speakers voiced their fears, but also offered some reasonable solutions to one of the grimmest problems facing the world today. Ihab Shaarawy of the Egyptian Mail was there to probe the experts' fears and hopes for climate change in Egypt. While not a major contributor to the world's total GHG (GreenHouse Gas) emissions, Egypt as well as many other developing countries will be seriously affected by climate change, which is expected to hurt their economies, which are already weak. In Egypt, one of the big threats will be the expected submerging of the Delta. Data taken from beaches in Egypt between 1930 and 1980 show that the sea level rose during those fifty years by about 11.35cm in Rasheed and Damietta, in line with global standards. Studies have also confirmed a decline in the shoreline in modern times, which has led to worries that Egypt's second largest city, Alexandria, could soon see itself submerged in the Mediterranean Sea. A report issued in May 2007 gives details of the environmental changes expected to occur in the coming 18 years in the Mediterranean basin. It gives a striking example of what could take place in the Nile Delta, stating that the waters of the Mediterranean are expected to rise about 50cm, submerging 1,800sqkm of Egypt's most fertile land and negatively affecting 3.8 million people. But recent studies assert that the polar caps are melting faster than expected which has been further proven through recent satellite images. This could increase the Mediterranean's level by a further 50cm. This possible rise in sea level by a total 1 metre would submerge 4,500sqkm of Nile Delta land and affect about 6 million people. Such scenarios may seem very pessimistic, but some climatic anomalies have already begun to occur in Egypt. In mid-April 2007, hail fell for half an hour on agricultural land near the Mediterranean city of el-Arish in North Sinai, completely destroying the crops. Mid-August 2007 saw heavy rainfall in the Elba Protectorate in the south of Egypt's Eastern Desert, where rain rarely falls. In September 2007, torrential rain hit the city of Matrouh on the North Coast, disrupting traffic and damaging electric wiring in local homes unused to rain. "The changes in the environmental and climatic conditions are undeniable. Ex-US Vice-President Al Gore was given a Nobel Prize for showing some of these changes in a documentary," said Samia el-Marsafawi, Deputy Director of the Agro Meteorology & Climate Change Unit at the Cairo-based Agricultural Research Centre. "For the millennia before the Industrial Revolution, when humans started pumping industrial emissions into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels had held fairly steady at about 280ppm,” she said. "Carbon dioxide concentrations rose gradually but steadily until the mid-20th century, when they started to skyrocket. Today the level is 387ppm, with many analysts expecting the globe to hit 450ppm or even 550ppm before world economies ‘decarbonise' sufficiently to radically reduce emissions”. According to her, climate changes are a fact, but predicting their effects is not easy. The Egyptian expert referred to another document known as the ‘Stern Report', in which the economist Nicholas Stern prepared in 2006 for the British Government. In this report, Stern not only talked about climate changes, but also about the economic changes that might result. "But what attracts attention in this report is his notion about the poor countries. Stern states that the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed ��" the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And, if and when the damage appears, it will be too late to reverse the process. In talking about the economic effects of climate change in Egypt, we should concentrate on several sectors that are seriously at risk. The agricultural sector One of the sectors in Egypt most threatened by climate change and global warming is agriculture. Experts predict that it will lead to a decrease in wheat and maize yields in Egypt, threatening national grain production, which is already short of meeting local demand. "The problem will be graver with those strategic crops which we already import in large quantities, while, at the same time, the population is still growing," said Samia of the Agricultural Research Centre. "I predict that wheat yields will drop by 9 per cent if the temperature rises by two degrees Centigrade, while an increase of 3.5 degrees will lead to the loss of 18 per cent of this vital crop, while its water production will rise by 2.5 per cent," she said. Maize yields, she added, will decrease by 19 per cent by 2050, when the temperature is expected to rise by 3.5 degrees, while its water consumption is expected to rise by about 8 per cent. As for rice, climate change may lead to the loss of nearly 11 per cent of production, while its water consumption will rise by 16 per cent. Sugarcane is going to lose 24.5 per cent and consume 2.3 per cent more water. "Cotton will be among the very few crops that will increase because of global warming," continued Samia, adding that a rise of 2 degrees Centigrade will lead to an increase of 17 per cent in yields of this crop, which is suitable for hot areas. "But at the same time the water consumption of cotton will rise by 10 per cent. In hot weather, several crops diseases will flourish, blighting fruit and vegetables." Samia warned that fish production will also be affected by the rise in temperature, which could make schools of fish change their routes and places of living. Some kinds of fish might diminishing, while others might flourish. As for livestock, she predicted that their appetite will be affected by the higher temperatures. "And, after all, people may resort to cutting the areas cultivated with animal fodder to compensate for the reduction in other crops,” said Samia. "But things might be less grim if we swiftly implement certain policies for adaptation," Samia said, explaining that these policies include using new kinds of seeds which grow more quickly, are highly resistant to disease and need less water. "We should also try to establish the best time for growing certain crops and use alternatives to those which consume a lot of water, such as rice and sugarcane." Referring once again to the ‘Stern Report', she said that Stern stated that climate change threatened the basic elements of life for people around the world ��" access to water, food production, health, and use of land and the environment. He also suggests that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the cost. According to reports from Egypt's Ministry of the Environment, climate change is also expected to affect people, with direct and indirect adverse impacts on human health, which will be aggravated by high population densities. Direct impacts include increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases, physiological disorders, skin cancer, eye cataracts, deaths and injuries, respiratory ailments, heatstroke and heat-related illnesses, as well as a weakening of the public health infrastructure. The indirect impacts involve factors such as demographic dislocation and socio-economic disruption. Water resources While suffering water resources scarcity and a constantly growing population, Egypt is expecting more problems with water resources. "Climate change will lead to more floods and droughts, as well as a greater demand of water for food and people," said Maha Tawfiq, Director of the Training Sector for Water Resources and Irrigation, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. Egypt depends on the Nile for almost 97 per cent of its water requirements. It shares the Nile Basin with nine other countries, which are desperate for more water. "The Nile Basin countries already suffer food and water insecurity, poverty and environmental degradation," said Maha, warning that the effect of climate change on these countries will be grave, as the poor are the most vulnerable. Experts put the number of people who will suffer either water scarcity or stress in Africa at 480 million by 2025. According to Maha, the Nile is highly sensitive to climate change, as about 5 per cent of precipitation becomes runoff. "Discharges would further increase uncertainties for Nile water management as predictions of response by the Nile flow to climate change vary hugely, from a 30 per cent increase in Nile flow to a 77 per cent flow reduction," Maha said. The tourism industry
Another sector on which climate change may have a grave effect is tourism. The rise in sea level threatens Egypt's long Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts, with potential damage to the tourism industry, a major contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to data from Egyptian Ministry of Tourism, Egypt attracted more than 9 million tourists last year, while the tourism sector brings in annual revenues of $7.5 billion, constituting Egypt's main source of foreign currency. It is also the primary source of income for 12 per cent of Egypt's labour force. Seventy industries depend on tourism, particularly in light of the increasing maritime activities on Egypt's coasts, which are home to around 600 hotels and resorts. The seas are full of coral reefs, submerged monuments and antiquities and enjoy a very favourable climate. Of the 9 million tourists that visited Egypt last year, 3 million were divers. "Although climate change may have a positive impact on tourism, for example by extending the summer season into September and October, allowing greater use of the giant tourist projects on the coasts, some recent studies make one fearful about the effects of climate change on the industry," said Mahmoud el-Kaissouni, the Environmental Adviser to the Egyptian Minister of Tourism. According to him, a recent study details the negative impacts of climatic change, including the bleaching of coral reefs as sea temperatures rise, the drying out of rare mangroves and increasing winds that would lead to the gradual decline of coastal tourist activities. He suggested that the world should try to find a collective solution, as an individual solution would be very expensive. "Why don't we revive the project proposed in 1928 by German engineer Herman Soergel to build a barrage across the Straits of Gibraltar between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean and another barrage across the Suez Canal to control the waters of the Mediterranean Sea?" El-Kaissouni added that Egypt needed a decree to set up a national council at the highest level, with the necessary authority to issue enforceable decisions to find solutions for the effects of climate change and global warming in Egypt, as well as to prepare for dealing with imminent catastrophe, particularly along Egypt's coasts. More efforts still needed Egypt is among the first Arab countries to join the co-operative global efforts to confront climate change threats. Since the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992, Egypt has ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol, signed on 15/3/99. Egypt is also an active participant in both African and regional conferences and workshops related to climate change. The establishment of the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) in 1982, followed by the creation of the Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs in 1997, signifies Egypt's commitment to environmental protection. However, the many conferences about this issue have failed to reach a solution. And, although we have in Egypt around 3,000 NGOs working in the environmental field, their impact is very weak. "In Egypt, environmental NGOs still need resources and must also co-operate with other NGOs," said Waheed Imam, head of the Egyptian Environmental NGOs Federation. "If Egyptian NGOs in Egypt and their counterparts abroad worked together we could exert more pressure," he stressed, adding that the latest summit in Copenhagen was disappointing,” he added "We must prepare ourselves for the coming summit with a lobby of NGOs which are able to reach reasonable solutions."
