Without action, many of Egypt's coastal areas may disappear, writes Mohamed El Raey Indications of serious changes in the world's climate have been evident over the past few decades. Recently, scientific studies have shown how grave the problem is, as well as the magnitude of its negative effects on all sectors of development. According to these studies, human activity has led to a rise in the earth's average temperature at a rate of 0.3 to 0.4 degrees every 10 years, which is unprecedented in recorded history. This rapid and continuous rise in temperature has been traced to the increase in greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. The accompanying figure shows the increased rate of change in the earth's average temperature since the beginning of the 1990s following a relatively stable rate over the previous 1,000 years. Projections made by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate an expected rise in average temperatures of between two to 4.5 degrees centigrade by the end of the present century. A rise in sea levels of between nine to 59 centimetres is also projected, which would lead to unprecedented changes in an environment that has remained stable over many eras. How climate change will affect Egypt The high increase in the population growth rate and rapid spread of urbanisation in Egypt are cause for concern due to the resultant increase in air and water pollution. Population growth has obviously intensified demand for resources, including water, energy, waste disposal and sewage services. The rise in temperature is expected to further exacerbate the dearth in drinking water, increase pressure on land resources, and lead to a rise in the incidence of sand and dust storms. Increased usage of fertilisers and pesticides is also expected to exacerbate water and food pollution. There are conflicting projections of the future availability of Nile water as a result of climate change. While some simulation studies foresee an increase in Nile water levels by 25 per cent over current yearly levels, a larger number of studies project declines reaching up to 70 per cent. The variation in results indicates that more robust studies are needed to provide a more solid base for the design of public policy. However, the most plausible projections seem to point to less availability of Nile water for Egypt in the future. Furthermore, the global rise in sea levels by eight to 59 centimetres, added to expected local land subsidence (a result of tectonic movements and continued pumping of petroleum and ground water, estimated at another 30 centimetres within the next 100 years), will lead to a loss of a many low-lying coastal areas and to salt water intrusion into a number of coastal wells. The combined effect will also lead to a rise in the water table in coastal regions that would ruin the agricultural productivity of low- lying areas. The adverse effects of climate change also include an increase in the frequency and severity of sandstorms, and longer periods of drought followed by more intense flooding. This is expected to lead to public health problems, including the spread of epidemics, especially in poorer regions. More generally, national income will decline and will in turn result in the spread of social and political problems. The effect of rising sea levels on coastal Egypt Egypt's Nile Delta Mediterranean coastline is one of the areas that will be most affected by the rise in sea levels, as a large portion of it is itself below sea level and is subsiding. Within the Delta itself, or close to it, lie some of the most important Egyptian cities, such as Alexandria, Rosetta and Port Said. Further west, on the coastline, are Marina and Marsa Matrouh. A detailed study of these cities was undertaken making use of satellite images and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and assuming specific scenarios of sea level rise. This resulted in a number of estimates of expected losses. Alexandria : A rise in sea levels of about 50 centimetres, assuming no protection work is undertaken, will lead to the loss of a number of tourist beaches and flooding of some agricultural and industrial areas. About 194,000 future jobs will be lost (151,000 in industry, 34,000 in tourism, and 9,000 in agriculture) and about 1.5 million persons will be displaced. Rosetta : A rise of 50 centimetres in sea levels will result in: increased loss of coastline areas; the destruction of a large portion of Rosetta's historic Islamic monuments; the flooding of a large portion of the agricultural land adjacent to the coast and the loss of 30,000 future employment opportunities. Port Said : The city lies in the midst of large body of water with the Mediterranean to the north, Lake Manzala to the west, and the Suez Canal, the city of Port Fouad, Shark El Tafria Port and Sahl El Tina to the east. If protection projects are not undertaken, large areas close to the coast near the Suez Canal will be lost. Marsa Matrouh : Considered relatively secure even though the study indicates that many beaches and the museum built at the location of Rommel's World War II command centre may be immersed. Marina Tourist Village : There are indications that some of its low-lying areas and those on the coastline will be in danger of flooding with seawater. Adaptation Adaptation starts with identifying and assessing the vulnerabilities of various sectors to potential climate change impacts. It then involves determining and assessing available options to deal with the effects of expected climate change through a shift in public policies and/or the erection of protective structures such as dams or the like. The 2006 Stern Report presented to the British prime minister stressed the importance of the provision of speedy assistance by the international community to developing countries seriously affected by adverse climate change to help them in their adaptation efforts. The report pointed to the fact that poorer countries will be the most affected despite the fact that they are not as responsible for the greenhouse gases. It also stressed that while addressing climate change today would cost one per cent of national income, waiting for the adverse effects in the future would represent a yearly loss of 10 per cent of national income. Recommendations It is clear that a number of important economic and commercial centres in Egypt will be exposed to the adverse effects of climate change, with the coastal cities of the Nile Delta, in particular, being most affected. It is urgent that strategic adaptation policies and plans are put in place and strong institutions and systems of supervision to enforce environmental laws, are established. Most importantly: a national institute for climate change should be set up to build capacity and train human resources, design the required institutional systems and coordinate action among various sectors. The institute would focus on the study of possible adaptation policies while also spreading awareness of climate change effects and publicising success stories in the different sectors. The use of wind and solar energy for water desalinisation must be promoted and adequate financing for scientific research in these areas must be provided. Local human resource skills in the field of mathematical regional circulation models must be developed so as to allow future projections with the high degree of accuracy required for policy formulation. Studies should be undertaken to determine the possible adaptation choices for the water, agriculture and coastal sectors that would make use of simple and low cost technologies. Environmental laws should be firmly enforced and environmental assessments of projects must be made mandatory. National projects should take into consideration expected climate change effects. A comprehensive institutional mechanism for the protection of coastal areas must be established with the aim of coordinating the efforts of the research community and implementation agencies. Non-governmental organisations should be encouraged to raise awareness among decision makers and the public on the dangers posed by climate change and the necessity for reducing over-consumption. * The writer is professor of environmental studies at Alexandria University.
